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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Its a good bit NNE of where last nights euro had it.

 

 

Screen Shot 10-06-16 at 08.52 PM.JPG

ecmwf_T850_seus_2.png

It's definitely a little east of the NHC track last night and looks like it recently took another N jog. From where it is now the FL coast slopes NNW, so it will really have to head NW to make landfall anywhere. Maybe another wild card though is how long before it heads N then NE, since that then affects GA and SC. 

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

per metwannabe in the SE forum.

early 00z models shift a bit east off fl.  more of a northern component here in a few hrs until a close call w/ charleston.

bda02cab9bd60522aec2efdd6e990ebe.jpg&key

Good-down the middle of that path gives a lashing and nothing more to the coast. For surge, you really need a landfall to have anything that significant, and optimally you want a perpendicular track to the coast, not along or parallel to the coast. I'm sure some places will have some significant flooding, but nothing like a track inland anyplace. 

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6 minutes ago, Morris said:

Only 54kts in the western eyewall measured by a new dropsonde.

 

Let's face it. It's not a beast.

It's trying to replace its eye. Winds will not be nearly as strong for several hours more at least. Once it finishes winds have an opportunity to reconsolidate in the new eyewall. Remember just before Haiti, where the same process occurred right before landfall? Still plowed ashore with winds much stronger than were observed off shore hours earlier. I personally think we see an uptick in intensity later tonight.

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4 minutes ago, Morris said:

Only 54kts in the western eyewall measured by a new dropsonde.

 

Let's face it. It's not a beast.

The western eyewall usually is never the worst part of it, the north and east is. The radar on it hasn't looked good all day anyway. The NE eyewall has always been where the worst convection and effects have been today. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The western eyewall usually is never the worst part of it, the north and east is. The radar on it hasn't looked good all day anyway. The NE eyewall has always been where the worst convection and effects have been today. 

Neither will make landfall with that track so it doesn't matter.

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Just now, eurojosh said:

First, it's waaay too early to be calling bust.

 

Second, 00z hrrr is insistent on having it bend west as the eyewall comes closer to the coast.

The HRRR has been consistently too far west for the last day. This morning it had it coming ashore north of PBI. 

FL may have just dodged a huge bullet. Nothing more than decent gale force winds ashore yet, and from the eye now the shore slopes NNW. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The western eyewall usually is never the worst part of it, the north and east is. The radar on it hasn't looked good all day anyway. The NE eyewall has always been where the worst convection and effects have been today. 

That drop, I believe, occurred on the very inner portion of the Eyewall (so closer to the eye, where winds will of course he weaker), so it was weaker than you might expect. It is definitely stronger than 54kts, even in the western IEW. 

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Just now, eurojosh said:

First, it's waaay too early to be calling bust.

 

Second, 00z hrrr is insistent on having it bend west as the eyewall comes closer to the coast.

I think Jax and areas slightly south of there are still under the gun but there is no questioning that Central Florida and south is not going to face nearly what was feared.

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HRRR seems to have a west bias with Matthew.  Last night there tweets going out about how the HRRR was showing a close hit to Miami.  Below is the 18z run for roughly now and it's west by a good bit.

I do think it's going to get really close to landfall in FL.

 

Screen Shot 2016-10-06 at 9.28.59 PM.png

Screen Shot 2016-10-06 at 9.30.24 PM.png

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Check out Levi's 8:35pm update for information on the eyewall rings and wobbling and other issues 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/   

Good info with zero hype, and layman-friendly-enough I can send it to the family and friends deluging me with questions.  Thank you Levi!

 

(edit to fix typo noticed just as Save was pressed argh)

 

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27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Watch this thing stay 75 miles off the FL coast with only moderate impact, ride the Gulf Stream Northeast, explode in intensity and slam SC head-on! That would be a real kick in the teeth for forecasters. Floridians would never trust forecasters again, lol. 

From here in Boca Raton:  NO COMPLAINTS!!!

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2 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

If you take the average path of the 5 recon fixes from the NOAA plane the storm ends up 10-15 miles offshore of Cape Canaveral. Throw out the first one and just use the last 4 and it makes landfall there. Seems like it's kinda on track to me.

Seriously... Wish the IEW would just die off so people would better understand the direction this is going...

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Is it me or does it look like the inner eyewall is collapsing on the southside and giving way a bigger eyewall?

Because if it is...you could end up with a 50nm mile eye, which is a lot different than a 20nm wide eye and you could still get a LF/severe damage with the center hanging 25-50 miles offshore.   

Oh and it sure does still look like its moving WNW/NW


I see a nnw/nw motion last 3-4 hours. Those offshore tracks South of Jacksonville are probably going to verify. Most of FL may be dodging a huge bullet attm.
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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:


I see a nnw/nw motion last 3-4 hours. Those offshore tracks South of Jacksonville are probably going to verify. Most of FL may be dodging a huge bullet attm.

Well, I guess we both see something different. I don't think FL has dodged anything yet. It would be nice if it does, next 4 hours will be telling. 

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