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PTC Matthew

PaEasternWX

By PaEasternWX,
in Tropical Headquarters

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NYC10023

NYC10023

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, homedis said:

I've been following this thread for a while now, and the one thing I have noticed and really don't agree with is that Miami-Dade County is still under a Tropical Storm Warning... 

 

Same here. I have friends on South Beach I was talking to, it's life as normal pretty much. A sudden, unexpected jog (ala Hurricane Charley) and there's a lot of people in a lot of trouble

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Tibet

Tibet

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, homedis said:

I've been following this thread for a while now, and the one thing I have noticed and really don't agree with is that Miami-Dade County is still under a Tropical Storm Warning... 

The combined "wisdom" of reddit has been discussing that for a bit now... always thought the strategy was the act on the side of being overly cautious.. considering this thing is right on FL's doorstep they need to be making a decision here very soon if they are going to upgrade that and order evacs.

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homedis

homedis

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ny10019 said:

Same here. I have friends on South Beach I was talking to, it's life as normal pretty much. A sudden, unexpected jog (ala Hurricane Charley) and there's a lot of people in a lot of trouble

 

 

1 minute ago, Tibet said:

The combined "wisdom" of reddit has been discussing that for a bit now... always thought the strategy was the act on the side of being overly cautious.. considering this thing is right on FL's doorstep they need to be making a decision here very soon if they are going to upgrade that and order evacs.

 

Exactly my thinking. My cousin goes to the University of Miami and said that most people think there is a Tropical Storm coming with rain and some wind. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

I checked the forecast points in the 03z NHC update and they are something like 20-30 nm offshore from Cape Canaveral to Atlantic Beach near JAX. Not that this means much in terms of landfall or no landfall, but in purely statistical terms it means 60% chance no defined landfall (just a scrape at worst) and 40% chance of a landfall but that includes maybe a 20% half-segment that would be minimal landfall (eye moving up the coast). 

So in other words it remains more or less a nowcast situation for the Florida coast. This is too close to call, sort of a hanging chad of a hurricane. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, homedis said:

 

Exactly my thinking. My cousin goes to the University of Miami and said that most people think there is a Tropical Storm coming with rain and some wind. 

If the projected track holds up, it pretty much will be a windy, rainy day in Miami. The hurricane force winds won't be more than 70 miles or so from the center and Miami will be on the weak side of the eye. 

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bugalou

bugalou

Posted
Posted

The storm is becoming more and more symmetrical from all quadrants.  The eye wall is blowing up and now convection is starting to fire in the E side of the eyewall.  Going into the overnight hours, everyone better watch out because this thing has all the signs and conditions to really crank up in a hurry.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
Just now, bugalou said:

The storm is becoming more and more symmetrical from all quadrants.  The eye wall is blowing up and now convection is starting to fire in the SE corner of the eyewall.  Going into the overnight hours, everyone better watch out because this thing has all the signs and conditions to really crank up in a hurry.

Crank up and get cranky.

Folks inland need to take heed - please.

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Random Chaos

Random Chaos

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I apologize, but what exactly does this mean? Is this a potential strength based on current observations?

Dvorak ratings are an objective way to analyze tropical storm strength based on IR data. The Advanced Dvorak Technique that CIMSS uses is an automated system for determining these T-numbers, rather than the human method that are provided by SSD (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html) and other sources.

Below is an example Dvorak image from IR. It uses a specific scale rendering to pick out eye, spiral bands, and temperature features that go into estimating storm strength.

bd0.gif

Here's a screenshot from a really old (and no longer existing) website about how to read this:

Screen%20Shot%202016-10-05%20at%2011.42.

Also from SSD - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html : 

  CI        MWS         MWS         MSLP           MSLP          Saffir-Simpson   
Number    (Knots)      (MPH)     (Atlantic)    (NW Pacific)         Category     
 1         25 KTS      29 MPH                                     (Approximate)
 1.5       25 KTS      29 MPH      
 2         30 KTS      35 MPH      1009 mb        1000 mb
 2.5       35 KTS      40 MPH      1005 mb         997 mb
 3         45 KTS      52 MPH      1000 mb         991 mb
 3.5       55 KTS      63 MPH       994 mb         984 mb
 4         65 KTS      75 MPH       987 mb         976 mb        1  (64-83 KTS)
 4.5       77 KTS      89 MPH       979 mb         966 mb        1  (64-83 KTS); 2  (84-96 KTS)
 5         90 KTS     104 MPH       970 mb         954 mb        2  (84-96 KTS); 3  (97-113 KTS)
 5.5      102 KTS     117 MPH       960 mb         941 mb        3  (97-113 KTS)
 6        115 KTS     132 MPH       948 mb         927 mb        4  (114-135 KTS)
 6.5      127 KTS     146 MPH       935 mb         914 mb        4  (114-135 KTS)
 7        140 KTS     161 MPH       921 mb         898 mb        5  (136+  KTS)
 7.5      155 KTS     178 MPH       906 mb         879 mb        5  (136+  KTS)
 8        170 KTS     196 MPH       890 mb         858 mb        5  (136+  KTS)

 

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LikesNaturesFury

LikesNaturesFury

Posted
Posted

I have no meteorological training, education or expertise. And I have no desire to distract from the near-term negative effects of Matthew on the east coast of Florida. I hope the forecast is wrong, and wish for the best for any and all in the areas currently facing a very bad forecast. But I'm wondering if anyone has been looking at the NAVGEM. Two days before the (previous) track was said to bring the storm near to the outer banks, then up the coast, perhaps to NY or New England, NAVGEM predicted it. Two days later that was (essentially) the NHC forecast. Yesterday, during the day, before the NHC significant track change which showed half of a loop, NAVGEM said that the storm would turn in pretty much the same path and weaken significantly. The model had it stall there (yesterday, during the day) at the end of the loop. Today (same as yesterday), the NAVGEM has the storm moving on the same arch and losing strength, toward the same location as yesterday, then intensifying dramatically, next to move northward. It seems to say that Matthew absorbs Nichole at this point in the NAVGEM. I don't have access to many models where I can play a loop. But I'm just wondering if the current NHC forecasts for both Matthew and Nichole put them pretty close to each other at 2pm Monday (is that eastern time?). Is it possible that the Fujiwhara Effect could then occur? Matthew absorbs Nichole? Is anyone thinking along these lines? Or is it just too far out to contemplate? Or is the NAVGEM  a model which is basically ignored?

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