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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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This one escalated quickly. Just upped the winds to 135kts and has landfall sooner. Not sure of the population where its headed but it could be really bad.

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1 hour ago, shaggy said:
This one escalated quickly. Just upped the winds to 135kts and has landfall sooner. Not sure of the population where its headed but it could be really bad.

Most of the communities along the track have densely populated townships even if they are small in size, such as Puri, India, which has around 200k residents in its last census. Puri may also find itself in the right-front quadrant of the eyewall. Trying to estimate track, Chatrapur, a smaller township of about 20k may get the direct hit. Regardless, as the cyclone moves inland, there are even higher population densities across the state of Odisha, and of course, per usual, the greatest threat is still going to be flash flooding of low lying communities.ba71783e1863037378214309e21dd54e.gifc4b2b6018936bbe53c53d41df077346c.jpg

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Most of the communities along the track have densely populated townships even if they are small in size, such as Puri, India, which has around 200k residents in its last census. Puri may also find itself in the right-front quadrant of the eyewall. Trying to estimate track, Chatrapur, a smaller township of about 20k may get the direct hit. Regardless, as the cyclone moves inland, there are even higher population densities across the state of Odisha, and of course, per usual, the greatest threat is still going to be flash flooding of low lying communities.ba71783e1863037378214309e21dd54e.gifc4b2b6018936bbe53c53d41df077346c.jpg

Luckily it looks as if cloud tops are warming as it begins to interact with land on the NW side of the core. Still gonna be a big hit for them.

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5 hours ago, shaggy said:

Luckily it looks as if cloud tops are warming as it begins to interact with land on the NW side of the core. Still gonna be a big hit for them.

Not a great track for a high end landfall. Trajectory has too much land interaction before landfall. Good for what I assume are poor people living in substandard housing. All of the money in India is in the major city’s with the rest of the country still relatively poor. 

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TC Vayu in the NW Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea is forecast to become a Category 2 cyclone in the coming days and make landfall over the NW Indian and Pakistani coastline / borderlands. HWRF is most agressive in intensification making Vayu a Category 4 cyclone. The late track may be quite problematic for significant flash flooding as the cyclone will slow down and drift somewhere between Sindhu (Indus) of Pakistan and Mahi River Valleys.978aacd6a92450c71523ac28774308a5.gife871bbdb1840eb236b36f4a8a6843d87.jpg

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Vanu began a westward drift and should avoid landfall as a strong cyclone. Globals show a westward motion for a few days before eventually getting sheared off. A weaker system may still get pulled via the low level flow into Pakistan/NW India so flooding rainfall may still be a concern in the coming week.fcf804eaaa4913158365f6e308ed3148.gif

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