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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones


1900hurricane
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54 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:
people can read the posts and decide themselves about the hype.

 

it's all love, man.  i like your posts.  but i am just staking out a strong position. the storm is increasingly looking like crap, the JTWC forecast is loltastic, and japan can handle it.

They can handle a Cat 2/3, yes, they have sea walls and well built structures. But that's besides the point. Even a Cat 2, don't take it seriously and it hits a densely populated area, see what happens. And just based on current motion, 15-20kt of weakening is probably close to the mark. It wouldn't be good and it will cause destruction. Nobody was hyping this.

Edit: Current intensity is 125 kts and that may even be high. Earlier, when Lan looked a lot better, mind you, I made the 15-20 kt comment based on its appearance versus rapid forward motion. It's down to 125 kts. So give me the benefit of the doubt of 20 kts. You win. It will clearly weaken more than 20 kts. Probably 30 kts by landfall. Congratulations. I apologize for overhyping a 135 kt typhoon based on a worry of rapid motion. A Cat 2/3 landfall was forecast throughout and that is likely what it will be. Never called for anything higher, but you are correct. I insinuated hype with the word "worry" that it wouldn't weaken below Cat 3. It most likely will. Cheers!

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115 kts ... massive wind radiii:

6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM AS THE ONCE LARGE EYE FEATURE IS NOW OBSCURED BY DENSE OVERCAST LAYER WHILE EXHIBITING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, A 220441Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION STILL MOSTLY INTACT WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE ERODING AWAY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T7.0 (102 TO 140 KNOTS) AND A 220542Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120 KNOTS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE OVER TY 25W NOW DISRUPTED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY TY 25W IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

 

Near or at landfall:

FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 34.6N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 375 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 370 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

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I looked around on the JMA site all afternoon and found a few places that had max winds around 30 m/s, which is about 70mph.  Most of the places had hours of 20-25 m/s winds so it was a prolonged gale for sure.

I doubt the highest winds were sampled but I bet this was a cat 1 at landfall.

Himiwari 9 loop of landfall...

http://col.st/ebQlF

 

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JTWC forecast calls for Tropical Storm Saola to become a borderline 65 kt Category 1 cyclone southwest of Tokyo and then miss Tokyo by a little bit. The GFS and Euro later have this cyclone merging with baroclinic energy to create **another** huge low pressure near the Kamchatka Peninsula. Perhaps so much energy in the Pacific will send some more interesting downstream troughs and ridges our way.

mxkgDJj.png

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6 hours ago, Drz1111 said:
That looks like a typical JTWC "tropical storm" bearing down on Vietnam.

I like this system to undergo a period rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hrs into landfall. I think this makes landfall stronger than 80kts. Perhaps even reaches Category 3. The core is getting established and the upper environment is clearly favorable. 27-28°C SSTs should support sufficient enough instability given the divergence aloft and jetstreak to the north.cdba9b21cfdb072e994ff26d27789834.jpg

 

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Looks to me like a strong cat 2, might be done intensifying due to dry air downsloping off of the coastal mountains of Vietnam.  Either way, an unusually strong storm for that stretch of coast line, normally they get shells that have been shredded by earlier landfalls.

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  • 1 month later...
  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

Severe Cylcone Gita is churning away in the S. Pacific near Tonga. It is still classified a Cat 4 based on latest advisory, though, based on over-night imagery, it may have weakened temporarily or gone through an ERC. That process appears to have completed as the eye is again clearing out. The core will cross through a favorable environment and higher SSTs the next 24-48 hours. As such, Gita may not yet have reached its maximum intensity. The core will pass very close if not over the island of Ono-i-Lau very close to or at Cat 5 intensity.5990d16964cf9abebcea7db5bcfff3d1.jpg412fbf645942e5aaf5409901ece2d236.jpg

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  • 1 month later...

Cyclone Marcus has been quite nuisance for Darwin and Kimberley in N. Australia the past few days. The core will be pulling away from the coast on Monday and will put on quite a show this week in the SE Indian Ocean. Forecast reasoning and modeling suggests a rapidly intensifying and prolonged cyclone event and Marcus may reach Category 5. Fortunately it will be doing so a good distance away from land.c2d0a1bfdcfbe272695c47ef1bd278cf.jpg

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Severe Cyclone Marcus is a Category 5 on the Australian scale. It would probably be a Cat 5 on the US and Japan scales at some point as well. The cyclone looks to have completed an ERC and the eye that was partially covered in cloud debris appears to be clearing again. Dvorak is closing on AdjT#7 and 135 kts. The CDO is symmetrical with a thick ring of -80°C tops and MW representive of an intense eyewall.

Here's the current Aus Met advisory:
 

Quote
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 205 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 285 kilometres per hour. 
Location: within 30 kilometres of 14.7 degrees South, 111.0 degrees East , 1020 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland and 870 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth . 
Movement: west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus is now tracking in a west southwest direction, well away from the WA mainland. Marcus may strengthen further during Wednesday before tracking towards the southwest on Thursday when it will start to weaken.

 

fa13fba07d32e7e54bd096cc37b9ac79.gif

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Marcus will definitely be among the most powerful tropical cyclones of 2018:

Quote

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  21 MAR 2018    Time :   193000 UTC
      Lat :   15:36:18 S     Lon :  108:03:12 E

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                7.1     7.4     7.4

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

 Center Temp : +15.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION 

 Ocean Basin : INDIAN        
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  133km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1006mb

 Satellite Name :   HIM-8 
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.5 degrees 

 

dngbwmq.gif

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Marcus is traversing cooler waters and weakening as expected. Without respite, however, another cyclone is intensifying rapidly out of the Torres Strait and moving into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Cyclone Nora already has a clearing eye surrounded by -80°C tops and is on the way to becoming severe. The system is moving through an increasingly favorable environment for significant intensification and could interact with land as an intense cyclone. A more unfavorable environment late on the forecast period and slow movement may allow weakening prior to landfall of the cyclone's core. But that same slow movement may exacerbate flooding.


6bcfe44db63299f9e8898a9a9177fc76.gif

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Oh, hey. My latest YouTube channel ad. A lot of my recent chaseporn crammed into a minute. Enjoy!
 

 

Haha nice work, Josh! I headbanged a little. Good luck on your chases this year. May they be as successful as 2017, though hopefully less witnessing to devestation of densely populated areas.

 

Edit: *2017

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17 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 


Haha nice work, Josh! I headbanged a little. Good luck on your chases this year. May they be as successful as 2018, though hopefully less witnessing to devestation of densely populated areas.

 

Hey, thanks! Glad you liked it! :) Agreed-- it would be nice to see less human impact this coming season-- the last was a bit much.

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On ‎3‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 3:57 PM, HurricaneJosh said:

Oh, hey. My latest YouTube channel ad. A lot of my recent chaseporn crammed into a minute. Enjoy!

 

 

Nice eye candy. Is that your footage before the head-banging started, or is it stock footage from someone else?

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