Ralph Wiggum Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 BIG differences this run of GFS irt the trof in the central US....much weaker and slower to come east. Definitely not as deep which is one factor allowing the storm to come west this run. Not acting like a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: can't believe Haiti doesn't even have radar. would be sweet seeing that convective complex just south moving in. I mean after the devastating earthquake, I think their priorities changed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GFS outer banks landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 coastal sc/nc gets it good this run thru 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said: I mean after the devastating earthquake, I think there priorities changed a bit. true.. gfs at 102 is slightly closer to the coast. High pressure to the north is 1 mb stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: BIG differences this run of GFS irt the trof in the central US....much weaker and slower to come east. Definitely not as deep which is one factor allowing the storm to come west this run. Not acting like a kicker. but likely means OTS further north? .. weaker trof, not going to pull it back towards the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: but likely means OTS further north? .. weaker trof, not going to pull it back towards the coast No. deeper trough/slower. More time for storm to head north. Also, neg tilt trough allows storm to stay closer to coast. Strictly verbatim this run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 but likely means OTS further north? .. weaker trof, not going to pull it back towards the coastNot sure. Changes between runs are night and day. GFS now has an ull forming in the midwest. Could still get tugged NW later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GFS starts heading OTS at 138, after clobbering SC and NC, just starting to clip the Mid Atlantic, this is a bad run for the US but could be a lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 cape and islands also take a close hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 This should be an interesting ensemble suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6-7 days out. Tons could change and will.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 then up into maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Hurricane gets pulled back around and hits Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GEM/CMC also is slower and west this run, much further west and much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Buoy 42058 in the Caribbean Sea will be hit by the hurricane soon. It has 62kt gusting to 74 kt, wave height 33ft! 28.72inches (972.6mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 0z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Chinook said: Buoy 42058 in the Caribbean Sea will be hit by the hurricane soon. It has 62kt gusting to 74 kt, wave height 33ft! 28.72inches (972.6mb) Most say to expect waves of 20 to 30 feet with a Cat 5 ... but Ivan had waves of a 100 feet, mentioned here - http://www.livescience.com/364-hurricane-waves-soared-100-feet.html still 33 feet = impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 New euro run started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Very close to FL coast at 96 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Euro skims eastern Florida. Really west compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Upper trough near 40/60 is completely different and doesn't erode the ridge nearly as much by day 5. Gets really close to JAX Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The Euro is stalling down south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Following the Gulf Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Euro has this way south at 156 while the GFS, Navgem hits the northeast at this hour lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Euro goes pretty much due east at 168. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, cdhay17 said: Euro goes pretty much due east at 168. Weird. The trough was really weak and couldn't capture it. It stalled long enough to miss the trough. This is the only model doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 BOUY 42T58 is in the eye? http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42T58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 35 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: BOUY 42T58 is in the eye? http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42T58 I think what happened is that 42058 which is 6 nm west of 42T58 has been in the eye past two hours (it only reports at 10 min to each hour) while 42T58 was blown over on its side around 0430-05 z and has been giving spurious wind readings since then. It should be saying SE 80-120 right now if it's in the eyewall. Satellite image shows the eye right on 15N 75W, the reliable buoy is just to the southeast of that, the blown over buoy is 6 nm east-north-east of the other one. We'll see if 42T58 comes back with more credible reports, or if 42058 survives the blast of the southern eyewall. If you click on 42058 you'll see that winds dropped to 4 knots at 0640z so the center must have gone right over top (almost). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Adding to the previous comments about the two buoys, 42058 appears to be surviving and sending reliable data, it shows the classic pattern expected when an eye goes over a location from south to north. The only explanations for the data we are seeing from 42T58 would be either (a) it fell over on its side around 0430z or (b) it went adrift and is spinning around in the eye of the hurricane. The pressure record for 42T58 shows that it has to be (a) since the pressures are generally consistent with the fixed location while the winds are not. I've seen this happen off the Irish coast with weather buoys in severe storms with large waves, they fall sideways and ride the waves (in situ) giving much lower wind speeds and erratic directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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