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2016-2017 Autumn/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread


HillsdaleMIWeather

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1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Who here cannot wait for it to start cooling off, seriously It feels like June out there. 

Supposed to be in the upper 60s at 70 this week, not too bad. I'm starting to wonder how this will affect LES in early winter. Could be a rocking lake once the inevitable troughing begins.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Interesting article and subsequent comments on ASOS and "human adjustments".  As the author mentioned, it's a bit unsettling as it relates to the integrity of the long-term climate record.  This article is focused on Alaska...but I wonder how common this issue is around the country.

 

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2016/10/climate-observations-human-element.html#comment-form

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Interesting article and subsequent comments on ASOS and "human adjustments".  As the author mentioned, it's a bit unsettling as it relates to the integrity of the long-term climate record.  This article is focused on Alaska...but I wonder how common this issue is around the country.

 

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2016/10/climate-observations-human-element.html#comment-form

I can't speak for Alaska, but at our station if there is an observed error in any climate data, except precip, it is corrected by us and/or NWS DTX. Those types of errors don't go through.

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32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Man check out the 00z GFS.  Florida gets raked by Matthew not once, but twice as it loops and comes back.  That would be incredible if it actually happened like that.

 

Insane.  No matter what happens just seeing a forecast model depict that was crazy enough.  Never thought something like that was even legitimately possible.  Guess it is, even if this doesn't come to pass.  The fact that it was modeled like that means it must be possible lol.

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4 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

Loops like that in tropical cyclones aren't extremely uncommon. The GFS is depicting very weak upper level flow, thus it kind of meanders.

One thing to have a loop well out in the ocean, another to do it near land and hit the same area again.

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One helluva point forecast.  This for Cape Canaveral.  

 

Thursday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 81. North northeast wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 40 to 50 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday
Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 85. North wind 100 to 120 mph becoming west southwest 70 to 90 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
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5 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

One helluva point forecast.  This for Cape Canaveral.  

 

Thursday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 81. North northeast wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 40 to 50 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday
Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 85. North wind 100 to 120 mph becoming west southwest 70 to 90 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

I once stayed at a condo in New Smyrna Beach that was a stone's throw from the ocean.  Not sure how well it will hold up...last I checked the forecast was calling for gusts up to 135 there.

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5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

 

Probably gonna take one hell of a beating.  

Looks that way.  This one is a challenge to figure out due to the expected direction of motion and the shape of the coastline.  Even the smallest change in angle could shift the landfall location by many miles.

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Been really busy this summer but made it a plan to camp and check out some of the local state parks around the area. Here are a few pictures I forgot to post in summer/early fall that I was able to grab. Was my first time at Watkins Glen when we went last month and it was absolutely gorgeous there and would highly recommend.

Watkins Glen:

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CtcRxXc.jpg

 

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