Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

Recommended Posts

It will be interesting to see what happens at the tide gauge at Charleston and on NE over the next few hours. You already have the storm surge, but the tide is coming back up, plus you have all the rainfall runoff heading down the rivers with nowhere to go.

We've had similar events cause flash flooding in Portland because the high tide prevents water from draining out to sea.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

NWS ILM brings up a interesting scenario that may occur, it actually also happened when the rems of Hermine passed through NC and produced widespread winds 45-50 mph, given the size of the 850-900mb wind field and rain shield this could impact a large area....

National Weather Service Wilmington NC
704 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 AM Saturday...

Tropical storm force winds will continue to spread northward
along the coast this morning, but I fear there is a surprise
waiting for us late this afternoon into this evening. For several
days the GFS model has been indicating as the center of Matthew
passes south of Cape Fear, rain-cooled air across interior North
Carolina would get pulled south behind the storm. As lapse rates
steepen in the lowest 1500-2000 feet of the atmosphere, winds of
60-80 mph may get transported down through this mixed layer to the
surface. For many locations north of Myrtle Beach this may be the
strongest winds we see from the entire event, and could pose quite
a shock as the system will seem to be on its way out to sea by
then. After a foot of rain, gusts this strong would almost
certainly uproot trees causing power outages and blocked roads.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

Just curious, whats the costliest tropical cyclone in the U.S. that never actually made landfall?

No clue but I don't think it will be this one. I'm pretty sure it's making landfall right now. Also that was an impeccably timed recon flight to catch the center just a couple miles off the coast (I know it just worked out that way, but still).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Holy convergence. Really impressive radar image showing the band of just tremendous rainfall rates residing just in shore. Used a higher tilt since this band is practically on top of the radar.A cross section shows just how tilted rain shaft is due to the winds. ZDR is off the charts, which would indicate very large and likely elongated raindrops due to the strong winds aloft. This has been a recurring theme with the eyewall of this system with the ZDR max and corresponding low and distorted CC values almost as if it had a hail core. It's not birds as i've seen reported even from weather.com. 

2016-10-08_1432.png

2016-10-08_1445.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

North Myrtle Beach KCRE shows 981mb. Wow. By the way, I don't think I've ever seen an eyewall transition to a linear thunderstorm band like is what happening just north of Myrtle Beach.   I was at Surfside for 2 summers so I am a little sad to see the storm surge go over the street (as per somebody's post on the SE subforum)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rates have relaxed in the band. 20"+ totals now in some areas.

What was it? Looked like a cross between an eyewall and a frontogenesis band. Could be a MAUL thrown in there like Erin and Sandy had. We will have to await further sounding analysis from mets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was definitely some baroclinic contribution there. About a 10F spread in temps and 5-10F spread in dews across the band.

I'll be interested to see what some of the final totals were underneath that. Radar estimates were certainly impressive, but they typically underestimate in deep warm-rain setups.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • wxmx unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...