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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones


1900hurricane
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5 minutes ago, shaggy said:

It's a race now to see if it finishes the ewrc before reaching Guam.

I think it completed a few hours ago, but it ingested a ton of dry air in the process. This has caused a lopsided eye and a weakness on the north side of the storm. It seem to be starting to mix out the dry air and wrap convection around the eye, as the structure stabilizes. Weakening should at least stop before reaching Guam, and has a chance at re-intensification before landfall.

Screenshot_2023-05-23-11-52-30-174.jpg

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1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

I think it completed a few hours ago, but it ingested a ton of dry air in the process. This has caused a lopsided eye and a weakness on the north side of the storm. It seem to be starting to mix out the dry air and wrap convection around the eye, as the structure stabilizes. Weakening should at least stop before reaching Guam, and has a chance at re-intensification before landfall.

Screenshot_2023-05-23-11-52-30-174.jpg

Yeah unless we see that eye clearing out again I'd say strengthening is unlikely before Guam 

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Man, very interesting system. That dry air entrainment and ERC hit at the right time and really disrupted the core. Radar showed the northern section of the core pretty ragged before the radar went offline. PGUM reported gusts just shy of typhoon force about 30 minutes ago.

It also looks like we got a fairly significant wobble north. Chasing ain’t for the faint of heart, and it takes extra special fortitude to play island roulette as Josh would call it. 

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Kind of hard to tell from the now out of operation radar, but I don’t think this has collapsed that much given the IR presentation. Obviously not high end 4 but it’s at least a high end 3 I believe especially in the southern part. 

The track is the bigger issue IMO. Now the northern and western part of Guam is in the surge zone. 

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If the GFS is correct, Mawar tracks west towards Luzon and stalls east of Taiwan around 29th, then is caught up in the subtropical jet and moves all the way across the Pacific around 35-40N to slam into the west coast of the U.S. by about June 8-10. That would dump a lot of subtropical heat into the circulation and might be a signal of a very hot spell in the central and eastern U.S. by mid June. 

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