ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: They sure don't make September GoM systems like they used to. It's getting prettier, but in a mid-latitude springtime sort of way. GoM has been pretty much a wasteland for good hurricanes since 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Sounds like some were expecting andrew............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Yeah, NJ takes it on the chin on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Euro is much weaker too with the SLP by about 20mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Euro is very little impact SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 We have many model runs to go through wont stay same area for the track or where models say it will stall . Number two cmc is more up the coast for it turn west too. like sandy they change many times until the hours before storm hit. IM Staying with my forecast further up the coast before it stalls and if stalls at all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12z GFS had it at 999 mb at 18z, but it's already down to 989 mb and probably lower now. Initialization errors become bigger errors with time. Update: Now hurricane status, 988 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The GFS never initializes hurricanes with the correct mb. It still does ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Hermine now a Cat 1 cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Perhaps some RI ongoing prior to landfall? Nice ring of convection around the eye now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 My gut is minimal impact here with a solution on the southern edge of GEFS... Maybe closer to 18z GFS but man it's close to a nasty storm for south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Roosta in for a rough night. Hunker down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2016 Author Share Posted September 1, 2016 18 minutes ago, CT Rain said: My gut is minimal impact here with a solution on the southern edge of GEFS... Maybe closer to 18z GFS but man it's close to a nasty storm for south coast. seems either way the south coast is in for one helluva surf show... just will come down to whether it's partially obscured by misty frothy rain and stinging sand, or more of a light wind under cirrus... this also should be a multiple tide cycle thing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Roosta in for a rough night. Hunker down. I'm all tied-up, I mean everything's tied down. This is going through RI, upping the effect a bit. Could be fooled because nothing is happening now, Give it an hour or two. What a beautiful Satellite animation showing the eye getting closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Eye much better defined past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Tor warning right near Roosta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Did have a few spin-ups in my County and just S. Meh, if it wasn't for that feeder I'd be asking myself "they call this a storm" people must be wimps for hyping this...being inland and 150 miles from eventual landfall might have something to do with it. Just didn't have enough time time to contract and spread out the feeders, No change a low end CAT1. The orientation and movement of a second feeder band might not even get this far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 What steering currents on the progs make it take a right turn near the benchmark after moving slowly northward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2016 Author Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: What steering currents on the progs make it take a right turn near the benchmark after moving slowly northward? It's the anti "I want it to happen" variable altering the physical equations at least excuse imaginable in the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: What steering currents on the progs make it take a right turn near the benchmark after moving slowly northward? Take a look at the the modelled HGTS. Basically a block. Nice little hybrid system complete with coastal ruination, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 39 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: What steering currents on the progs make it take a right turn near the benchmark after moving slowly northward? Just assume a right hook under sne....you'll hit like 98-100 times. Not very interested in this....gonna pull an Edouard...yawn. Back to your regularly scheduled sea ice vigil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 LOL at the 00z GFS. It still has the circulation of the storm just south of the Cape next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: LOL at the 00z GFS. It still has the circulation of the storm just south of the Cape next Friday. 0Z Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: LOL at the 00z GFS. It still has the circulation of the storm just south of the Cape next Friday. Euro does the same east of SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Tropical Storm Watch issued for CT shoreline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 FWIW - Tropical storm watches up for Long Island and coastal CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Looking at the new track from the NHC - I have a question. Their track shows a post-tropical hurricane. Is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 48 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said: FWIW - Tropical storm watches up for Long Island and coastal CT. For the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 No report from Roosta, he is probably w/o electricity. Well over a 100k w/o power is impressive since the population in the ph is more sparse than the big cities further S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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