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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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RBTOP is a good colorized IR to look for cooling and warming trends of cloudtops. Noticing what appears to be warming inside the eyewall. Convective remnants of the old eye possibly starting to dissipate now. Shear actually isn't too bad versus storm motion. Half the circulation and feeders are still over the gulf stream. But the shallower shelf isn't exactly horrible to maintain. We might get a more classic appearance before the day is over.

938a304477965f6ba72a3c3e70352411.jpg

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33 minutes ago, Morris said:

Latest recon supports a downgrade to cat 2. let's see if NHC bites. They should. It's somewhat of a test for them.

Eh. FL winds close to 110kt, doubt they would. Despite that SFMR definitely supports only cat 2. (And they maintained cat 3.)

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6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

8 million without power during sandy. I have freinds down in Palm beach county that were terrified to the point of crippling fear by the hype. They woke up with power to a sunny day and a couple Palm fronds down. 

Other then the coast north of Juno, for the highest population areas this was definitely a bust

First, the power grid down there is much more equipped for these winds than up here. Second, there is much higher concentration of people in the NYC metro than on the FLA coast north of FLL, so your comparison doesnt hold water. If this storm hit the NYC area as it is hitting the FL coast now, we would have millions of outages. Sandy's winds were sustained to hurricane force, with gusts to low 90s, maybe mid-90s on the jersey shore. They are getting winds gusting over 100, recorded. So yea, this storm would have decimated our power grid. 

Moreover, there is severe flooding further north. This storm will cause hundreds of millions in damage by the time it scoots east. 

I also want to add that Miami-Dade County was never under a hurricane warning, and Palm Beach County was never forecasted to be leveled. The worst was always to be further north, so your friends weren't paying attention. Imagine the storm wobbled west of track and the coast wasnt prepared? How many would have died? Remember Sandy when everyone said they werent warned? Calling this a bust is not only foolish, but dangerous.

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

8 million without power during sandy. I have freinds down in Palm beach county that were terrified to the point of crippling fear by the hype. They woke up with power to a sunny day and a couple Palm fronds down. 

Other then the coast north of Juno, for the highest population areas this was definitely a bust

Sandy was a much different beast than this was. Sandy and Matthew had about the same 940mb pressure near landfall but Sandy's power was spread out over 800-1000 miles, while Matthew is confined to a relatively small area, but in that area is much more powerful than Sandy was in any one place. Sandy made landfall 100 miles south of NYC, but the wind and surge impacts were just as bad there. Sandy also devastated the largest metro area in the country, which happens to be one of the most surge-vulnerable on the entire eastern seaboard. 

Matthew would have been much more devastating with a track 50 miles or so west of what verified. The media was correct to hype it up. I just hope the next time (and in south FL there will definitely be a next time fairly soon), people aren't complacent and decide to stay when they should leave.

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

First, the power grid down there is much more equipped for these winds than up here. Second, there is much higher concentration of people in the NYC metro than on the FLA coast north of FLL, so your comparison doesnt hold water. If this storm hit the NYC area as it is hitting the FL coast now, we would have millions of outages. Sandy's winds were sustained to hurricane force, with gusts to low 90s, maybe mid-90s on the jersey shore. They are getting winds gusting over 100, recorded. So yea, this storm would have decimated our power grid. 

Moreover, there is severe flooding further north. This storm will cause hundreds of millions in damage by the time it scoots east. 

I also want to add that Miami-Dade County was never under a hurricane warning, and Palm Beach County was never forecasted to be leveled. The worst was always to be further north, so your friends weren't paying attention. Imagine the storm wobbled west of track and the coast wasnt prepared? How many would have died? Remember Sandy when everyone said they werent warned? Calling this a bust is not only foolish, but dangerous.

The media and NHC were right to hype the storm up. The hype probably saved lives. Imagine if they didn't hype up the potential and called for a miss to the east, but then were faced with a cat 4 storm jogging west of where anticipated and slamming into Ft Lauderdale or West Palm Beach on its way up I-95 to Jacksonville? That would have cost an untold number of lives, and damage would be in the many billions. FL is also overdue for a devastating cat 4 or 5 impact somewhere on its east coast, most likely the stretch from Miami to West Palm Beach. 

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14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sandy was a much different beast than this was. Sandy and Matthew had about the same 940mb pressure near landfall but Sandy's power was spread out over 800-1000 miles, while Matthew is confined to a relatively small area, but in that area is much more powerful than Sandy was in any one place. Sandy made landfall 100 miles south of NYC, but the wind and surge impacts were just as bad there. Sandy also devastated the largest metro area in the country, which happens to be one of the most surge-vulnerable on the entire eastern seaboard. 

Matthew would have been much more devastating with a track 50 miles or so west of what verified. The media was correct to hype it up. I just hope the next time (and in south FL there will definitely be a next time fairly soon), people aren't complacent and decide to stay when they should leave.

And it has literally gone straight up thr coast like it was on A1A if were a road 20 miles off shore.  The western eye wall has flirted with landfall all day.  The models pretty much nailed this thing within a 30 mile margin either side.  Pretty good if you ask me.

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The media and NHC were right to hype the storm up. The hype probably saved lives. Imagine if they didn't hype up the potential and called for a miss to the east, but then were faced with a cat 4 storm jogging west of where anticipated and slamming into Ft Lauderdale or West Palm Beach on its way up I-95 to Jacksonville? That would have cost an untold number of lives, and damage would be in the many billions. FL is also overdue for a devastating cat 4 or 5 impact somewhere on its east coast, most likely the stretch from Miami to West Palm Beach. 

I agree.  Unwarranted hype would've been if the model consensus showed the storm 100 miles offshore, or a weak storm.  There was a decent shot that the eye of a major hurricane would come on shore.  It does potentially create the boy who cried wolf syndrome but perhaps there's enough damage along the coast that folks there won't view this as a total bust.

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This thing could still wobble less than 10 miles and put St. Augustine in the worst part of the winds, yet people are calling it already. It reminds me very strongly of the Katrina thread on Eastern. There were a bunch of people calling it a nonevent because there were some reports of relatively light damage to the quarter.

It takes literally days for the worst damage reports to come out because the damaged areas are difficult to access and have almost no communications whatsoever.

Don't be an ass. Wait until the storm has actually moved out to sea before running your mouth about the lack of damage.

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Tornado warning over Savannah, GA and communities to the SE..

720
WFUS52 KCHS 071708
TORCHS
GAC029-051-179-071745-
/O.NEW.KCHS.TO.W.0011.161007T1708Z-161007T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
108 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 107 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.
TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAVANNAH...POOLER...RICHMOND HILL...GARDEN CITY AND BURROUGHS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT DAMAGE DIRECTLY TO THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-888-383-2024 WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 8116 3195 8113 3184 8154 3207 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 079DEG 33KT 3201 8123

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

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