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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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On 3/25/2018 at 7:48 AM, bowtie` said:

Nice eye candy. Is that your footage before the head-banging started, or is it stock footage from someone else?

The calm intro shots of L.A. are licensed stock footage! I don't do that kinda fancy photography!

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Bout to have a beast out there in the wpac and most models carry it to a landfall so should be an interesting forecast coming up for them.

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models are in great agreement on future track. Wonder with such strong agreement and a 115knt typhoon forecast to affect Kadena if Josh is gonna chase?

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Super Typhoon Maria (not to be confused with last year's Atlantic storm) has reached 140 knots as per the JTWC. This will weaken slowly as it approaches China and north Taiwan. (Taiwan on the west side of this map)

cr6nFBv.jpg

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Radar image of Typhoon Maria, from Taiwan. This shows a lot of heavy rain bands over Taiwan. It is asymmetric Cat-2  to Cat-3 intensity at this time.

bayFta9.jpg

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Soulik probably wont be at typhoon intensity when it makes landfall in Korea, but fairly remarkable that Thursday will have simultaneous possible typhoon landfalls in Japan and Korea.

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12z GFS shows Jebi striking the central Honshu coast on Tuesday around 10-12z (late evening Japanese time) with central pressures remaining sub-920 mb. Looks very similar to Katrina on these maps.

The current landfall zone is south of Osaka placing Nagoya and Chita in the forward sector but Osaka and Kyoto very close to the fast-moving eye as it swerves northeast. I've been advising travelling friends who at this point are booked into hotel in Kyoto 1st to 4th but main point being this could shift either way so at this point just as safe to be there as Tokyo or far western Honshu. The models have been fairly consistent for days although speeding up the landfall, with respect to central Honshu as the target.

Could be a high impact storm for any of these large cities or even Tokyo especially if track shifts east at all. On this track looks like Tokyo would see cat-1 conditions while Nagoya and Chita could see as high as cat-4.

You also have to wonder if a significant earthquake would be imminent given these approaching tidal stresses. 

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12z GFS shows Jebi striking the central Honshu coast on Tuesday around 10-12z (late evening Japanese time) with central pressures remaining sub-920 mb. Looks very similar to Katrina on these maps. The current landfall zone is south of Osaka placing Nagoya and Chita in the forward sector but Osaka and Kyoto very close to the fast-moving eye as it swerves northeast. I've been advising travelling friends who at this point are booked into hotel in Kyoto 1st to 4th but main point being this could shift either way so at this point just as safe to be there as Tokyo or far western Honshu. The models have been fairly consistent for days although speeding up the landfall, with respect to central Honshu as the target.Could be a high impact storm for any of these large cities or even Tokyo especially if track shifts east at all. On this track looks like Tokyo would see cat-1 conditions while Nagoya and Chita could see as high as cat-4.You also have to wonder if a significant earthquake would be imminent given these approaching tidal stresses.
Be careful with use of that word imminent in describing an increased probability of a significant earthquake. Though there has been research that has tried to link small and prolonged seismic signals to tidal stresses, there has yet to be any substantial evidence correlating a single large seismic event based on the tidal influences and lower atmospheric surface pressures of a tropical cyclone. Simply put, there is yet no known mechanism to forecast failure of a fault based on a single weather event such as a tropical cyclone. The stresses of rock deformation, elastic and isostatic rebound are many factors exponentially greater on scale than to that of any atmospheric pressure influence by a single weather event. We also have too many examples of strong typhoons hitting Japan with little or negligible large seismic event observed. There is simply no evidence to support such a precursor, much less a prediction. However, Japan is always under threat of a strong seismic event simply due to the many active thrust faults there besides. So a threat is always high compared to other populated geographic locations regardless of what is occurring in the atmosphere. 

 

The same strong mid-level trough responsible for steering Jebi towards Honshu may also phase it. This will be a timing issue but I agree that Jebi has a good chance of being a significant strike. There may be mid-level shear impeding upon Jebi as it approaches landfall, but SSTs are still running 27-28°C off the coast there, so though I do expect quite a bit of weakening, it could still be packing 100+ kts. Could be a damaging event. Those folks are seasoned to handle it, however, though I am certainly not downplaying the threat.

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The GFS continues to be annoyingly overblown on intensity modeling. Jebi at 918 mb just off the coast while imbedded in strong SW mid level flow? No...

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Will have some on-scene reports from my travelling friends who are going to ride this out in Kyoto, supposed to be within 50 miles of the eye around 06z to 08z (Tuesday afternoon JST).

This is a radar I will be watching to check the exact track of Jebi. 

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/

Good satellite imagery here:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms150jp/

It is midnight in the region now so about 12-15 hours to landfalls and impacts (first Shikoku Island, eastern half, then near Kobe west of Osaka, storm accelerates and moves across Honshu in a few hours and then at TS intensity up the north coast as far as western Hokkaido). My friends are in a modern style hotel that is a smaller building than some nearby, and the whole area is flat but 45 metres above sea level so I'm thinking no real flooding or tsunami potential, they are also on the west side of the building so much of the storm will be producing east to south winds and they are relatively sheltered from those. If the track stays a bit west, should be close to remnants of eyewall during height of storm, hoping for some interesting accounts if not pictures. Told them to expect a bit of a cleanup day outside on Wednesday then back to normal. 

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On 9/1/2018 at 9:41 AM, Windspeed said:

The GFS continues to be annoyingly overblown on intensity modeling. Jebi at 918 mb just off the coast while imbedded in strong SW mid level flow? No...

Since it's 945 mb out in the open Pacific now, more likely to be around 950-955 at landfall perhaps? Seems to be only a strong cat-2 or weak cat-3 at present. 

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Looks like the eye is headed for either eastern Shikoku or the strait between that island and Honshu but in any case a second landfall will occur near Kobe just west of Osaka. Given the populations and port infrastructure of the two landfall areas, the second one will be more problematic. Hoping the first one weakens the storm enough that the second landfall will be less intense, perhaps a strong cat-1 as opposed to 2. Well it won't be long now looking at radar and satellite animations, the thing is accelerating NNE-ward. 

Roughly 15-20 million people live in the Osaka region then there's Nagoya one bay east, five million more there. 

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Super Typhoon Mangkhut is now a textbook Category 5 cyclone, and JTWC predicts that it will impact the northern Phillipines (Luzon.)  It might be a pretty close call with landfall

 

Quote
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM 
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A 200NM DIAMETER CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 27NM ROUND EYE AND 
BANDING FEATURE. A 121709Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES AN ONGOING 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND 
DISTINCT MOAT FEATURE EVIDENT. DESPITE THE ERC AND SLIGHT EROSION OF 
THE INNER EYEWALL OVER THE NNE QUADRANT, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED 
SLIGHTLY TO 155 KNOTS, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 7.5 (155 
KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 156 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST, AND LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SST (29-30C) AND HIGH OCEAN 
HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY FAVORABLE. STY 26W IS TRACKING WESTWARD 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

 

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On 9/12/2018 at 9:14 PM, Chinook said:

Super Typhoon Mangkhut is now a textbook Category 5 cyclone, and JTWC predicts that it will impact the northern Phillipines (Luzon.)  It might be a pretty close call with landfall

 

 

It looks a like a direct hit at this time and has actually intensified since earlier today. So that ought to be the big tropical storm weather story, not Florence. But this is American Weather so fair enough

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/MANGKHUT.html

wv002_43_05.gif

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This track for Supertyphoon 'Mangkhut' has thus far been accurate. 

Looks like for sure is going to be a direct hit on the northern part of Luzon, Phillipines. And then open ocean for a long way, and becoming a threat to Southeast Asia

DnCeG-YWwAEAvjc02_47_47.jpg

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1 hour ago, ICEHOCEY77 said:

has made a turn more to the west, he might be a touch north of the eye.

Yeah. I think he is all eyewall all the time. This is his scariest chase from an outside perspective. 

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