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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Sorry for off-topic slightly. Back to discussion.

If, as some suggested, this OEW takes over and the overall eye expands, that certainly increases the chance for a LF by definition.

I don't know that it increases landfall chances, it does increase significantly the chances that the coastline receives eyewall type winds.

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9 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Looking at the Melbourne radar long range loop, Matt does appear to be working toward a possible Canaveral landfall

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=mlb&product=N0Z&loop=yes

Something else I've noticed recently looking at that same radar the rain bands are more widespread in coverage than a few hours ago. The western side of Matthew looked so anemic earlier with the rain bands. 

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At 02z or 10 p.m. EDT, the peak wind gusts on land in FL were 49 mph at Vero Beach, although Palm Beach is not available. 

Ocean buoy 41009 east of Cape Canaveral has gusts to 43 knots that we can expect will ramp up rather quickly. Sebastian Inlet also reporting 40 knots sustained. 

My estimate is also that the eye is headed for Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach might be grazed by the western side of it. 

This is by no means a bust for any locations north of Jupiter (yet) and nobody should assume they are off the hook, the radar presentation makes it appear that the storm is slowly accelerating but it is gaining longitude and almost certainly won't be a significant miss, but some form of shore-hugging trajectory with wobbles and eyewall rotations being key to the details of what actually happens.

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6 minutes ago, toxictwister00 said:

Something else I've noticed recently looking at that same radar the rain bands are more widespread in coverage than a few hours ago. The western side of Matthew looked so anemic earlier with the rain bands. 

Those bands are too closely spaced for deepening, it shouldn't look like one big blob.

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Outer eyewall is stronger at FL(Flight Level) than inner eyewall, however inner eyewall still maintains near cat 4 windspeeds at the surface. Inner eyewall should start weakening since winds aloft are not nearly as impressive as they were and outer eyewall windspeeds are increasing at a decent rate.

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The landfall point is important, but with this storm there will probably be a significant distance of coastline that gets eyewall conditions.   Farther north actually having the eye pass over.  Then landfall, which will probably bring higher winds and surge, which also may move along the coast for some time.  

The exact landfall point is pretty much academic considering how large an area could potentially be affected by the eye, especially the outer one if it continues in this form.

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The FL coast slopes NNW here on out, so the eye will have to really turn NW for a while to make landfall anywhere in FL. I'm pretty confident at this point it doesn't happen. The western eyewall might make it onto Cape Canaveral, but a full landfall is pretty unlikely now. This morning's good north jog maybe saved it. The models shifting east at 0z makes me more confident. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The FL coast slopes NNW here on out, so the eye will have to really turn NW for a while to make landfall anywhere in FL. I'm pretty confident at this point it doesn't happen. The western eyewall might make it onto Cape Canaveral, but a full landfall is pretty unlikely now. This morning's good north jog maybe saved it. The models shifting east at 0z makes me more confident. 

Somebody at TWC appeared to have made an error. Trajectory is still to the NW. Cone however has shifted significantly in the short-term.

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Somebody at TWC appeared to have made an error. Trajectory is still to the NW. Cone however has shifted significantly.

Somehow my question about where and how to link the NHC got deleted. Mods? If so - PM me Mod. This is a legitimate question.

What is the trajectory/cone change (?) - as I cannot get the NHC to load.

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The FL coast slopes NNW here on out, so the eye will have to really turn NW for a while to make landfall anywhere in FL. I'm pretty confident at this point it doesn't happen. The western eyewall might make it onto Cape Canaveral, but a full landfall is pretty unlikely now. This morning's good north jog maybe saved it. The models shifting east at 0z makes me more confident. 

 

Except the vector of the storm slightly west of parallel with the coastline  Following the inner eyeball has been problematic.

florida_radar_long.gif

 

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1 minute ago, pcbjr said:

Somehow my question about where and how to link the NHC got deleted. Mods? If so - PM me Mod. This is a legitimate question.

What is the trajectory/cone change (?) - as I cannot get the NHC to load.

Neither can I, but I made this as big as possible to look at. Looks like it's offshore for Florida.

 

Snap 2016-10-06 at 23.09.00.png

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I would say Matthew has transitioned into a neutrally favorable environment overall, but it will begin to become more unfavorable as it gains latitude and experiences more wind shear, moves over water with less heat content, and starts pulling in dry air from the northwest. The minimum central pressure has held mostly steady the last several hours. The secondary wind maximum obviously impeded further intensification during the period of time where environmental conditions were most optimal for an RI event. A gradual weakening seems like the best call right now.

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11 pm update: pressure dropped all day, but just bumped up a bit, indicating weakening - was down to 934 mbar and is now 939 mbar; winds still listed as 130 mph (Norcross on TWC, who is superb, thought they'd come down a little).  He said the energy of the storm has spread out some, with a bit weaker winds, but over a larger area (so the same sum of total kinetic energy).  
 
However, the storm's center is looking to be staying a bit further off the coast right now than originally thought - and I just saw the cone and the center is now expected to stay off the coast perhaps for the entire ride up the coast, i.e., maybe no landfall.  That would be huge in reducing the winds and rain and storm surge at least somewhat.  NHC site is down - I'm getting the info from TWC, who does have it directly from the NHC.  It might cause people to not heed the next warning, though, but it's still great news for public safety.  
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