e46and2 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 still looks like a severe scenario to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Wide swing right on Euro focuses best wind gusts out in Suffolk and Southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, yoda said: You sure you have the right Euro run? Bad info on Twitter. It wasn't the Euro showing that. I apologize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Pamela said: 12z Canadien of course a major rain event Well, I'm not a met, but I can't remember the last time the Canadian was used as a reliable model. Wouldn't you normally factor it in together with other models like the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF (and in the short range, models like the HRRR) to come up with an extrapolated forecast. You normally don't just take an outlier verbatim, right (unless there is a very good meteorological reason for it)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, snowman19 said: Bad info on Twitter. It wasn't the Euro showing that. I apologize Just now, snowman19 said: Bad info on Twitter. It wasn't the Euro showing that. I apologize I should have known better than to listen to a poster on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 so much for the euro being consistent-bit changes there....maybe b/c of the delay it doesn't get so far west and then cliimo takes over and out it goes, if that's the case, a minor event for most in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 STOP POSTING BS. I dont care where you read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Bad info on Twitter. It wasn't the Euro showing that. I apologizeGuessing u thought HMs Canadian map of Hermine sitting over ocmd was euro image. I though so at first tooSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, larrye said: Well, I'm not a met, but I can't remember the last time the Canadian was used as a reliable model. every winter storm. no, you clearly aren't a met. this is not to say i agree with the CMC solution, but it is not a garbage model by any means. Far better than the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 guys, how baffling is this all-holy , reliable , euro run? It's practically the furthest east solution now at 24 hours. Even the official NHC forecast is for a NE track the next 24 hours....Euro is due East for the first 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, larrye said: Well, I'm not a met, but I can't remember the last time the Canadian was used as a reliable model. Wouldn't you normally factor it in together with other models like the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF (and in the short range, models like the HRRR) to come up with an extrapolated forecast. You normally don't just take an outlier verbatim, right (unless there is a very good meteorological reason for it)? Its always hard to say with these tropical affairs. But when you have an anticyclone perched over the Canadien Maritimes rather than over Quebec...practically forcing it to edge NNW rather than the typical recurving path as it would ordinarily follow per The Bermuda High...all bets are off in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I just noticed from the NHC graphic I posted above...tropical depression hermine? is that a mistake? 70 mph sustained winds...one of them is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, mranger48 said: Guessing u thought HMs Canadian map of Hermine sitting over ocmd was euro image. I though so at first too Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It wasn't HM's post. Another person posted that image and said it was the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, e46and2 said: every winter storm. no, you clearly aren't a met. this is not to say i agree with the CMC solution, but it is not a garbage model by any means. Far better than the NAM... Never said it was a garbage model. Used the word "reliable". You took my words out of context. I stated that it was a model that is normally used together with other models to come up with a solution and that I can't recall the last time it alone had a solution that verified while other models differed with it to any degree of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Pamela said: Its always hard to say with these tropical affairs. But when you have an anticyclone perched over the Canadien Maritimes rather than over Quebec...practically forcing it to edge NNW rather than the typical recurving path as it would ordinarily follow per The Bermuda High...all bets are off in my book. Another thing to keep in mind with these tropical systems is that their impacts are always going to be felt far more strongly at the immediate coast than say 50 miles inland. The '38 Hurricane that destroyed LI and Rhode Island was barely felt in NYC & Jersey...and the landfall was in central Suffolk County near Patchogue...a landfalling Category 3. Short distances can yield major variations in sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 We probably won't know crap until tomorrow. There are several possibilities and we have to see how it interacts with the trough, the blocking ridge, and even with it hanging near the warm gulf stream. All I know is that coastal flooding and major erosion for beaches is likely. Anything else is an unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I'll be interested to see the EPS low location spread for 48 hours. Both hurricane models have the storm 100-200 miles closer than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Pamela said: Its always hard to say with these tropical affairs. But when you have an anticyclone perched over the Canadien Maritimes rather than over Quebec...practically forcing it to edge NNW rather than the typical recurving path as it would ordinarily follow per The Bermuda High...all bets are off in my book. So you're thinking is that the blocking high is throwing many of the models. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, larrye said: So you're thinking is that the blocking high is throwing many of the models. OK. At this point all that can be done is watch the factors gather and wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I still can't get over this euro run.. could we get a Met to chime in, to say it's been thrown out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Unless you actually have access to the Euro, please don't post as if you know what it says. The information on the previous page could not be further from the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Well it is clearly moving due east as per the NHC Advisory and Satellite imagery. How long this motion occurs is hard to tell but for now it is still booking it pretty good. There is no doubt forecast confidence is going to be below average throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: I still can't get over this euro run.. could we get a Met to chime in, to say it's been thrown out. Maybe you need to post less and take a little break. Don't get emotionally involved. Wait for the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 true..true. thanks Eyewall. I just can't see this due eastward track for the first 24. baffling.. time to meditate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Down in ocean city, md. Winds still gusty but rain stopped 2 hours ago and sun has been trying to poke through at times Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 The UKMET has the same solution further east like the Euro before looping back west offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Ryan Maue of Weatherbell via Twitter posted the storm is about to go nor'easter-like bombogenesis and Euro is not picking up on that in it's run, that is why it moved it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Long Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Now the ECMWF was the model that handled the Sandy storm best; though that was in the autumn of 2012 and prior to the "upgrade"...which I think was really little more than subtraction by addition...as evinced by its complete mishandling of the LI only blizzard of January 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Looks like the 18z tropical models have a more pronounced pivot back to the west as compared to 12z: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_18z.png Can't put the image in this post because it displays an old version..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.