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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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3 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The 18z NAVGEM has the landfall in the Miami area and slams the hurricane all the way up the FL peninsula into the panhandle.

 

Hey - its the NAVGEM but ... I need to get off and Skype with my son in Japan in a little while; the NAVGEM is not loading for me yet. What do the winds look like on what you're seeing, north of Orlando up to the GA line? "Slams" has me concerned inland (even with the NAVGEM). Can you let me know soon? The Skype will last for a while :)

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OK, I try to just read on here but have had a burning question on here all day. Numerous people have mentioned this storm exploding over the Bahamas. Why has nobody in the public media mentioned this?  All they keep saying is it will weaken as it approaches the southeast. Thank you in advance!

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3 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said:

OK, I try to just read on here but have had a burning question on here all day. Numerous people have mentioned this storm exploding over the Bahamas. Why has nobody in the public media mentioned this?  All they keep saying is it will weaken as it approaches the southeast. Thank you in advance!

This isn't true. There have been numerous people, especially at TWC, that have talked about strengthening being definitely possible over the Bahamas. 

 

Presumably those you are referring to do not want to be sensationalists, though. 

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2 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said:

OK, I try to just read on here but have had a burning question on here all day. Numerous people have mentioned this storm exploding over the Bahamas. Why has nobody in the public media mentioned this?  All they keep saying is it will weaken as it approaches the southeast. Thank you in advance!

Conventional wisdom, historical trends and an anomalous 12z EURO run most likely.

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7 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Hey - its the NAVGEM but ... I need to get off and Skype with my son in Japan in a little while; the NAVGEM is not loading for me yet. What do the winds look like on what you're seeing, north of Orlando up to the GA line? "Slams" has me concerned inland (even with the NAVGEM). Can you let me know soon? The Skype will last for a while :)

Here is my source: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_go_mex&set=All

These maps aren't very good, so it's hard to be too specific, but it looks to be showing isolated areas with >50 knot winds into N FL with widespread 30-50 knot sustained winds.

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OK, I try to just read on here but have had a burning question on here all day. Numerous people have mentioned this storm exploding over the Bahamas. Why has nobody in the public media mentioned this?  All they keep saying is it will weaken as it approaches the southeast. Thank you in advance!

The hurricane will initially have very favorable upper atmospheric support as it traverses the Bahamas with high SSTs. However, upper level SW flow will begin occurring and strengthen late in the forecast period. Aside from the media, the hurricane probably will be under SW shear north of the Bahamas. A more western and faster NW track increases the likely- hood the hurricane will be much stronger at landfall and possibly still a major hurricane.

A slower and more northern landfall will probably be a weaker hurricane. But it's still early and perhaps the forecast upper pattern remains favorable longer even when/if the hurricane is further up the coast.

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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

Here is my source: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_go_mex&set=All

Theae maps aren't very good, so it's hard to be too specific, but it looks to be showing isolated areas with >50 knots into N FL with widespread 30-50 knot sustained winds.

Thanks!

Even 50K winds are bad - just went through 5 days with no power with the one last month with winds in that range - so glad the Skype is tonight! Thanks so much for the detail!!!!

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22 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Then throw in the fact that not one but three towers have been proposed in Miami 2 of which will exceed 1000 feet and the current highest tower, 4 seasons is 780 feet. I was under the impression the FAA limited tower heights in Miami due to path restrictions to Miami International however it appears they removed any restrictions allowing for 1000 or higher behemoths to be built in probably the most high risk hurricane zone in the country. 

Non issue: with modern construction. Just look at Taiwan. Taipei 101 is 1400' plus and has been hit by some serious typhoons since its completion years ago with no damage. Miami though hurricane prone doesn't hold a candle to Taiwan 

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Non issue: with modern construction. Just look at Taiwan. Taipei 101 is 1400' plus and has been hit by some serious typhoons since its completion years ago with no damage. Miami though hurricane prone doesn't hold a candle to Taiwan 

Really great point with Taipei 101 however it's not the construction as much as the windows I would be concerned with. Ike in Houston comes to mind as a classic example.

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

As Greg Fishel just said, when that many euro ensemble members show a certain path, you can't ignore it.

 

I'm with the Euro.  And now the GFS is caving toward that solution.  This thing will hopefully be a nonevent for the Carolinas.  Suits me perfectly.  I don't want wind and rain up here.

How many changes have we had with the models since last night? You can't ignore that either. I guess if a model spits out so many different solutions it is bound to get close to right with one of them.

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38 minutes ago, pawatch said:

With regards to Matthew brushing the coast of FL. does anyone know if it will be high tide/ low tide. Just wondering how much that could effect storm surge.

If it brushes along the coast it won't really matter as it will hit all tides.

 

Source:  me, lifelong east coast fl fisherman

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HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
745 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee in South
Florida.

Rather odd they would issue that outside of a 6-hour advisory
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5 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

Guys recon found this :o:o


093 150 007 05
234700 2011N 07409W 6942 02897 //// +090 //// 137085 090 /// /// 05
234730 2012N 07407W 6981 02895 9791 +104 //// 140095 101 160 011 05

160 know surface winds.

Completely contaminated reading. 

The plane is near the coast, so the SFMR readings are likely attenuated 

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2 hours ago, Bacon Strips said:

the coast guard should move some Buoy floaters (or whatever their called)  into the path of Matt.   We need as much data as possible as he's moving in.  

We were basically relying on 1 buoy as it was about to hit Haiti.

Lol.  I passed your request on.

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Regarding the very strong wind report, wondering if the position of the strong side of Matthew in the Jamaica Channel between two mountainous points could lead to topographic channelling similar to what we see on the Pacific coast during intense winter storms. It may be a temporary anomaly but a sign that Matthew is just basically unstoppable on this track and redistributing its energy; my hunch is that it will drop to mid-cat 3 at some point 3-9 hours from now but recover to cat-4 fairly quickly. 

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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looking at the last few IR frames it looks like Matthew seems to have temporarily stalled with the eye right on the east tip of Cuba.  If the stall were to continue a few hours I wonder how much it would disrupt the eyewall?  

Honestly the presentation on satellite looks better than it has in hours... As -40 to -60C tops now surround the eye. 

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