JC-CT Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, blizzard24 said: euro is more nw on the 12zrun than 0z run closer to or just east Atlantic city coast before it was east of delaware coast For that say go with models all time think again models are moving it around and more nw on the 12zrun than 00z run . number one hurricanes will do what they want not what weather computer models say and we dont know if the high is that strong at that time frame and could less strong allow different out come and more effect on sne than some say . TO MANY JUST GOING WITH WEATHER MODELS ON TOTALLY AREA OF STALLING IT IN THAT AREA. I wont and models have been moving it around to more nw and would be surprise if stalls more northward or tracks closer to sne area . hurricanes will do what they want to do . Sounds like you think it will do what you want it to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Nice. Real nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Seriously though blizzy...there is one possible outcome for anything meteorologically. There's a lot of chaos involved and we're far from perfect with modeling. It's science though and the laws of physics dictate what the cane will do...not a wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 new link https://www.windyty.com/?2016-09-04-06,37.074,-76.494,6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: new link https://www.windyty.com/?2016-09-04-06,37.074,-76.494,6 Lollis to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 33 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Sounds like you think it will do what you want it to do. Growing up in the 1960's it was common knowledge that Hurricanes do what they want. I was taught that many times they could not make up there minds, were fickle creatures of nature and that is why they only had female names back then. Computer models are great for forecasting except for hurricanes. Each one has a unique personality. So I am not going to look at atmospheric steering currents and placements of higher or lower pressure or any such nonsense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2016 Author Share Posted September 2, 2016 19 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Growing up in the 1960's it was common knowledge that Hurricanes do what they want. I was taught that many times they could not make up there minds, were fickle creatures of nature and that is why they only had female names back then. Computer models are great for forecasting except for hurricanes. Each one has a unique personality. So I am not going to look at atmospheric steering currents and placements of higher or lower pressure or any such nonsense! not to jump in the middle - not sure how much of this is tongue in cheek - but, no... Hurricanes don't do what they want, unless it's spin you are talking about. the popular idioms and sayings of common societal vernacular do not always connect with actual science on matters. Hermine is not moving astride the Atlantic Seacoast at the moment because it 'wants to' do anything. it's directed that way by steering fields associated with a subtle weakness in the ridge, and that course it is presently on represents the path of least resistance. in fact, THAT is what hurricanes do, 100% of the time - they respond to the paths of least resistance in the atmosphere. as far as Hurricanes and computer modeling seemingly parting company too - that's an artifact of improper physical sampling and/or unknown physical properties .. as yet to be discovered. Resolve uncertainties in both and the skill will improve markedly. in fact, it already has. even since Katrina there's been an up-tick in accuracy for development profiling and track guidance as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: not to jump in the middle - not sure how much of this is tongue in cheek - but, no... I took it as 200-proof snark. Did not lol but it was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2016 Author Share Posted September 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, tamarack said: I took it as 200-proof snark. Did not lol but it was close. you know what funny about this storm... it's going to sit and spin and upwell all the warm waters out of that area, such that the mean coastal storm track gets to be too far off shore to ever give us snow storms. ah ha ha-ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you know what funny about this storm... it's going to sit and spin and upwell all the warm waters out of that area, such that the mean coastal storm track gets to be too far off shore to ever give us snow storms. ah ha ha-ha ha Nearly 7 years ago Cool Spruce "predicted" (in like manner as above) that the New Year's retro-bomb would ruin winter for our area. He was exactly right. May history NOT repeat itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2016 Author Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: Nearly 7 years ago Cool Spruce "predicted" (in like manner as above) that the New Year's retro-bomb would ruin winter for our area. He was exactly right. May history NOT repeat itself. heh, funny - probably coincidental though - not sure i see how a single oddly behaving event would dictate 3.5 months of ensuing nightmare ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: not to jump in the middle - not sure how much of this is tongue in cheek - but, no... Hurricanes don't do what they want, unless it's spin you are talking about. the popular idioms and sayings of common societal vernacular do not always connect with actual science on matters. Hermine is not moving astride the Atlantic Seacoast at the moment because it 'wants to' do anything. it's directed that way by steering fields associated with a subtle weakness in the ridge, and that course it is presently on represents the path of least resistance. in fact, THAT is what hurricanes do, 100% of the time - they respond to the paths of least resistance in the atmosphere. as far as Hurricanes and computer modeling seemingly parting company too - that's an artifact of improper physical sampling and/or unknown physical properties .. as yet to be discovered. Resolve uncertainties in both and the skill will improve markedly. in fact, it already has. even since Katrina there's been an up-tick in accuracy for development profiling and track guidance as well... Tip, 100% tongue in cheek. Just having fun. Probably shouldn't have mucked up the thread. Of course I agree 100% with you! I will say that way back when, when I was a kid I think many people did believe somehow they did have minds of their own, just ignorance of the science back then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The ENS are quite alarming for strong winds at least to Mass Pike. Big jump NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: you know what funny about this storm... it's going to sit and spin and upwell all the warm waters out of that area, such that the mean coastal storm track gets to be too far off shore to ever give us snow storms. ah ha ha-ha ha Sounds like the last 3 winter haha. Will be interesting to see what days of churning in the Atlantic do for the SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The ENS are quite alarming for strong winds at least to Mass Pike. Big jump NW Maybe 60mph now inland? What do the ENS have for wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: not to jump in the middle - not sure how much of this is tongue in cheek - but, no... Hurricanes don't do what they want, unless it's spin you are talking about. the popular idioms and sayings of common societal vernacular do not always connect with actual science on matters. Hermine is not moving astride the Atlantic Seacoast at the moment because it 'wants to' do anything. it's directed that way by steering fields associated with a subtle weakness in the ridge, and that course it is presently on represents the path of least resistance. in fact, THAT is what hurricanes do, 100% of the time - they respond to the paths of least resistance in the atmosphere. as far as Hurricanes and computer modeling seemingly parting company too - that's an artifact of improper physical sampling and/or unknown physical properties .. as yet to be discovered. Resolve uncertainties in both and the skill will improve markedly. in fact, it already has. even since Katrina there's been an up-tick in accuracy for development profiling and track guidance as well... This is where the misconception that they "do as they want" comes from....its born entirely of out inability to forecast them. Still seems NBD up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The ENS are quite alarming for strong winds at least to Mass Pike. Big jump NW Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 And Kevin thought it was crazy to even think this was a possible scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Meh. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Hermine could remain tropical throughout the forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 you know what funny about this storm... it's going to sit and spin and upwell all the warm waters out of that area, such that the mean coastal storm track gets to be too far off shore to ever give us snow storms. ah ha ha-ha haI thought storm paths were dictated by weaknesses in atmospheric ridges...now it's SST? Meh. Aaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The ENS are quite alarming for strong winds at least to Mass Pike. Big jump NW Nah. Breezy nor'easter. No big deal. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 GFS is definitely west down towards Jersey. What I don't understand is why it's rain shield is not further west. Usually up at these latitudes the heavy rain can be well west of the center but not for Hermine. Maybe its so much dry high pressure around the NW side its keeping the precip from spreading more west. This maybe meh for us but the Jersey shore is going to have so many tide cycles with east winds. Good that astronomical tides are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 may be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2016 Author Share Posted September 2, 2016 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is where the misconception that they "do as they want" comes from....its born entirely of out inability to forecast them. Still seems NBD up this way. yeah ... pretty much agreed... unless, " improper physical sampling and/or unknown physical properties " somehow kick in and do something poorly forecast - i was hoping to get into some quasi-stationary PRE and throw a couple inches of rain into the deficit efforts but, in the spirit of 'doing what they want' this one appears hell bent on not only failing to do so, ...rubbing it in by lingering/taunting the issue. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 If you are south of the Pike..it does appear things are looking wilder by the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Let's take some down Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 45m45 minutes ago Monday in NewEng likely to bring AM thru early afternoon rain squalls that may focus localized gusts to 50+ mph for scattered damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 It's pretty wild how long some of the models keep it stationary. The GFS is about 6z Sun to 6z Fri. Not boring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 It's no big deal outside of cape cod and south coast of SNE. Kevin is delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's pretty wild how long some of the models keep it stationary. The GFS is about 6z Sun to 6z Fri. Not boring? Definitely not boring. Fascinating. How often do we see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.