Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mr Bob

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

 


Smoke plume is still there as the first batch of rain has passed. 10cf4f40532531e065d2d6ac001e3d02.jpg

 

 

Was not enough.  Just posted down in the ops thread that 30 structures are now involved.  I probably have 30+ mph winds her in Kingsport.  Certainly those folks are in my thoughts and prayers.  Again, mountain wave events are just about the worst thing to couple with a forest fire.  I know they have been so diligent in GSMNP by checking hikers, taking names of those in the backcountry, and making sure nobody was up to no good.  Just impossible to control a forest fire in 60 mph winds.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 159
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Its really terrible and hindsight is 20/20, not to play Monday morning quarterback, or be critical of officials, but I can't help but think this should have been clearer in forecasters field of view as a potential.  Mountain wave probability was high and a large forest fire due south of Gatlinburg at Chimney Tops...  Again hindsight is 20/20 but those 2 things coupled together I wish would have sent off more bells and whistles that there was a real possibility for a perfect storm of sorts was coming together. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand that and believe me I am not attacking anyone, really just sort of looking in hindsight which is always dangerous but also a great way to learn from an event.  All the clues for the potential of something large occurring where there.  I'm not saying anyone failed or its a fault of any agency at all, again just hard to look at it all and not come to the realization that we had the clues and didn't fully piece them together for something of this magnitude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MRX highlighted concerns related to fire weather hazards in AFDs leading up to the event. One such example:

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
308 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...

...

The down side to this wonderful weather will be low RH values to
hinder the wildfire fighting efforts. Additionally, light winds
could cause some limited vsby issues with smoke and haze
particularly in portions of the central and southern East TN
valley. However, with low level winds predominately southerly,
smoke issues should be localized and limited in nature as most
favorable trajectories for TN Valley smoke have been in E-SE low
level winds.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

...

For Monday...depending on how fast moisture returns...concerned of
the increasing southerly winds may enhance fire concerns across the
region.

First jet moves toward the Ohio Valley with a band of showers
entering into the Plateau by late day Monday...and then over the
entire area Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Widespread rain is
anticipated...but strong southerly winds will produce downslope
conditions over the northern/central Tennessee Valley.  Models show
a 80kt 850mb jet over Kentucky with the Mountains/adjacent foothills
likely experiencing high winds. Have issued a high wind watch from
21Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday.

...

Also, MRX issued an SPS about fire danger at 9:57 am yesterday:

Quote

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
957 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016


...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE..SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA...

ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH POSSIBLE ABOVE
2000 FEET. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER 3500 FEET.
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AREN`T AS BIG OF A CONCERN AS THE WINDS TODAY. VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TN VALLEY AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC.

THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS NEAR ONGOING
WILDFIRES VERY DANGEROUS, ALLOWING THEM TO POSSIBLY SPREAD AT A
FAST RATE. ANY NEW FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL ALSO HAVE THE CHANCE TO
SPREAD QUICKLY.

RESIDENTS OF EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA NEED TO BE EXTRA VIGILANT TO PREVENT WILDFIRES...DUE
TO THE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD.

JKL placed much of, if not all of, its CWA under a red flag warning, but I believe relative humidity was too high here. Otherwise, I'm not sure what else the NWS could have done. Fires are notoriously unpredictable, particularly when sparked by downed power lines during a mountain wave event. As for media coverage, I do not live in the Knoxville market and cannot speak to the quality of coverage provided by local OCMs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I understand that and believe me I am not attacking anyone, really just sort of looking in hindsight which is always dangerous but also a great way to learn from an event.  All the clues for the potential of something large occurring where there.  I'm not saying anyone failed or its a fault of any agency at all, again just hard to look at it all and not come to the realization that we had the clues and didn't fully piece them together for something of this magnitude.

Disaster provides an opportunity to reflect and learn. This appears to be the result a perfect storm, if you will. The fire began in perfect position for the wind to fan flames directly toward a densely populated area. That is incredibly rare, especially in this area.

Acquaintances living in Gatlinburg were in contact at the time of the evacuation order. Thirty minutes prior to the order, they had no idea the fire had escaped the park; fifteen minutes after the order, fire was beginning to engulf land surrounding their neighborhood as they fled. I'm not sure how one plans for that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cell phone EAS did not go off last night for my tornado warning. Fortunately we subscribe to Weather Call weathercallservices dot com. Need 1-2 back-ups such as a NOAA weather radio and Weather Call. The latter is $10 a year and well worth it. Nobody else has the number of outgoing lines to get the word to you. Too few outgoing lines (or not enough bandwidth their end) is why most apps are slow to notify. Often I get it from Weather Call before the EAS, if the EAS even works.

Thought about the severe thread for this message, but I believe it is important enough to be on this pinned thread. I have zero personal interest in Weather Call. It is simply the best system to get your alerts. Weather Call works with both cell phones and land lines.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Cell phone EAS did not go off last night for my tornado warning. Fortunately we subscribe to Weather Call weathercallservices dot com. Need 1-2 back-ups such as a NOAA weather radio and Weather Call. The latter is $10 a year and well worth it. Nobody else has the number of outgoing lines to get the word to you. Too few outgoing lines (or not enough bandwidth their end) is why most apps are slow to notify. Often I get it from Weather Call before the EAS, if the EAS even works.

Thought about the severe thread for this message, but I believe it is important enough to be on this pinned thread. I have zero personal interest in Weather Call. It is simply the best system to get your alerts. Weather Call works with both cell phones and land lines.

 

Interestingly, my work and personal iPhones did go off with EAS. My wife's Android phone never did for either warning. Not sure what was the cause of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...