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Potential Hermine Impacts

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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mranger48

mranger48

Posted
Posted
Does anybody have a good understanding of what synoptically is making the ECMWF take this more eastward while so many of the other models are not ... and how realistic the ECMWF's synoptic assessment is? I mean, I understand that at least for now in the near-term, it appears to be verifying. But is it possible that the other models will verify as far as "loop back" is concerned? 

It appears to truly be clearing both up here in Westchester and out on LI at Long Beach.



I believe there is less/later interaction between upper air features of Hermine and the energy diving thru Va...so Hermine is able to escape further east at first before the pull back west to the coast


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Pamela

Pamela

Posted
Posted

I don't know...obviously a hurricane is structurally a good deal different from a winter storm (warm core / cold core)...though this thing is not too far from a hybrid or what they use to call a "neutercane"....and the steering currents and the placement of the semi permanent features on the map are in different spots and of different magnitudes than in February....but I still think that there is a common bond here...and that is that the two will invariably end up a bit further north & east than originally modeled...the prevailing westerlies always seem to see to it.

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted

Nice write up by Mt Holly NWS.

All depends on far west the storm wants to weenie out.

Wait and see with who gets slammed with coastal flooding and tree and limb damage.

  

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
* Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine to continue to impact the region
  into the new week.*

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine will meander E of southern NJ over
the western Atlantic on Sunday, possibly strengthening back
hurricane force on Monday, before slowly lifting to the N on
Tuesday. Hermine will weaken a bit before moving to a position SE
of Montauk Point by Wednesday morning, and then finally tracking
to an area SE of Cape Cod by Thursday morning.

Although this storm is classified as a "Post-Tropical Cyclone",
it should not be taken lightly, as the impacts will be the same as
if it was classified as as Tropical Storm, or even a hurricane,
should it strengthen that much.

Most of the global models indicate Hermine meandering up to a
couple of hundred miles E of the DE coast on Sunday before
wobbling back towards the coast on Monday. Remains to be seen just
how far back to the west Hermine tracks, but latest suite of
models seem to keep it far enough east for it to be primarily a
coastal event. That does not rule out some bands of moderate to
locally heavy rain spreading back far enough to the west to impact
interior portions of DE and NJ, but the worst impacts will be
found along the coast with significant coastal flooding and
strong, potentially damaging winds with gusts up to 60 MPH
possible.

Going back towards the interior, winds will range from 15-20 MPH
with gusts up to 30 MPH across E PA and E MD, and winds will be
20- 30 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH across much of NJ and DE Sunday
and Monday.

Once Hermine begins to lift to the N and E on Monday and Monday
night, winds should begin to diminish, and rain chances will move
offshore. The problem with significant and potentially major
coastal flooding will persist through Monday, and then coastal
flooding will continue to be an issue through the middle of the
week, given how slow it will take for the water along the coast
and in the back bays to drain.

Conditions dry out by Wednesday, and a warm and humid airmass
spreads into the region for the middle to the end of the week,
with high temps soaring back to near and above 90 degrees, along
with moderate humidity levels with dewpoints increasing to well
into the 60s.

 

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Pamela

Pamela

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Pamela said:

Every station in NJ had a falling barometer at 4:00 PM (20z)...I'll check at 5 PM to see if the trend towards deteriorating weather persists...

Pressure was likewise falling at every Jersey station (save for Millville) at 5 PM / 21z.  In fairness, though, many of those stations were reporting breaks in the overcast or even fair skies.

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Keith O

Keith O

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Animal said:

Nice write up by Mt Holly NWS.

All depends on far west the storm wants to weenie out.

Wait and see with who gets slammed with coastal flooding and tree and limb damage.

  


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
* Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine to continue to impact the region
  into the new week.*

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine will meander E of southern NJ over
the western Atlantic on Sunday, possibly strengthening back
hurricane force on Monday, before slowly lifting to the N on
Tuesday. Hermine will weaken a bit before moving to a position SE
of Montauk Point by Wednesday morning, and then finally tracking
to an area SE of Cape Cod by Thursday morning.

Although this storm is classified as a "Post-Tropical Cyclone",
it should not be taken lightly, as the impacts will be the same as
if it was classified as as Tropical Storm, or even a hurricane,
should it strengthen that much.

Most of the global models indicate Hermine meandering up to a
couple of hundred miles E of the DE coast on Sunday before
wobbling back towards the coast on Monday. Remains to be seen just
how far back to the west Hermine tracks, but latest suite of
models seem to keep it far enough east for it to be primarily a
coastal event. That does not rule out some bands of moderate to
locally heavy rain spreading back far enough to the west to impact
interior portions of DE and NJ, but the worst impacts will be
found along the coast with significant coastal flooding and
strong, potentially damaging winds with gusts up to 60 MPH
possible.

Going back towards the interior, winds will range from 15-20 MPH
with gusts up to 30 MPH across E PA and E MD, and winds will be
20- 30 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH across much of NJ and DE Sunday
and Monday.

Once Hermine begins to lift to the N and E on Monday and Monday
night, winds should begin to diminish, and rain chances will move
offshore. The problem with significant and potentially major
coastal flooding will persist through Monday, and then coastal
flooding will continue to be an issue through the middle of the
week, given how slow it will take for the water along the coast
and in the back bays to drain.

Conditions dry out by Wednesday, and a warm and humid airmass
spreads into the region for the middle to the end of the week,
with high temps soaring back to near and above 90 degrees, along
with moderate humidity levels with dewpoints increasing to well
into the 60s.

 

So we go from sitting and watching a major storm sit and spin 200 miles SE/E of here to 90+ and humid with no rain in sight, ugh.

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larrye

larrye

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Pamela said:

Pressure was likewise falling at every Jersey station (save for Millville) at 5 PM / 21z.  In fairness, though, many of those stations were reporting breaks in the overcast or even fair skies.

Yes, but the effects in NYC and points north could be very different from what's being experienced in NJ. I don't know if the storm is strengthening at this point or not ... perhaps that is responsible for the dropping pressures while the storm is moving E or ENE. 

The 5PM update mentioned that there is still significant model divergence:  

The spread in the track model guidance has increased this cycle, with the UKMET and GFS now showing more of a westward motion and are slower to begin moving Hermine
northeastward.  The ECMWF has trended eastward and is much faster, taking Hermine south of Cape Cod in about 4 days, while the GFS and
UKMET are still centered offshore of New Jersey at that time. Given the spread, and the possibility of looping motions during the
interaction with the upper trough, confidence in the details of the track forecast remains quite low.

The 18z GFS seems to move it NE until tomorrow morning, at which point it starts to retrograde back. Northwestern fringes get into NYC.

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Pamela

Pamela

Posted
Posted
Just now, larrye said:

Yes, but the effects in NYC and points north could be very different from what's being experienced in NJ. I don't know if the storm is strengthening at this point or not ... perhaps that is responsible for the dropping pressures while the storm is moving E or ENE. 

The 5PM update mentioned that there is still significant model divergence:  


The spread in the track model guidance has increased this cycle, with the UKMET and GFS now showing more of a westward motion and are slower to begin moving Hermine
northeastward.  The ECMWF has trended eastward and is much faster, taking Hermine south of Cape Cod in about 4 days, while the GFS and
UKMET are still centered offshore of New Jersey at that time. Given the spread, and the possibility of looping motions during the
interaction with the upper trough, confidence in the details of the track forecast remains quite low.

The 18z GFS seems to move it NE until tomorrow morning, at which point it starts to retrograde back. Northwestern fringes get into NYC.

It does sometimes occur....a cyclone deepens so rapidly that even whilst retreating from some given location; the pressure at said location will continue to decline even though the actual distance between itself and the center of the storm is increasing.

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is further north and west

 

before everybody goes ape poo over  GFS.  It's significantly different, and more NW than euro.  So much so, that current satellite images borderline support it.

We just need to monitor satellite for the next few hours to see if it's the more right solution over Euro at this point. 

from a quick look, just the 6 and 12 hour forecasts... from satellite, it would have to take a quick hook north to support the points that GFS project.  The next 6 to 12 hours are crucial.

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nesussxwx

nesussxwx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

before everybody goes ape poo over  GFS.  It's significantly different, and more NW than euro.  So much so, that current satellite images borderline support it.

We just need to monitor satellite for the next few hours to see if it's the more right solution over Euro at this point. 

from a quick look, just the 6 and 12 hour forecasts... from satellite, it would have to take a quick hook north to support the points that GFS project.  The next 6 to 12 hours are crucial.

In simple terms it comes down to this,

 

If the the Upper Level Low. (ULL) develops early tomorrow morning, this storm is close to the coast.

If it develops later in the afternoon, then the storm is farther from the coast.

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

before everybody goes ape poo over  GFS.  It's significantly different, and more NW than euro.  So much so, that current satellite images borderline support it.

We just need to monitor satellite for the next few hours to see if it's the more right solution over Euro at this point. 

from a quick look, just the 6 and 12 hour forecasts... from satellite, it would have to take a quick hook north to support the points that GFS project.  The next 6 to 12 hours are crucial.

 

2 minutes ago, UnionWX said:

In simple terms it comes down to this,

 

If the the Upper Level Low. (ULL) develops early tomorrow morning, this storm is close to the coast.

If it develops later in the afternoon, then the storm is farther from the coast.

What is the team hoping for exactly. Storm 50-100 off the coast with significant coastal damage.

Ex - cars floating down the street in shore towns, 4 ft storm surge that cuts off the islands. Isolated wind damage with trees knocked down.

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Big Jims Videos

Big Jims Videos

Posted
Posted

There's a banter thread.  Please keep discussion on storm itself.  

Winds have slacked off a bit at the beach here in point since where they were this morning.  Will be at the inlet tonight for high tide and tomorrow working starting in Ortley, then Mantoloking, and ending up back at the inlet. 

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