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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion


lookingnorth

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All of the models need work on their QPF algorithms. In OK they are consistently at least 50% too aggressive on amounts and the local mets have to constantly bring them down. This has been a consistent pattern for years. 

Three days ago confidence was high on the models of QPF's of 3-5 inches across most of OK.

My dad always asks if we will really get what the forecast says. I usually undercut to him by 50-60% and am usually still off by 20%.

 

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29 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

Tulsa extended the ice storm warning south one county.

Probably won't materialize.  I'm in what was the projected band of heavier ice accumulations noted above and we've got a glaze of .1 to .15 on elevated surfaces, sidewalks, driveway, streets, back porch, all just went.  No ice.

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2 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Looking for 1/2-1" of ice here in SC KS tonight into Sunday afternoon. Ice, with thunder and lightning, will start falling within the next 2 hours here. Local NWS doesn't seem as bullish on modification as previously. 

That wave pushing out W OK and TX panhandle has some lightning with it. Hope everything turns out well for you all. 

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Hereford, Texas had thunder-unknown precpitation and thundersnow recently. Thunder-unknown precipitation sounds really weird. I wonder if Jim Cantore is there to see the thundersnow.

KHHF 141815Z AUTO 05004KT 1 1/4SM -VCTSSN OVC009 M01/M01 A3047 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0007 T10061015
KHHF 141755Z AUTO 05004KT 1/2SM -TSSN BKN010 OVC014 M01/M02 A3043 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0033 60035 T10061016 11005 21011
KHHF 141735Z AUTO 04003KT 5SM TSUP OVC014 M01/M02 A3045 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0009 T10071020
KHHF 141715Z AUTO 04006KT 5SM VCTSUP OVC014 M01/M02 A3043 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0008 T10081023
KHHF 141655Z AUTO 04003KT 7SM TSUP BKN014 M01/M03 A3046 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S THRU NW P0002 T10101026

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8 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Hereford, Texas had thunder-unknown precpitation and thundersnow recently. Thunder-unknown precipitation sounds really weird. I wonder if Jim Cantore is there to see the thundersnow.

KHHF 141815Z AUTO 05004KT 1 1/4SM -VCTSSN OVC009 M01/M01 A3047 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0007 T10061015
KHHF 141755Z AUTO 05004KT 1/2SM -TSSN BKN010 OVC014 M01/M02 A3043 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0033 60035 T10061016 11005 21011
KHHF 141735Z AUTO 04003KT 5SM TSUP OVC014 M01/M02 A3045 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0009 T10071020
KHHF 141715Z AUTO 04006KT 5SM VCTSUP OVC014 M01/M02 A3043 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0008 T10081023
KHHF 141655Z AUTO 04003KT 7SM TSUP BKN014 M01/M03 A3046 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S THRU NW P0002 T10101026

 

Thank God for human weather observers.... 

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1 hour ago, rockchalk83 said:

Of note, the 12z Euro is colder, keeping the surface freezing line in SE KS through 00z Monday, then barely trickles it northwest of Wichita by 00z Monday, right as another heavy wave of precip starts. That maybe the saving grace, but it is going to be SOOO close. 

I know it's just outside the range of this thread but it's basically the only spot in this forum talking about the event. Local met (Omaha area) mentioned that too, less warmth and more ice here on that run. I'm more concerned up here because we haven't had any really "warm" days this month (warmest in the last 7 days was 36, this month is just 39) so the roads are likely going to ice over much quicker than it's taking further south in Kansas/Oklahoma once it starts here. If you or someone else doesn't mind, how is it looking for Omaha with the 12z Euro?

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17 minutes ago, Jonbo said:

I know it's just outside the range of this thread but it's basically the only spot in this forum talking about the event. Local met (Omaha area) mentioned that too, less warmth and more ice here on that run. I'm more concerned up here because we haven't had any really "warm" days this month (warmest in the last 7 days was 36, this month is just 39) so the roads are likely going to ice over much quicker than it's taking further south in Kansas/Oklahoma once it starts here. If you or someone else doesn't mind, how is it looking for Omaha with the 12z Euro?

About 0.9" of precip. Temps will be hovering around freezing around Monday afternoon though. 

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57 minutes ago, JoMo said:

About 0.9" of precip. Temps will be hovering around freezing around Monday afternoon though. 

Thank you. Yeah I've seen that too about the potential for normal rain Monday afternoon but the NWS here seems to be uncertain about whether it will happen also. edit: Ice Storm Warning now up to my area. Interesting days ahead.

Ice Storm 2017.png

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The 18z NAM is out and it now has .61 for Kansas City. It has increased each run and now is consistent with the 12z GFS which shows .62 and the 12z GEM which shows .53".  I frankly do not see how this verifies because of the lack of precip showing up on radar. By the time the heavier precip arrives at some point tomorrow afternoon the temps should be slightly above freezing. The only way this verifies is if the temps remain below freezing for most of the day tomorrow. 

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Temps in OK were 1-3 degrees F under what was modeled a few days ago in some places.. so dont be surprised if it is cooler and you do indeed get more ice.

4 minutes ago, KC metro said:

The 18z NAM is out and it now has .61 for Kansas City. It has increased each run and now is consistent with the 12z GFS which shows .62 and the 12z GEM which shows .53".  I frankly do not see how this verifies because of the lack of precip showing up on radar. By the time the heavier precip arrives at some point tomorrow afternoon the temps should be slightly above freezing. The only way this verifies is if the temps remain below freezing for most of the day tomorrow. 

 

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54 minutes ago, Spot said:

Temps in OK were 1-3 degrees F under what was modeled a few days ago in some places.. so dont be surprised if it is cooler and you do indeed get more ice.

 

Yep, way colder than predicted so far throughout this entire event. Not cold enough for ice here but the temps were way off. On a side note, its crazy here just drizzly at my home but go 2 exits north on highway 49 from here for about 8 exits and its pouring down rain, get out of that zone and nothing again lol.

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Hmmmm.  We are still sitting at 31 F (North side of OKC) and, 36 hours after it was supposed to, we may finally have some steady rain on the horizon.  It appears too warm to have any substantive negative impact on roads, but, if temps hold, I could see trees getting it pretty good this evening.  

And, for those further north, be advised that temperatures have consistently resisted rising as fast as predicted down this way.  Last night, they were predicting us going above freezing early in the am.  This morning, they changed that to noon.  Now, they are predicting 6 pm, but I don't think we'll get there either.  

EDIT:  NWS is now calling for freezing temps to hang tough at the northwestern third of Oklahoma County (where OKC is) through 6 am tomorrow before rapidly retreating thereafter.  

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1 hour ago, NJ_Ken said:

Hmmmm.  We are still sitting at 31 F (North side of OKC) and, 36 hours after it was supposed to, we may finally have some steady rain on the horizon.  It appears too warm to have any substantive negative impact on roads, but, if temps hold, I could see trees getting it pretty good this evening.  

And, for those further north, be advised that temperatures have consistently resisted rising as fast as predicted down this way.  Last night, they were predicting us going above freezing early in the am.  This morning, they changed that to noon.  Now, they are predicting 6 pm, but I don't think we'll get there either.  

EDIT:  NWS is now calling for freezing temps to hang tough at the northwestern third of Oklahoma County (where OKC is) through 6 am tomorrow before rapidly retreating thereafter.  

Temps have actually dropped a few degree the past couple hours on the mesonet, Norman back below freezing and OKC back down to 30 after briefly up to 31. 

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