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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX
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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The airport was gusting to 74 kt last hour.

Yep.   Airport is west side of island, Nassau and most of the high value real estate is east.  That new Chinese project on the NW coast might have gotten it worse, but for Paradise Island it LOOKS like it was a nonevent, by their standards.  Most of the newer $$ development is built to pretty good standards.

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9 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

FWIW, word I'm hearing from Nassau (where my wife has business connections) is Cat 1 conditions.  Eyewall missed west.  It's splitting b/w Andros and New Providence.  Folks are kissing the ground as we speak.

I guarantee you it isn't just Cat 1 conditions just west of the airport.....

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12 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Sure, in the tongue of the ocean, but there's a lot of shelf water over the carbonate platform around there.  IIRC, there's some work that shows that even at equal temps, hurricanes do better over deeper warm water, though the rationale for that isn't clear to me (it doesn't feel like you'd have upwelling issues when you have no thermocline)

Felix did well in the very shallow waters east of Nicaragua.

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4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Yep.   Airport is west side of island, Nassau and most of the high value real estate is east.  That new Chinese project on the NW coast might have gotten it worse, but for Paradise Island it LOOKS like it was a nonevent, by their standards.  Most of the newer $$ development is built to pretty good standards.

Silly comment considering the eye is currently just west of the island.  you giving the all clear for them?  should they head out and start the cleanup?  cmon man

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Just now, hazwoper said:

Silly comment considering the eye is currently just west of the island.  you giving the all clear for them?  should they head out and start the cleanup?  cmon man

Actually, yes.   The eye missed.  Hopefully we'll see the same near-miss on the FL coast tonight.

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2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Here that, Nassau...Drz1111 says you can head out and start the cleanup.  Don't worry about the current 60mph sustained winds in the center of the island and the winds sustained over hurricane force in the west.  All clear...

Well also to note, we have not heard from JOSH in the past 2 hours... he was giving updates several an hour.  not sure what that means, but i hope everything is OK? 

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Just now, allgame830 said:

Well also to note, we have not heard from JOSH in the past 2 hours... he was giving updates several an hour.  not sure what that means, but i hope everything is OK? 

Likely scenario is that the power went out along with his Wifi. I imagine cell towers aren't doing too good either at the moment.

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Just now, allgame830 said:

Well also to note, we have not heard from JOSH in the past 2 hours... he was giving updates several an hour.  not sure what that means, but i hope everything is OK? 

He is probably fine, just lost wifi in all likelihood. 

 

Let's see what happens as Matt heads towards open warm waters.

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1 minute ago, Scott747 said:

Josh is fine. I spoke with him a little while ago to confirm that the eyewall was looking like a miss.

Forgot to pass along the news that it was a career defining miss - But I think he will recover....

he'll be ok. it happens to the best of people. i understand he's only human, as I am sure most of you do to. he'll get the next one.

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2 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

he'll be ok. it happens to the best of people. i understand he's only human, as I am sure most of you do to. he'll get the next one.

It is also extremely difficult to chase in a small island chain. He couldn't adjust his position like he could in previous chases.

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2 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

he'll be ok. it happens to the best of people. i understand he's only human, as I am sure most of you do to. he'll get the next one.

He's always said he doesn't like island chasing for this exact reason.  The career defining miss is just loltastic.  Josh is an amazing guy who lives the dream most of us have as weather enthusiasts.  He made an attempt to intercept.  How could he have predicted a possible FL landfall when he was making his calculations on the right place to intercept.  The data didn't suggest it.  He made a good try at it.  Can't sit here and Monday morning QB the deal. 

 

 

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