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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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Winds weaker at the surface on this pass. Only supporting cat 3, but just a drop above the surface it's almost cat 5.

Notice that was the SSE quadrant. The reflectivity is weak there. Notice how intense the signature is in the NE and N however? I suspect higher winds are mixing down in the northern semicircle. It's been 1-1/2 hr since they punch the NE quadrant.

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12 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Oh, but this is clearly an ERC...many signals point to that. The 2nd wind maxima is clear on recon obs, the radar moat and the sinking air around the inner eyewall shown earlier in sat imagery are clear as the day. Right now the outer eyewall is visibly shrinking as shown on radar, and the inner eyewall is giving the good fight.

Anything is possible, but my argument is if you look at the wind speed/direction at 200mb to 700mb on the 12z GFS, there has clearly been some light pockets of wind shear from the southwest to west as the trough out west amplifies. This coupled with the storm nearing the CONUS and a slightly drier airmass, may have halted the strengthening we saw last night. The spiraled bands on IR and visible satellite/inhibited outflow on the west side, had the look of a storm undergoing some minor shear or dry air issues. I have seen many healthy canes undergo ERC's and their overall look on IR didn't change other than the eyewall itself and perhaps a slight warming of the CDO. 

 

That said, it's negligent as things are improving quickly on satellite tonight. Outflow is much better and the CDO is taking off again. Wouldn't be shocked to see another intensification period over the next 12 hours.

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Long time lurker. I have noticed that there is a lot of extrapolating from current headings as if Matthew's current trajectory won't be influenced an hour, two, three, or 8 hours from now by the same atmospheric patterns that are steering it now. We've gone from cone-watching to micro-adjustments and making predictions off of the micro-adjustments. I thought that was a no-no in these threads. I've heard very little on the overall patterns guiding Matthew today.  

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1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

Long time lurker. I have noticed that there is a lot of extrapolating from current headings as if Matthew's current trajectory won't be influenced an hour, two, three, or 8 hours from now by the same atmospheric patterns that are steering it now. We've gone from cone-watching to micro-adjustments and making predictions off of the micro-adjustments. I thought that was a no-no in these threads. I've heard very little on the overall patterns guiding Matthew today.  

The signal to noise ratio of the discussion here as gone off the charts. Too many people chiming in who have no idea what they are talking about.

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6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Anything is possible, but my argument is if you look at the wind speed/direction at 200mb to 700mb on the 12z GFS, there has clearly been some light pockets of wind shear from the southwest to west as the trough out west amplifies. This coupled with the storm nearing the CONUS and a slightly drier airmass, may have halted the strengthening we saw last night. The spiraled bands on IR and visible satellite/inhibited outflow on the west side, had the look of a storm undergoing some minor shear or dry air issues. I have seen many healthy canes undergo ERC's and their overall look on IR didn't change other than the eyewall itself and perhaps a slight warming of the CDO. 

 

That said, it's negligent as things are improving quickly on satellite tonight. Outflow is much better and the CDO is taking off again. Wouldn't be shocked to see another intensification period over the next 12 hours.

I agree with that. I commented a couple of pages ago that the shear has been gradually increasing. It's still not at unfavorable levels, though.

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1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said:

There's actually a ton of lightning in inner eyewall right now. What does this suggest?

Anything. It's been hashed over many times that lightning in an eye wall can mean basically anything...but basing off of current obs/radar, appears to mean it's strengthening.

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Just a note on motion and path; From experience, the actual motion and direction of tropical systems can be quite deceiving.

The rotation of the system can create illusion and also the distortion caused by the projection of the map that is being used can be very deceiving. What you think is north may not be actual north and could in fact be a curved line due to the map projection.

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8 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Just a note on motion and path; From experience, the actual motion and direction of tropical systems can be quite deceiving.

The rotation of the system can create illusion and also the distortion caused by the projection of the map that is being used can be very deceiving. What you think is north may not be actual north and could in fact be a curved line due to the map projection.

Especially with concentric eyewalls.  The inner eye is going to wobble within the outer eye causing the appearance of a change in movement.

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5 minutes ago, Mello said:

Especially with concentric eyewalls.  The inner eye is going to wobble within the outer eye causing the appearance of a change in movement.

 

Right. Thanks, thats even more to the point with this system. It looks like it even might miss a direct hit on Freeport with a wobble just now. Wow!

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Man, Cheesenado is going to take the biggest message board victory lap if the 18z GFS verifies. In all seriousness, it shows how the steep angle of approach makes landfall forecasting almost impossible. Needless to say, the insurance companies are rooting pretty hard for that solution ....

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Just to clarify, you won't see updates from Settlement Point (the place being discussed above) every 10 minutes, but once an hour, usually about 10-15 mins after top of the hour. The 10 min updates are in the hourly reports (look down the page). A new hourly and the previous six 10 minute reports should be on line soon. (for 22z). The hourly report is (edit) top of the hour (offshore buoys are often 10 mins to the hour) and then you see the six earlier 10-min reports, e.g. the 22z report will also have 2110z to 2150z. 

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Man, Cheesenado is going to take the biggest message board victory lap if the 18z GFS verifies. In all seriousness, it shows how the steep angle of approach makes landfall forecasting almost impossible. Needless to say, the insurance companies are rooting pretty hard for that solution ....


It's probably opposite.....the long haul they want excuses to raise rates.


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3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Man, Cheesenado is going to take the biggest message board victory lap if the 18z GFS verifies. In all seriousness, it shows how the steep angle of approach makes landfall forecasting almost impossible. Needless to say, the insurance companies are rooting pretty hard for that solution ....

Been out of the loop all day - what solution is this? Anything that keeps us out of the storm?

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