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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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Looks like the newest cone from the NHC at 5am has the NC southern coast back in play and the mean line is closer to shore then previous tracks the past few days.  May be something we need to watch?  Maybe this reflects the models that have been coming in that I've seen referenced here and there yesterday.  :mellow:

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Looks like the newest cone from the NHC at 5am has the NC southern coast back in play and the mean line is closer to shore then previous tracks the past few days.  May be something we need to watch?  Maybe this reflects the models that have been coming in that I've seen referenced here and there yesterday.  :mellow:


It definitely shows it riding along the SC coast further north now (more north than Edisto beach now) and Hurricane warnings have been adjusted accordingly.


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Significant enhancement in KDP with the high reflectivity in the outer/dominant eyewall. One of the radials in ZDR heading towards the north-northeast also shows values becoming more negative, indicating differential attenuation (H-polarized wave is attenuated more than the V-polarized wave by the raindrops). Definitely a sign of heavy rainfall in the eyewall!

20161007_0939_0.5.png

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17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The eye is offshore and its interior structure is a bit ragged.  Matthew has probably weakened over the past several hours.  I don't think we're likely to see 100mph sustained so far from the center unless or until it strengthens or makes landfall.

Weather underground stations in cape canaveral are reporting sustained winds 25 to 38 mph only recently. Gust 45 to 55 mph. Very strange as the eye wall is kissing them.

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7 minutes ago, Animal said:

Weather underground stations in cape canaveral are reporting sustained winds 25 to 38 mph only recently. Gust 45 to 55 mph. Very strange as the eye wall is kissing them.

Unreliable, uncalibrated stations maybe. Official stations away from the eyewall are having no problem exceeding TS force:

KDAB 071122Z AUTO 02040G56KT

KMLB 071132Z AUTO 26034G51KT

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It would be something if the eye never makes landfall.

Capr Hatteras should be on alert as the models inched northward overnight.

Well it looks like FL will catch a HUGE break! Unless we see a more western push this morning it will miss the coast by 30 or so miles.  If that is the case then the hurricane sustained winds will be confined to the coast.

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Combination of a poorly timed ERC, increased shear, land interaction and last minute shift East on the track all combined to spare Florida what looked to be a devastating landfall. 

Still, that Northern and Eastern eyewall still mean business and it's attempting to wrap around the Western as we speak.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Combination of a poorly times ERC, increased shear, land interaction and last minute shift East on the track all combined to spare Florida what looked to be a devastating landfall. 

Still, that Northern and Eastern eyewall still mean business and it's attempting to wrap around the Western as we speak.

So far not a single report of real serious damage.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Fortunate that the ERC occurred when it did.

It's not just the ERC but also the paralleling of the coast.  The forward momentum of a storm hitting perpendicular to the coast at LF is far worse from a storm surge standpoint then a storm moving parallel to the coast.

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