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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion


lookingnorth

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6 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Yah I hear ya, at least we're getting wet again.   That's my positive take.   I think our cold February may be in jeopardy, though.

Looked that way for a bit and the weeklies were pretty meh.... but now I'm not so sure. Still can't really buy any -AO. Pretty much nothing but +AO all winter, and that doesn't work for cold in a -PNA. 

ao.sprd2.gif

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22 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

JoMo beings you understand this stuff really good, let me ask you this. Has any of the data this season been really correct that seemed like when it will get cold, it was correct and it did in fact get cold? Hope that makes sense lol

Yeah in general 1-2 week intervals in the modeling. When it was supposed to get cold, it got cold. Although, there was an epic battle in the Euro ensembles where it was basically 50/50 much of the winter. The individual storm systems are more uncertain though. 

The weeklies, for instance, show the general longwave pattern in the longer range. It's not always correct, because long range modeling isn't going to be perfect, but you can see the general expected pattern. However, I can't tell you how many times they showed a -AO or -NAO 2-3 weeks out that failed to materialize though. It was a common theme. 

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Well with this ridge that's about to move in, looks like another boring week/ week and a half... perhaps things get interesting in early/mid February, but probably not. Looks like another boring winter down the pipes. Maybe severe season will finally get cranking again. 

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Nice and cold today but that will be flushed down the toilet again next week with more 50/60's it appears lol. I'm ready for spring, hate to say it but forget this winter again. Maybe next year guys lol. Something could happen in Feb. but Im not holding my breath at this point, I am ready to move on past another horrible winter season! It's worst than last year it feels like haha.

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21 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

We're rapidly running out of opportunities down here. We could maybe get something in the first half of February but beyond that, I'd stick a fork in this one.

Agree.  RIP winter 16-17.  Let's just hurry and get spring and summer here now.

Never thought I'd see back to back snowless winters but it's happening. 

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1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Agree.  RIP winter 16-17.  Let's just hurry and get spring and summer here now.

Never thought I'd see back to back snowless winters but it's happening. 

Hopefully we can at least get a long cool spring and a short summer this year. I just hate being hot.

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Yeah, I'm tossing in the towel as well, things not looking good on the weeklies and even the ensembles are changing. Still a chance for some snow at some point until Spring arrives but it's just not happening this year. Maybe a weak to moderate Nino next winter. 

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2 hours ago, JoMo said:

Yeah, I'm tossing in the towel as well, things not looking good on the weeklies and even the ensembles are changing. Still a chance for some snow at some point until Spring arrives but it's just not happening this year. Maybe a weak to moderate Nino next winter. 

Maybe the Nino will at least help keep my cooler summer idea. Our average snowfall from '09-15 was pretty awesome so I should've expected a couple of crap winters in a row I guess. Even as unscientific as that is. These last 2 have had a mid-2000s or late 90s feel to them. Just crap after crap. Lol.

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12z GFS shows some light snow possible Saturday night/Sunday morning mainly over northern and NE MO where 1-2" may be possible. KC could see a dusting. A stronger system develops Monday night and NE KS and much of central and northern MO could see accumulating snow. Right now the GFS would show potentially 2" around KC and maybe as much as 3-5" in northern MO. Still way too early to know how this with pan out. 

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part of the Day-2 SPC outlook (Slight Risk for MO/AR/OK)

Quote

While convection will initially struggle to develop,
   sustained ascent should contribute to thunderstorm maturation. 
   Forecast nam soundings suggest near-surface based supercells will
   evolve by mid evening...perhaps over eastern OK then spread/develop
   east across southern MO/AR.  If surface-based updrafts evolve then a
   few tornadoes could be noted; otherwise, large hail and damaging
   winds are the primary threats as thunderstorms progress toward the
   MS river by sunrise Tuesday morning.

Today's 12z NAM shows at 09z Tuesday: 2000 J/kg of CAPE, 250 m2/s2 of SRH, and 41 kt of effective shear at the MO/AR border.

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