Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

Recommended Posts

This one escalated quickly. Just upped the winds to 135kts and has landfall sooner. Not sure of the population where its headed but it could be really bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, shaggy said:
This one escalated quickly. Just upped the winds to 135kts and has landfall sooner. Not sure of the population where its headed but it could be really bad.

Most of the communities along the track have densely populated townships even if they are small in size, such as Puri, India, which has around 200k residents in its last census. Puri may also find itself in the right-front quadrant of the eyewall. Trying to estimate track, Chatrapur, a smaller township of about 20k may get the direct hit. Regardless, as the cyclone moves inland, there are even higher population densities across the state of Odisha, and of course, per usual, the greatest threat is still going to be flash flooding of low lying communities.ba71783e1863037378214309e21dd54e.gifc4b2b6018936bbe53c53d41df077346c.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Most of the communities along the track have densely populated townships even if they are small in size, such as Puri, India, which has around 200k residents in its last census. Puri may also find itself in the right-front quadrant of the eyewall. Trying to estimate track, Chatrapur, a smaller township of about 20k may get the direct hit. Regardless, as the cyclone moves inland, there are even higher population densities across the state of Odisha, and of course, per usual, the greatest threat is still going to be flash flooding of low lying communities.ba71783e1863037378214309e21dd54e.gifc4b2b6018936bbe53c53d41df077346c.jpg

Luckily it looks as if cloud tops are warming as it begins to interact with land on the NW side of the core. Still gonna be a big hit for them.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, shaggy said:

Luckily it looks as if cloud tops are warming as it begins to interact with land on the NW side of the core. Still gonna be a big hit for them.

Not a great track for a high end landfall. Trajectory has too much land interaction before landfall. Good for what I assume are poor people living in substandard housing. All of the money in India is in the major city’s with the rest of the country still relatively poor. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TC Vayu in the NW Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea is forecast to become a Category 2 cyclone in the coming days and make landfall over the NW Indian and Pakistani coastline / borderlands. HWRF is most agressive in intensification making Vayu a Category 4 cyclone. The late track may be quite problematic for significant flash flooding as the cyclone will slow down and drift somewhere between Sindhu (Indus) of Pakistan and Mahi River Valleys.978aacd6a92450c71523ac28774308a5.gife871bbdb1840eb236b36f4a8a6843d87.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Vanu began a westward drift and should avoid landfall as a strong cyclone. Globals show a westward motion for a few days before eventually getting sheared off. A weaker system may still get pulled via the low level flow into Pakistan/NW India so flooding rainfall may still be a concern in the coming week.fcf804eaaa4913158365f6e308ed3148.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The investing the wpac is modeled to be a strong cane with landfall over Japan. Gfs is stronger and more west with a pressure in the 930 range while euro is into Japan with 970ish.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS has two storms in the next few days in the Pacific. Typhoon Lekima, farther west, is expected to be 130 kt (Category 4) near Ishigakijima, Japan and also at 80 kt near the Chinese landfall point (JTWC)

pRo87zH.png

 

4TUzO4U.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lekima is approaching 130 kts or upper Cat 4 per ADT#s the past few hours. This cyclone may even become a Cat 5 on Saffir Simpson scale. Of course a reminder that the agency responsible for that region measures in 10-minute sustained averages, but nonetheless the TC is a beast tha lt may be a Super Typhoon near initial brush / land interaction with Ryukyu Islands, Japan, near to Ishagaki.c92ec4479015e82fcaa24155cf188a36.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont think this will intensify much more. Radar from taiwan is indicative of an EWRC/imperfect core. Passed through at 130kts though, so nothing to scoff at.

 

CV1_3600_201908090020.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said:

How about that for a trochoidal wobble.

 

Man if those 2 little islandsare inhabited that was a tough break as that kept them in the eyewall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, shaggy said:

Man if those 2 little islandsare inhabited that was a tough break as that kept them in the eyewall.

I'm not so sure about that. The radar suggests they only clipped the outer part of the eye wall. I'm sure it was still a rough ride but not as hellacious as that inner eye wall. 

cE2uvO1.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, KoalaBeer said:

I'm not so sure about that. The radar suggests they only clipped the outer part of the eye wall. I'm sure it was still a rough ride but not as hellacious as that inner eye wall. 

cE2uvO1.gif

Any observation from those islands.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×