Tropical Storm Julia

[PaEasternWX]

Current Sat image of Julia. 

[weatherscanner]

well, it exists, that's all you can really say. will do nothing to jacksonville though

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

the LLC looks just offshore to me.  (contrary to current position)

 

[janetjanet998]

6 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

the LLC looks just offshore to me.  (contrary to current position)

 

me too...over 80-82F water..but west of the gulf stream..shear is decreasing some too

but will be back over land soon unless it turns more east

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

things gettin interesting. 

11am discussion.

There is a possibility, however, that
the system could strengthen if it moves far enough out over water.

The center of Julia may be reforming closer to the Georgia coast,
although the surface observations are not yet definitive, and the
initial motion is a highly uncertain 030/5 kt.  The tropical
cyclone is likely to remain in weak steering currents near the axis
of the subtropical ridge, and the track guidance models indicate
that some erratic motion is likely over the next couple of days.
The official forecast shows a very slow motion after 12 hours, and
is east of the previous NHC track.

[Chinook]

This actually looks pretty nasty, but there are only 10-15 kt winds on land. Charleston radar vertical wind profiler has up to 35 kt winds in the low altitudes and 20kt winds at 10000 ft.

 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

5 minutes ago, Chinook said:

This actually looks pretty nasty, but there are only 10-15 kt winds on land

 

 

 

gusts to 40 mph a few miles offshore.

this could be very problematic for SC...hang around for days, just offshore.  and possibly strengthen.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

looking pretty healthy as well

 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

few miles from the Eye.

storm should be getting more attention.

EDIT: Gusts to 49mph now at 41033

[janetjanet998]

storm has almost  stalled I think..new RAP keeps it stalled 

CHS could have major flooding issues if that band of heavy rain keeps developing like it has all morning

 

 

 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

I'm just surprised at the lack of convection at the moment. 

and maybe how this could be another awkward 3-eyed monster type cyclone.   (eye jumpin around all over)

41033 gusting to 56mph now.  (5:30pm)

[janetjanet998]

seems wind shear has increased again

[Hoth]

Center drifting east by the look of it. Nice convection, though displaced from COC for the time being.

[Chinook]

Charleston is a great town. Now it's a wet great town (9/14-9/15, then 9/13-9/14)

 

 

[RubiksDestroyer]

NHC Discussion suggests the stars may align just right for Julia tonight:

Quote

Julia has a narrow window of opportunity to strengthen tonight and
Monday morning when the vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken
significantly and the upper-level flow is expected to become more
anticyclonic. These more conducive dynamics are forecast to coincide
with the nighttime convective maximum period and also during the
time when Julia will be over the Gulf Stream where SSTs are 29-30C.
Buoy reports offshore the South Carolina coast indicate that surface
dew points have increased to near 80F, a further indication that the
atmosphere surrounding Julia is becoming more conducive for
regeneration of convection near the center later tonight.

Apparently, if Julia ever tries to "strengthen" again, it will most likely happen tonight.