The Plowsman Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Manasquan, NJ North Beach area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Anyone at the beach right now know this is not a bust. Surf is the biggest since sandy. Definite severe beach erosion occurring I'm out at the Hamptons, where waves are easily over 10 ft at times. Significant erosion already. I'm expecting the ocean to make it to the "last line of defense" dunes at tonight's high tide. Waves just south of fire island continue to spike, significant wave heights now approaching 12 ft. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=44025&meas=sght&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 HRRR just for laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 The euro now has two well known busts in the last two years in the NYC area. Hermine and the blizzard of 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Surprised they didn't drop the warnings yet! Wonder what they're waiting on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, seanick said: HRRR just for laughs. Idk that seems sorta accurate and not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 is it over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, marsplex said: is it over? Yes for many sigificant impact mainly just severe beach erosion and some surge. Winds nothing higher than a run of the mill nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 12 minutes ago, seanick said: HRRR just for laughs. Even Craig Allen mentioned it. It has the rgem and ggem in its corner so maybe we shouldn't totally discount it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Even Craig Allen mentioned it. It has the rgem and ggem in its corner so maybe we shouldn't totally discount it If Hermine can find a way to get back to 73-72W then we would at least feel some moderate to potentially strong winds. Unfortunately low confidence in that as the NHC has Hermine riding the 70W contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 The storm "appears" to be slowing its eastward motion right now. Appears. Key word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said: The storm "appears" to be slowing its eastward motion right now. Appears. Key word. Yes definitely the keyword! Looking at the regional radar... Rain is reappearing off the ocean coming west. I know grasping for straws but what the heck this is our hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Boston's thoughts. Still a lot of uncertainty. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 2 PM Update... Other than gusty northeast winds up to 35 mph over the Cape and Islands...pleasant weather being observed across southern New England with temps in the 70s to near 80 inland. Previous forecast captures this well so no major changes planned with this update. 12z model guidance ... models have trended farther north and west tracking Hermine...even the new 12z EC. 12z RGEM appears on the southwest edge of the envelope while the NAM is the farthestnorth. UKMET and GFS are clustered in the middle of the pack. 00z EPS and 12z GEFS continue to show large spread. Given the complex interaction between the baroclinic mid level trough over Hermine now and it`s low level tropical circulation along with proximity to the Gulf Stream all suggest high uncertainty in track and intensification of Hermine thru Wed. Thus best course of action is to follow a model blend which is very close to a UKMET/GFS solution. Will elaborate more after coordination with NHC around 4 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, bluewave said: This was a taste of old school 70's and 80's weather modeling and forecasting. You knew yesterday when Hermine took off further to the east and the sun came out later in the day that this would end up much further east than forecast. I can't even tell you how many times this happened especially with winter storms in those days .The old joke was you kew the snowstorm was going to go OTS when the moon was visible through a high thin overcast. There will always be a place for the great nowcaster since models will never reach a state of 100% perfection. Heavy snow warning and waking up to partly cloudy. ..60s were great..sometimes the forecast was partly cloudy and the next morning it would be snowing..I really miss not knowing..those were the days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Decent sized swells and breezy from the NE on the Long Beach Boardwalk. Water this AM washed about halfway up the beach. Cops are chasing swimmers out of the water-definitely nothing anyone should be swimming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Really wavy at the beach in Coney Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Found this amusing Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using TapatalkSouthern State?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, mophstymeo01 said: Southern State? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk That's the L.I.E....see the HOV lane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 That's the L.I.E....see the HOV lane. Good point. I was paying too much attention to the electronic sign. Saw the same message on the SSP just 30 minutes ago and had a flashback to the January 2015 blizzard debacle.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, mophstymeo01 said: Good point. I was paying too much attention to the electronic sign. Saw the same message on the SSP just 30 minutes ago and had a flashback to the January 2015 blizzard debacle. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Also the Green Sign says "Exit 58" "Old Nichols Rd" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Hermine feels a lot like a weaker version of Joaquin. Just switch the models around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 western flank of the system starting to cool. Not much wrapping into the center however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 18z NAM is significantly more west and south. lol. even it's initial position seems a bit too far east then it actually is. this might not be over, folks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 25 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: 18z NAM is significantly more west and south. lol. even it's initial position seems a bit too far east then it actually is. this might not be over, folks.. The NAM I'm sticking a fork in this one. The threat is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 18z NAM is significantly more west and south. lol. even it's initial position seems a bit too far east then it actually is. this might not be over, folks..No it may not be Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 24 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: 18z NAM is significantly more west and south. lol. even it's initial position seems a bit too far east then it actually is. this might not be over, folks.. Wouldn't surprise me to see this loop partway back...don't think it would be enough to dramatically change sensible weather for most. Seems on WV like there is a piece of vorticity diving through NC curious if that will do anything...fwiw I'm over this thing just curious to see if we see a faint ghost of the type of interaction that we expected three days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 yeah, it's the NAM . and the NAM will be the nam. But... every little bit of 50 miles counts at this point. at 18z it initialized at : and current Sat at that time - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 18z RGEM has it just sitting and spinning and raining itself out...well west of The Benchmark...roughly due south of Montauk and due east of Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 anybody else see a backstep in the last few frames.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Seems like its starting its more northward movement now as the cloud deck is also moving northwest also,the tugging begins.some convection is also trying to rap around the coc so im still not convinced of east and out solution just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.