packbacker Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Yeah the medium range does offer some cooldowns below normal from time to time. Euro weeklies today still aren't very clear on what happens after the first week of Dec. It has a very 'flat' look, which either means that it's going to be a flat zonal type of flow, or there's a large variety of solutions/timing differences with the individual ensemble members. When was the last winter that every seasonal was warm...11/12 I would guess. Although, haven't seen or heard about the latest Euro. UK should be out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 The Euro parallel weeklies finally updated. They give a better idea of the look. Looks stormy over the northwestern US and the Mountains, there's a finger of colder than normal temps extending from around Alaska to east of the Rockies into SW MO, including much of OK, all of KS for much of Dec. A -PNA type of look except a bit farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 8 hours ago, JoMo said: The Euro parallel weeklies finally updated. They give a better idea of the look. Looks stormy over the northwestern US and the Mountains, there's a finger of colder than normal temps extending from around Alaska to east of the Rockies into SW MO, including much of OK, all of KS for much of Dec. A -PNA type of look except a bit farther east. Sounds like either a great winter or an icy winter. Not sure which. Will be a 'fine line' situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Heard the new Euro seasonal is ugly... and looks a lot like the CanSIPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 So here we go with another winter that never happens?! I didn't think we could ever be worse than last winter, but.. man this sucks, are good winters a thing of the past? I'm already down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 8 hours ago, JoMo said: Heard the new Euro seasonal is ugly... and looks a lot like the CanSIPS. The Euro parallel seems to disagree. Has a storm a a week cutting just to the right of the OK/AR border throughout December with cold diving in to the west. I love it honestly. Looks like 2010. Which euro to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 42 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: So here we go with another winter that never happens?! I didn't think we could ever be worse than last winter, but.. man this sucks, are good winters a thing of the past? I'm already down. The seasonal runs are almost all warm. That doesn't mean winter will necessarily suck like last year though. There's a couple things that worry me. On the weeklies, a lot of storm systems pass to our northwest, and there's an obvious 'northern stream' look, with the storms passing to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: The Euro parallel seems to disagree. Has a storm a a week cutting just to the right of the OK/AR border throughout December with cold diving in to the west. I love it honestly. Looks like 2010. Which euro to believe? You mean the parallel weeklies? The parallel weeklies did look better than the regular weeklies yesterday. There was ridging out by the Aleutians which resulted in downstream troughing over the western US with a -PNA look. This resulted in colder air being able to build up and spill down to the east of the Rockies. The regular Euro weeklies had troughing/low heights out by the Aleutians/Alaska which resulted in a somewhat 'flat' look across the US as it directed Pacific air into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 34 minutes ago, JoMo said: The seasonal runs are almost all warm. That doesn't mean winter will necessarily suck like last year though. There's a couple things that worry me. On the weeklies, a lot of storm systems pass to our northwest, and there's an obvious 'northern stream' look, with the storms passing to our north. Yes and I remember well in dominant northern stream winters that stream squashing everything trying to come across here. Cold, dry frontal passages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 Neither the old or parallel Euro weeklies looks too exciting as far as sustained cold through much of Dec. Storm systems eventually roll across the US but pesky storminess around the Aleutians persists. Probably going to be an above normal Dec temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 Jeesh starting to sound like last season all over again lol, I am ready as it is to move way further north again. Just too warm for my blood here, Its a beautiful state but just too warm for me. I'll try to hold off being too much of a downer right now, it's still fairly early. But come december, if I am still cutting grass I will be ready to hang in the towel again lol. Anyone else still cutting grass? I am soooooo done with that now too haha! Man at least let it be cold for xmas, last year I felt like I was in florida lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 19 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: Jeesh starting to sound like last season all over again lol, I am ready as it is to move way further north again. Just too warm for my blood here, Its a beautiful state but just too warm for me. I'll try to hold off being too much of a downer right now, it's still fairly early. But come december, if I am still cutting grass I will be ready to hang in the towel again lol. Anyone else still cutting grass? I am soooooo done with that now too haha! Man at least let it be cold for xmas, last year I felt like I was in florida lol. Yah man I'm mowing grass tomorrow, hopefully last time. This is pathetic. I think farmer's almanac has quiet and mild for us this yr lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 6 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yah man I'm mowing grass tomorrow, hopefully last time. This is pathetic. I think farmer's almanac has quiet and mild for us this yr lol. Tell me about it! We need a good freeze to put the brakes on this grass lol. Funny you mention that, I was reading it earlier when I was out and about....said the same thing. Very warm and looks to be a well below average snowfall season again!!! If this happens I am going to be shocked, so much for my thinking that usually a hot summer=a snowy/icy cold winter haha. Time will tell I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Looking to head more into a normal November seasonal progression through the next 10-15 days. I'm not panicked about winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Here's something that will disappear in next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 22 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yah man I'm mowing grass tomorrow, hopefully last time. This is pathetic. I think farmer's almanac has quiet and mild for us this yr lol. Freeze warning down that way for tonight? Somehow we've avoided the frost/freeze in Joplin so far... oddly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 13 minutes ago, JoMo said: Freeze warning down that way for tonight? Somehow we've avoided the frost/freeze in Joplin so far... oddly. Yea JoMo I just checked, low of 29 predicted!!! Good this is more like november, actually that will be a tad cold if anything but hey I am down with it lol. End of next week looks nice and chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 39 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Yea JoMo I just checked, low of 29 predicted!!! Good this is more like november, actually that will be a tad cold if anything but hey I am down with it lol. End of next week looks nice and chilly. Yeah, big system passing off to our NW next week. Unfortunately, cold doesn't look to stick around long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 39 minutes ago, JoMo said: Yeah, big system passing off to our NW next week. Unfortunately, cold doesn't look to stick around long. Baby steps. Gotta start somewhere. Should best Fayetteville's latest freeze by 1 day. Definitely not as bad as it was looking a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 The temps so far look like 1998/1999. That winter was pretty mild except at the end of Dec into early Jan. New JMA is out.....And it's not good. Stormy over western Canada Dec-Feb and that's where the cold stays this winter. Feb looks really warm for us. Here's hoping all the seasonals are wrong.... otherwise it's going to be a mild, boring winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 8 hours ago, JoMo said: The temps so far look like 1998/1999. That winter was pretty mild except at the end of Dec into early Jan. New JMA is out.....And it's not good. Stormy over western Canada Dec-Feb and that's where the cold stays this winter. Feb looks really warm for us. Here's hoping all the seasonals are wrong.... otherwise it's going to be a mild, boring winter. They were totally wrong in 2013-14 and they can be wrong again. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 From about Day 10+, Euro ensembles look like an El Nino pattern. Hope tomorrows weeklies change it up in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 UKMET continues the theme of warm. However, it should be noted that that Asia is mostly glacier at this point so the models pointing to warmer than normal conditions there is very highly suspect. The 500 MB map doesn't really line up with what you'd expect on the temp map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 30 minutes ago, JoMo said: UKMET continues the theme of warm. However, it should be noted that that Asia is mostly glacier at this point so the models pointing to warmer than normal conditions there is very highly suspect. The 500 MB map doesn't really line up with what you'd expect on the temp map. Siberia is pretty laugh worthy. I'd toss it out. Models trending colder in the latter periods of the upcoming 15 days. Going to be a lot more Novembery out after Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Weeklies (both sets) don't look real real horrible. Looks better towards mid and late December. The parallel weeklies want to back storminess to the west of Alaska again towards Mid-Dec which results in a colder US with storms undercutting a -AO/-EPO kind of look. Operational isn't excited about that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Weeklies (both sets) don't look real real horrible. Looks better towards mid and late December. The parallel weeklies want to back storminess to the west of Alaska again towards Mid-Dec which results in a colder US with storms undercutting a -AO/-EPO kind of look. Operational isn't excited about that idea. Doug Heady said it well in his latest heady pattern video. Our cold this winter, as usual, rides on a -AO. Projections are for it to go negative soon and hopefully park that way for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 48 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Doug Heady said it well in his latest heady pattern video. Our cold this winter, as usual, rides on a -AO. Projections are for it to go negative soon and hopefully park that way for awhile. The GFS Ensembles have actually been heading towards a better look sooner. This looks pretty good. All the blocking over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Two straight runs with snow in Columbia on the gfs. I have very little faith that will happen, but it's fun to have something to look at. The snow is showing up 2 weeks from now but that is when Doug heady said we could see our first taste of winter. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 JAMSTEC updated and surprise, it's warm. And wet for our area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: JAMSTEC updated and surprise, it's warm. It still thinks Siberia is gonna be warmer than normal? I remember when it thought Siberia was gonna torch back in August. Just saying that it's temperature map may be a bit warmer than reality though the precip map looks normal for a Nina. Here was its SON output from August. We all know how that went lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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