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Zelocita Weather

Potential Hermine Impacts

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12z 12k NAM keeps it so weak that the low level easterly winds guide it back to the delmarva. Yes, it's the NAM, but the 4k seems to have a more realistic solution getting it down to 985mb over the gulf stream, and slightly further east track. 

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9 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

When do you think okx pulls the trigger and upgrades to a ts warning or maybe even a hurricane warning if models continue to show Hermine strengthening to cat 1 status?

What model shows it becoming a hurricane lol

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11 minutes ago, mikemost said:

12z 12k NAM keeps it so weak that the low level easterly winds guide it back to the delmarva. Yes, it's the NAM, but the 4k seems to have a more realistic solution getting it down to 985mb over the gulf stream, and slightly further east track. 

973 low on the 4k nam

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Just now, hazwoper said:

What model shows it becoming a hurricane lol

it likely won't impact land with hurricane conditions but there is more than one model that gets it back to around a cat 1 sunday into monay.

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

Obviously some model has to. NHC has it becoming a post tropical hurricane.

Ok post tropical.  A little more clarification

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Looks like convection wrapping around south west side? If that makes it all the way around - which it looks like it wants to do - strengthening will be imminent.

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12 minutes ago, e46and2 said:

Based on pressure the latest 4K NAM would likely indicate a low end cat 1 hurricane.

74kt or 85 mph cat 1 doing a cyclonic loop east of Ocean City Md.

hires_uv10m_ne_40.png

 

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12 minutes ago, Method said:

New NHC forecast has it as a hurricane from Sunday until almost Wed.  Also looks like it shifted the track a bit more east as well.

 

Yes but it recognizes the bend again which we do not know at this time how close it will come to the coast and the NHC upped the % of TS force winds for NYC.

Latest advisory has winds upped to 65MPH... Looks like she really wants to get going. If it deepens more than forecast the coast can really be in big trouble!

 

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