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Zelocita Weather

Potential Hermine Impacts

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Just now, Hailstorm said:

Looks like the 18z tropical models have a more pronounced pivot back to the west as compared to 12z:

 

 

Those models must come out quick; since it only turned 18z 47 minutes ago.

 

Note the September 1 (two days ago) on your graphic...

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7 minutes ago, Pamela said:

Those models must come out quick; since it only turned 18z 47 minutes ago.

 

Note the September 1 (two days ago) on your graphic...

Says it initialized at 18z on the 3rd

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19 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Ryan Maue of Weatherbell via Twitter posted the storm is about to go nor'easter-like bombogenesis and Euro is not picking up on that in it's run, that is why it moved it east.

I remembered during last years model runs of the GFS and EURO with the January blizzard, there was a time when both models were chasing the convection too far east while the SR models showed a big hit. I wonder if the same thing is at play here.

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Maybe the Euro is onto something. It's still heading east but more models are showing a sharper hook to the NW over time. So perhaps it'll get as far east as 70-71W only to swing back around. That's a very strong block that's going to develop.

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6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

yup, looks like a nice weekend shaping up, glad i didn't cancel my bbq tomorrow 

We are on the beach. Sun breaking out every now and again. Wind really slacked off last hour. Empty beach- easy parking. Swell hasn't hit yet. Getting it in today while we can. 

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2 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

We are on the beach. Sun breaking out every now and again. Wind really slacked off last hour. Empty beach- easy parking. Swell hasn't hit yet. Getting it in today while we can. 

Here in Seaside Park, cops zipping up and down the beach on quads. Chasing you away if you get within 15 ft of the water. 

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5 minutes ago, BatRadar said:

Here in Seaside Park, cops zipping up and down the beach on quads. Chasing you away if you get within 15 ft of the water. 

What's the surf like? They are still letting people in the water here. I shouldn't say there is no surf, but it's not much yet 

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14 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

Euro's already wrong.  Satellite during the last hour shows a nice due NE jog. 

micro-analyzing I know...but you gotta with this kind of storm.  hour to hour.

tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floa

Are you sure about that? Also click this link and check on the forecast plots. It is still moving almost due east and already going to be well south of the 0z plot: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html

 

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7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Are you sure about that? Also click this link and check on the forecast plots. It is still moving almost due east and already going to be well south of the 0z plot: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html

 

 

The eye is large, so i was mostly going with the northern most position. Since satellite seems to trend it there.  But I know, and am surprised NHC did a forecast track of due NE for the next 12 hours or so.  Seems like Euro might of beat all (hurricane models) , atleast during the first 12 to 24 ? 

wow @ the euro

we need a big hook north for the 11am nhc track were to verify.  (for it's 12 hour forecast)

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39 minutes ago, BatRadar said:

Here in Seaside Park, cops zipping up and down the beach on quads. Chasing you away if you get within 15 ft of the water. 

Hah,  just happened to me on 24th. Tried to jump in and surf the left in IBSP

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A ship about 50 miles off the central jersey coast , is reporting 44 mph sustained...with 10 foot seas. 

goes to show, how spread the impacts will be. even with the storm hundreds of miles out.

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1 hour ago, tdp146 said:

What's the surf like? They are still letting people in the water here. I shouldn't say there is no surf, but it's not much yet 

Everything is normal here at jones beach. Patrons in the water. 

 

I dont think anything thing is set in stone yet. I'll never forget the severe coastal flooding during the perfect storm under sunny sky's and light winds 

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Does anybody have a good understanding of what synoptically is making the ECMWF take this more eastward while so many of the other models are not ... and how realistic the ECMWF's synoptic assessment is? I mean, I understand that at least for now in the near-term, it appears to be verifying. But is it possible that the other models will verify as far as "loop back" is concerned? 

It appears to truly be clearing both up here in Westchester and out on LI at Long Beach.

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