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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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1 minute ago, knitwx said:

Tropical noob question. Is the North East or North West quadrant the most likely place for tornado development? Or is it one of the South quadrants ?

Believe it depends on the motion of the storm. The right side relative to the motion I believe has the best tornado odds. Have also heard RFQ for best chance at tornadoes. There will definitely be tornado risk but highest risk could remain offshore. 

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8 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

18Z HWRF actually comes ashore in Southern South Carolina - goes back out to sea but it is a legit landfall and time of center entirely over land. 

Worse case senario, storm hugs the coast just far enough not to weaken but close enough to get the RMW on land.  Everyone below the NC/SC border gets 100mph winds. Not that I believe it.

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6 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said:

I asked this before but it got lost in the avalanche of recon reports earlier.

Given the relative proximity of Matthew and Nicole, what effects can we expect from a Fujiwara interaction, on both the currently modeled track and the loop scenario as depicted by the EURO?

Probably none, as all the reliable models keep them at a good distance from each other.

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8 PM Advisory 130/939

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW OVER THE WESTERN
END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

 

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2 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Probably none, as all the reliable models keep them at a good distance from each other.

The NHC forecast around hour 96 has then ~750 Miles out

 

5 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Probably none, as all the reliable models keep them at a good distance from each other.

I had looked earlier and at the 120HR mark, the storms appeared to be at the same latitude with a longitudinal separation of 9 degrees, which yields ~ 560 mile separation.  From what I reviewed earlier it said interactions for tropical system begin at ~900 miles out.

Haven't seen the later models, guessing they are showing more separation now?

 

 

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18 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said:

The NHC forecast around hour 96 has then ~750 Miles out

 

I had looked earlier and at the 120HR mark, the storms appeared to be at the same latitude with a longitudinal separation of 9 degrees, which yields ~ 560 mile separation.  From what I reviewed earlier it said interactions for tropical system begin at ~900 miles out.

Haven't seen the later models, guessing they are showing more separation now?

 

 

The models have them relatively weak, so the low pressure fields never interact with each other....I would probably look to having them <300 miles between each other to expect some interaction.

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5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Seems a scoot to the near due north the last several frames

The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. 

I truly hope you are right, but I defer to NHC this close in

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. 

You have to remember, there are a few parts of the eastern FL coast that kind of jut out into the ocean a bit.

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. 

I really don't think it matters at this point. Eyewall or landfal there is still going to be some major damage in the coastal counties.... even up in N FL the NWS is predicting gusts up to 120mph. That is some pretty serious stuff!!

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