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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Neither should be thrown out. It's a possible evolution of steering flow if the cyclone gets left behind by the trough. It's also beyond 150 hrs out.

The main focus is the short term trends with the coastline and 96 hrs.

Anyone throwing out the EC because of the loop is an imbecile.

In the Atlantic and worldwide, there is a long and rich history of wacky loops, zigs, zags, etc. for tropical cyclones, even out and back for thousands of miles. 

 

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Chaos. 

I wonder if the actual outcome is something like this -- storm temporarily held back at surface by steep terrain of eastern Cuba, but has enough momentum to rebound forward next 3-6 hours, models picked up on the delay but not the rebound, and the loop turns out to be a figment, less sophisticated GEM didn't catch the delay and went on its merry way as before. 

An alternative scenario to monitor -- storm accelerates now and rushes to get into the trough before it is taken away, ends up just being a fast tour of the outer coastal waters , perhaps a minimal landfall in e NC and very fast motion NE across New England Sunday. The loop is plausible too, Nicole has created a sort of block on zonal escape so it's either phase or loop. 

I still think it will phase. 

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Loop appears implausible to me, the blocking high isn't that strong by October standards. A long-duration meander in October is not out of the question but has usually happened with 1035-1040 mb highs further north. 

The Canadian model may have inadvertently hit on the right solution by not being fine tuned enough to catch the east Cuban delay which then may not be as significant as the GFS has calculated.

However, to get north fast enough Matthew has to accelerate and get 12-18 hours ahead of the GFS timetable or not approach FL quite as close. 

We'll have to see what the 00z Euro does, if it goes back to another outcome or a simpler solution then it may be a cavalcade of errors. 

At this point, nobody between Miami and Boston should assume they are out of the woods, or in the crosshairs, or even getting only one visit from Matthew. Chaos. 

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19 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

That GFS run is one of the most amazing model runs of all time.

 

 

jburns,. I quoted you so you would see this.  Any chance we can get Amwx on storm mode to clean some of this mess up?   Oh and thanks for what you do here also! 

 

 

 

I think we can handle one thread without putting the whole board into storm mode. If Matthew does that crazy ass loop and board insanity surfaces we can reconsider.

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The interesting per about the 00Z GFS is despite the utter insanity, it does not actually make land fall in the US. Only thing that would've made it more insane was it recurving into the NE once it gets past the Carolinas after the loop. 

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If the loop is an error and the solution is closer to the GEM, then the errors are reduced if Nicole loops around 60W and gradually becomes the storm depicted in the second half of the loop, although probably just a TS or cat-1 cane, then also if that dies out but the new invest north of S America follows a Matthew track and ends up in the Bahamas in a week. 

The next NHC discussion and cone will be something. I wonder if there's a crisis meeting underway? 

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