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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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Without Guam radar, hard to tell how much of the eyewall Saipan is likely to get, Looks like Tinian is likely to have the eye go party over it.

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Statement from NWS Guam.

...
AS SUPER TYPHOON YUTU (31W) CONTINUES TO APPROACH...SUSTAINED
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 130 TO 160 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 185 MPH. DEVASTATING DAMAGE IS EXPECTED. COLLAPSE OF
SOME RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES WILL PUT LIVES AT RISK. AIRBORNE DEBRIS
WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK STRUCK BY
THE WIND BLOWN DEBRIS WILL BE INJURED OR KILLED. MOST HOMES WILL
SUSTAIN SEVERE DAMAGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR COMPLETE ROOF FAILURE AND
WALL COLLAPSE. MOST INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...WITH
OTHERS EXPERIENCING PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. MOST LOW RISE
APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...AND
OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. NUMEROUS WINDOWS WILL
BE BLOWN OUT OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS RESULTING IN FALLING
GLASS...WHICH WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAYS TO WEEKS AFTER THE STORM.
CONSIDERABLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO LARGE BUILDINGS IS POSSIBLE.
ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS AND PERHAPS WEEKS
AFTER THE STORM PASSES. MOST TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.
FALLEN TREES MAY CUT OFF RESIDENTIAL AREAS FOR DAYS TO WEEKS.

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8 hours ago, shaggy said:

It would be nice for Saipan if this westward motion were to continue for a few hours as that would certainly spare them the core but if it "wobbles" back north much at all then they could get the eyewall. Gonna be a very close call for them.

Just an incredible looking storm right now.

Well next to worse case scenario for Saipan. They at least got the calm of the eye for a little bit. Worst case would have been in the eyewall for the entire time. 

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Very clean microwave during landfall. Distinct concentric features with an ERC in early stages. Two wind maxima were probably experienced in Tinian and Saipan with the larger outter band and insanely intense inner eyewall.

Infared can be deceiving for exact path of the wall over those islands as well. The Himawari satellite is positioned at a plane of lower latitude and at an acute angle south of the typhoon. IR images reflect colder cloud tops that only start to resolve at the mid-to-upper level of the eye. You must account for the height of the eyewall cylinder down to the surface at that distance. A visible image with sunlight at the same angle will show the lower-level circulation, closer to the surface, at the bottom of the eyewall cylinder.

It's frustrating we don't have observable radar for a US territory besides, but it is what it is. Luckily we did have the clean microwave scan at landfall. And perhaps the airport/military will have some closed network remote sensing before all hell broke lose; and hopefully some instrumentation survived for pressure distribution.6006c71da03560222c933d2a6f87074b.jpg

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Night time visible band uses moon light and some other remote sensing techniques. You can see the stadium shape of the eye down near the surface and lower level. The northern portion of Saipan may have missed the worst of the eyewall but it's still a guess at this point. The southern half may have got the worst. Clearly all of Tinian experienced full frontal and backside winds. I want to refrain from hyperbole, but there probably is catastrophic devestation for anything not built within the strictest of code. Image courtesy of CIMSS and William Straka and Scott Bachmeier:



Use the direct link here if you want full resolution from CIMSS as the GIF is too large to post or is just will not animate correctly as posted to the forum.

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Yutu appears to be reintensifying. The ERC completed many hours ago and both microwave and visible imagery confirm a large and well-developed eyewall that continues to clear out. It is surrounded by a rather large CDO -- a big donut.

Yutu may also not be done with land either. Some of the globals are flirting with Luzon. It is possible Yutu could even have a south of west motion for a time as heights may rebuild west under a lifting trough to the north. That trough was originally capturing Yutu, but that solution is losing recent model support.

33c2c02c50342f4cd7311b8e294bae9b.jpgeb606738e6b34b509c7feeed3dc9a0a6.gif

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If the eye were less ragged we'd be talking about yutu returning to its former glory. There's pretty good model agreement now on a track similar to Mangkhut. I feel for the small communities trying to rebuild there, if it does indeed make landfall (hopefully with some substantial weakening beforehand).

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On 10/26/2018 at 7:06 AM, olafminesaw said:

If the eye were less ragged we'd be talking about yutu returning to its former glory. There's pretty good model agreement now on a track similar to Mangkhut. I feel for the small communities trying to rebuild there, if it does indeed make landfall (hopefully with some substantial weakening beforehand).

It has continued to trend to the south and now looks to make a more sizable impact on the Philippines.

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Just came across this from Typhoon Jebi. The Hong Kong videos earlier this season got a lot of attention, but this stuff out of the Osaka area is pretty dramatic too. Kansai International Airport gusted to 130 mph and even the downtown business district of Osaka had a 106 mph gust. 

 

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1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

Just came across this from Typhoon Jebi. The Hong Kong videos earlier this season got a lot of attention, but this stuff out of the Osaka area is pretty dramatic too. Kansai International Airport gusted to 130 mph and even the downtown business district of Osaka had a 106 mph gust. 

 

Great find.  :o at the cars being tossed around at :40.

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The sine wave with the roofing material of that bike/bus stop awning at the very beginning was amazing from a physics/ math point of view.

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Super Typhoon Wutip was upgraded to Cat 5. No, not unusual to see those in the WPAC, but it's a first for February. In fact, this is the first classified Cat 5 ever in the northern hemisphere for the month. 28°C SSTs around the Marinas are still warm enough to support the intensity, but atmospheric favorability and outflow for this cyclone is textbook.

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Cyclone Idai, moving across the Mozambique Channel has completed an ERC and slightly reintensified to Cat 3. The internal structure of the cyclone has taken on annular characteristics. It is forecast to make landfall near the city of Beira in Mozambique. Despite Idai's intensity, flash flooding will be the greatest threat to the city and surrounding region. Certainly storm surge up the Pungwe River also poses a dangerous threat to life and property.cbcbcf34e90c34d9e415a82526c91493.jpg

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