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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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people can read the posts and decide themselves about the hype. 

it's all love, man.  i like your posts.  but i am just staking out a strong position. the storm is increasingly looking like crap, the JTWC forecast is loltastic, and japan can handle it. 

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54 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:
people can read the posts and decide themselves about the hype.

 

it's all love, man.  i like your posts.  but i am just staking out a strong position. the storm is increasingly looking like crap, the JTWC forecast is loltastic, and japan can handle it.

They can handle a Cat 2/3, yes, they have sea walls and well built structures. But that's besides the point. Even a Cat 2, don't take it seriously and it hits a densely populated area, see what happens. And just based on current motion, 15-20kt of weakening is probably close to the mark. It wouldn't be good and it will cause destruction. Nobody was hyping this.

Edit: Current intensity is 125 kts and that may even be high. Earlier, when Lan looked a lot better, mind you, I made the 15-20 kt comment based on its appearance versus rapid forward motion. It's down to 125 kts. So give me the benefit of the doubt of 20 kts. You win. It will clearly weaken more than 20 kts. Probably 30 kts by landfall. Congratulations. I apologize for overhyping a 135 kt typhoon based on a worry of rapid motion. A Cat 2/3 landfall was forecast throughout and that is likely what it will be. Never called for anything higher, but you are correct. I insinuated hype with the word "worry" that it wouldn't weaken below Cat 3. It most likely will. Cheers!

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115 kts ... massive wind radiii:

6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM AS THE ONCE LARGE EYE FEATURE IS NOW OBSCURED BY DENSE OVERCAST LAYER WHILE EXHIBITING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, A 220441Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION STILL MOSTLY INTACT WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE ERODING AWAY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T7.0 (102 TO 140 KNOTS) AND A 220542Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120 KNOTS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE OVER TY 25W NOW DISRUPTED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY TY 25W IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

 

Near or at landfall:

FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 34.6N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 375 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 370 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

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21 minutes ago, Amped said:

Probably down to a tame 100kts with a 10 foot storm surge over the worlds most populated area. No big deal.  

This is 100kts? IMG_3512.thumb.PNG.82229d1142e969455295fd1a8facec36.PNG

 

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12 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

This is 100kts? IMG_3512.thumb.PNG.82229d1142e969455295fd1a8facec36.PNG

 

Sandy definitely looked worse. If they had satellite in 1938 it probably wouldn't have looked much better. Transitioning storms aren't going to look as good on satellite.

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I looked around on the JMA site all afternoon and found a few places that had max winds around 30 m/s, which is about 70mph.  Most of the places had hours of 20-25 m/s winds so it was a prolonged gale for sure.

I doubt the highest winds were sampled but I bet this was a cat 1 at landfall.

Himiwari 9 loop of landfall...

http://col.st/ebQlF

 

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JTWC forecast calls for Tropical Storm Saola to become a borderline 65 kt Category 1 cyclone southwest of Tokyo and then miss Tokyo by a little bit. The GFS and Euro later have this cyclone merging with baroclinic energy to create **another** huge low pressure near the Kamchatka Peninsula. Perhaps so much energy in the Pacific will send some more interesting downstream troughs and ridges our way.

mxkgDJj.png

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6 hours ago, Drz1111 said:
That looks like a typical JTWC "tropical storm" bearing down on Vietnam.

I like this system to undergo a period rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hrs into landfall. I think this makes landfall stronger than 80kts. Perhaps even reaches Category 3. The core is getting established and the upper environment is clearly favorable. 27-28°C SSTs should support sufficient enough instability given the divergence aloft and jetstreak to the north.cdba9b21cfdb072e994ff26d27789834.jpg

 

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Looks to me like a strong cat 2, might be done intensifying due to dry air downsloping off of the coastal mountains of Vietnam.  Either way, an unusually strong storm for that stretch of coast line, normally they get shells that have been shredded by earlier landfalls.

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GFS  and ECMWF D9-10 showing a possible Philippines storm.

Storms don't often form below 10N, but when they do, there isn't much shear, and SSTS stay high year round in these areas.

EoWA7jI.png

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