PTC Matthew

[jojo762]

satellite presentation really starting to tighten up. Might be able to pull off an open eye tonight.

[andyhb]

GFS seems to be leaning towards a stronger W Atlantic ridge over the past few runs.

[jojo762]

4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

GFS seems to be leaning towards a stronger W Atlantic ridge over the past few runs.

Certainly so... 00Z run tonight has Matthew more west.. Basically teasing the entire southeast coast before going OTS.

[andyhb]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

How do you think that relates to the recurve OTS we see later in the run? From my prospective, yes, there is a stronger tendency to push Matthew further west to about Florida, but the lack of high heights/ridging further north and the trough in the midwest remain too much to overcome. 

Well any shift towards stronger Atlantic ridging is likely going to make the prospects of a landfall anywhere S of Hatteras more viable vs. the other way around IMO. There's too many moving parts to really nail it down with any confidence beyond that.

[Epicnova]

Is an SE New England impact impossible now, or is there still a chance we could see some strong effects?

[Superstorm93]

Recon just hit the northern eyewall with 100 knot flight level winds and 80 knot surface winds. Pressure around 975 mb. Lightning exploding in the eyewall



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[Windspeed]

If the ECMWF shifts back west now with the new sample data, Jamaica may very well be facing direct landfall. I think Matt will be a major hurricane by then, but may also be a large hurricane in size as it impacts the island. At that angle of approach, part of the island would receive southerly right front winds straight over steep vertically ascending elevation. No major hurricane has hit Jamaica from that angle in modern times. Ivan passed just to the south. Gilbert passed directly over the island from east to west as the core crossed directly over the peaks. Gilbert was a strengthening Cat 3 and did massive devastation. Ivan was actually stronger, but didn't make direct landfall.

[JasonOH]

Well that happened.  HH found the wind on the way out of that pas.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

2 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Well that happened.  HH found the wind on the way out of that pas.

it's intensifying nicely, that's for sure

[hawkeye_wx]

20 minutes ago, Epicnova said:

Is an SE New England impact impossible now, or is there still a chance we could see some strong effects?

If energy from the big eastern US cutoff low is still hanging out over New England in several days, as current models suggest, then Matthew would probably be steered out to sea.  If that upper energy is not still there, then a track up the coast is possible.  That's a ways out, though.  Models are still trying to figure out which Caribbean island will be hit.

[David Reimer]

Wind was bound to catch up to the falling pressure at some point, although the nearly 100 knot FL winds were a surprise. Will be interesting to see what the new VORTEX says. 

[Eduardo]

Did the aforementioned shear relax?  Or is he instead intensifying in spite of it?

[David Reimer]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 5:32Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 24
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 4:57:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°04'N 69°06'W (14.0667N 69.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 311 statute miles (500 km) to the S (170°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,909m (9,544ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (~ 80.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 74kts (From the SSE at ~ 85.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast, SE
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 140° to 320° (SE to NW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the N (351°) from the flight level center at 5:05:50Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 170° at 7kts (From the S at 8mph)

 

[Shane M.]

13 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Did the aforementioned shear relax?  Or is he instead intensifying in spite of it?

It's on the edge of stronger shear to the north and weaker to the south, so in this case it isn't necessarily hurting it... Definitely was very surprised to see it strengthen so much in such a short period of time!

 

 

[Epicnova]

Officially a category 2 storm with 979mb central pressure and sustained 100mph winds.

[Epicnova]

32 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

If energy from the big eastern US cutoff low is still hanging out over New England in several days, as current models suggest, then Matthew would probably be steered out to sea.  If that upper energy is not still there, then a track up the coast is possible.  That's a ways out, though.  Models are still trying to figure out which Caribbean island will be hit.

Thanks! I guess I'll have to continue monitoring it then.

[Shane M.]

Pretty amazing looking at the inner core of convection develop over the past few hours

[Windspeed]

0z ECMWF is nearly identical to the 12z. Kind of thought it would follow the 0z suite and shift a bit west. Still erodes the ridge much faster.

[David Reimer]

I love me a hot tower! Plenty of -80C to -85C tops. Next recon will probably find a storm near major hurricane status and pressure in the upper 960s/lower 970s. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Models did not have all of this recent data although they had a better sampling. But when you look at the maps, the entire scenario of a northward turn is very nebulous, there are no strong gradients anywhere between the eastern GOM and Hispaniola and meanwhile this hurricane is bombing out, it will be the dominant feature and could go under its own momentum a lot further west before turning north, or even loop around and come out across Cuba from the southwest. I just don't trust the look of the charts around days 5 to 8 on any of the models, but small changes in the decay rate of the Great Lakes upper low would really have large impacts on where Matthew could go in that time frame. 

[BlueDXer75]

4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Models did not have all of this recent data although they had a better sampling. But when you look at the maps, the entire scenario of a northward turn is very nebulous, there are no strong gradients anywhere between the eastern GOM and Hispaniola and meanwhile this hurricane is bombing out, it will be the dominant feature and could go under its own momentum a lot further west before turning north, or even loop around and come out across Cuba from the southwest. I just don't trust the look of the charts around days 5 to 8 on any of the models, but small changes in the decay rate of the Great Lakes upper low would really have large impacts on where Matthew could go in that time frame. 

Very good point, Roger. Bigger storms like this tend to have a mind of their own, defying the models, defying and surprising the National Hurricane Center.  I love the 2am advisory where it says they have no idea when it will stop strengthening

[Chinook]

Wow, CAT 2, and it was just designated a tropical storm (50kt) as recently as yesterday, i.e., 11:00AM Atlantic time, September 28, public advisory #1.

[PaEasternWX]

4 hours ago, Superstorm93 said:

Recon just hit the northern eyewall with 100 knot flight level winds and 80 knot surface winds. Pressure around 975 mb. Lightning exploding in the eyewall



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I may be wrong but lightning I think is a sign of rapid intensification.

[David Reimer]

4 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

I may be wrong but lightning I think is a sign of rapid intensification.

Excessive lightning is indicative of a strong updraft. When you see excessive lightning in a eyewall it is one indicator of intensification - although the rate of such intensification cannot be determined by lightning alone. 

[nycsnow]

Wonder if this being stronger so far is messing with models?

[PaEasternWX]

So far the GFS  is way off with the current strength of Matthew. At the very beginning it has Matthew at 1000 mb.

[PackGrad05]

As Huffman said on his latest tweet, I think the bahamas, cuba, and those areas are at the biggest threat.

 

IMO, I don't see any type of large scale feature that could help pull this one into the east coast.  Am I missing somethinG?

[Cheeznado]

Confidence increasing in a US miss. Euro ensembles have mostly shifted east (op is way east for the second run in a row), GFS is still east, still think that there is a slight chance of an eastern NC strike, but that is lessening as each model run comes out. If this comes to pass, big win for the GFS over the Euro.

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, WeatherFan202 said:

So far the GFS  is way off with the current strength of Matthew. At the very beginning it has Matthew at 1000 mb.

I haven't looked but are you looking at full resolution? Often times the maps simply do not show the correct pressure in intense tropical systems.

EDIT: The full resolution looks like it started the storm at 976.

[Kmlwx]

14 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Confidence increasing in a US miss. Euro ensembles have mostly shifted east (op is way east for the second run in a row), GFS is still east, still think that there is a slight chance of an eastern NC strike, but that is lessening as each model run comes out. If this comes to pass, big win for the GFS over the Euro.

Yes. Whether it was the aircraft data being ingested or something else who knows. But it does seem east was the trend last night. I guess it could still be the typical windshield wiper back and forth but the last couple runs of the GFS have definitely been east.