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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones


1900hurricane
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  • 1 month later...

Might as well revive this thread as it looks like the tropics briefly turn active in the WPAC and BOB. TD 01 in the looks like it should make landfall in the Philippines as typhoon as conditions look quite favorable ahead of it as it tracks around the subtropical ridge.

The ECMWF solution in the BOB is what really grabs my attention however. It's never a good thing when the Euro is showing a storm as such in this region. Long ways out on that one so things will most definitely change, but the potential is there. 

 

ecmwf_ow850_india_fh192-192.gif

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Vongfong has managed to intensify into a compact category 3 typhoon. Earlier forecasts had it passing just north of Samar, but I don't think it's going to avoid the island at this point. Between it and some of the solutions for 91B, it appears the NHEM tropics are beginning to wake up for the season.

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Amphan is likely a Cat 5 Saffir-Simpson right now. But it has a very tiny core. Outer banding is also clearly intensifying and consolidating a circular structure on MW. An ERC within 24 hrs will be underway. The real question is what happens after that ERC for the low-delta and coastal plain. Will a larger eyewall begin intensification prior to landfall or will Amphan struggle through landfall? Varying landfall intensities with a larger eyewall could be mitigatable or catastrophic event for Bangladesh. All we can so at this point is wait and see how Amphan morphs and evolves.62d93ce1d4f9bcb2b7d6025573016b3c.jpg&key=9e15682d82372bb66da6fea4d3e2d35930457c53e9285d5058f591dcd08806c8

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Eyewall replacement has completed, but ENE shear is beginning to make itself known. Recent microwave imagery shows it eating away at the structure on the eastern side. When viewing water vapor imagery, the thunderstorm anvils to the east of Amphan clearly show the shear vector. The shear direction may become slightly more favorable as guidance shows it gaining a more southerly component as Amphan moves north, but that should be canceled out by the increasing magnitude over the same time frame. My expectation is that Amphan will be weakening from here on out.

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9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hey—can you explain more what I should be looking at here? Is it the CAPE values?

It's not so much the CAPE values themselves as it is how tall the CAPE profile is. It extends past 100 mb and off the top of the SHARPpy skew-T. The output on the far right of the same table that displays the CAPE and other values shows the parcel should finally stop rising almost 18 km up! Lifting a saturated parcel that high releases a huge amount of latent heat.

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  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...
2 hours ago, Chinook said:

Did Haishen achieve Category 5 status (137 kt or higher)? I'm so intrigued that the US Gulf faced a double storm threat, now, southern Japan to Korea is certainly facing a double large storm threat just 1 week later, or roughly one week.

I'm not sure how the Japan Meteorological Agency defines sustained vs gusting winds, but I believe it's forecast to peak in intensity today with the following:

Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)

I don't think that would quite be Cat 5 but their measurements might be different too, I'm not really sure.

Here's how the Japanese government is talking about it (with help from Google Translate): 

The Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism held a joint press conference one after another on the 3rd and 4th, calling for the maximum caution against the approaching typhoon No. 10 using the word "special warning level". The "special alert" is one of the largest alerts that indicates an "emergency situation", such as once every several decadesIt is unusual to mention from an early stage that the forecast may change depending on the future course of the typhoon. In order not to cause a serious life-threatening situation. If there is an unprecedented danger, it is necessary to be fully prepared and vigilant. 

 

 

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