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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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23z hrrr seems to show rapid improvement in organization in the next couple of hours followed by a long and heavy landfall. it's not a tropical model, so more sure about the track than the intensification, but something to keep an eye on, no pun intended.

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Just now, Roger Smith said:

00z (8 pm EDT) highest gust in FL __ 48 mph (West Palm Beach)

 

I know you're probably just going by the NWS list of observations, but here's from the 8 pm advisory:

The Lake Worth Pier near Palm Beach, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 60
mph (96 km/h).
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6 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

23z hrrr seems to show rapid improvement in organization in the next couple of hours followed by a long and heavy landfall. it's not a tropical model, so more sure about the track than the intensification, but something to keep an eye on, no pun intended.

If the band Near daytona collapses into the storm like the HRRR is showing that may give it an intensity boost.

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9 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I know you're probably just going by the NWS list of observations, but here's from the 8 pm advisory:


The Lake Worth Pier near Palm Beach, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 60
mph (96 km/h).

I'm aware of those reports, this is a log of highest wind gusts at land stations or maybe I should say regular airport weather stations. But I will include these supplementary and offshore sites from now on since we have this one. 

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Even the official NHC track doesn't take the center fully over land at any point, just very close. Either way if the eyewall drags the heavily populated coast of FL it is a disaster. I wouldn't write off a landfall just yet. 

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27 minutes ago, winterymix said:

CNN  has reports of people refusing to evacuate.

Probably the best possible outcome for those folks is two weeks

without electricity.

 

 

 

You know I am sure that a lot of those folks would not have a problem with leaving if it was not for one thing. And that is the authorities that are going to stop them from returning home for days, weeks, or months after the hurricane is gone. That is the part that would make me hesitant to leave.

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22 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

You have to remember, there are a few parts of the eastern FL coast that kind of jut out into the ocean a bit.

I know, Cape Canaveral is the wild card, but the last 6 hours or so makes me think the eye stays offshore. Models shifting a little bit east gives me some more confidence. The western eyewall might make it here or there however. In terms of really devastating impact, hopefully it stays offshore. If it does, winds will be where building codes can handle, and surge won't be too bad a problem because winds will be offshore. But I definitely might wake up tomorrow morning eating crow. 

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9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Some of the meso models do show a bend to the wnw over the next few hours (a few hour jog wnw). Should be interesting timeframe b/n now and 1 or 2 am. 

I was just reviewing the radar. If the current trend continues, some of the calls of kissing Cape Canaveral may be right. Regardless, some nicee feeder bands making to the west coast of Florida. Possible rogue twisters in the cells.

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5 minutes ago, larrye said:

I understand the concept of eyewall replacement. But is it typical for a hurricane to have two eyewalls for this long a period of time ... and isn't the outer eyewall kind of large for an eyewall?

Quote

Some tropical cyclones with extremely large outer eyewalls do not experience the contraction of the outer eye and subsequent dissipation of the inner eye. Typhoon Winnie (1997) developed an outer eyewall with a diameter of 200 kilometres (120 mi) that did not dissipate until it reached the shoreline.[25] The time required for the eyewall to collapse is inversely related to the diameter of the eyewall which is mostly because inward directed wind decreases asymptotically to zero with distance from the radius of maximum winds, but also due to the distance required to collapse the eyewall

 

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1 minute ago, Animal said:

what does your post imply. storm is not going to get stronger?

Not for the time being, as the outer eyewall constricts, it begins to starve the inner eyewall. Thus it begins to fall apart, and the pieces that are left become absorbed into the newly formed eyewall. Once the inner eyewall gives up and falls apart, the storm can resume its strengthening. But, as long as there are concentric eyewalls the storm will not strengthen much, if at all. 

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