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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion


lookingnorth

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21 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Sounds like we get a relaxation period until early/mid January and then could be back to cold for a while.  

Yeah, it's what the last 2 runs of the Weeklies have been showing. The Euro keeps the troughing in the west with a continued +EPO, +AO look until about mid-Jan when the trough moves to the central US and a -EPO builds. It's possible that may happen sooner or later than indicated though, but the weeklies were consistent with each other for 2 runs in a row. Should be able to see if they make it 3 in a row in about 4 hours or so.

 

 

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Weeklies today continue the trend of the last 2 runs with more of a -EPO towards Mid-Jan. Still not really seeing a -AO clearly that lasts. Might be some more -PNA issues as we head into early Feb (end of run) but the -EPO is still there. 

Temps out in about 45 mins.

EDIT: No big changes in Weeklies temps... Above normal through Mid-Jan, and then below normal the rest of the run through 00z Feb 3rd. 

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11 hours ago, JoMo said:

Weeklies today continue the trend of the last 2 runs with more of a -EPO towards Mid-Jan. Still not really seeing a -AO clearly that lasts. Might be some more -PNA issues as we head into early Feb (end of run) but the -EPO is still there. 

Temps out in about 45 mins.

EDIT: No big changes in Weeklies temps... Above normal through Mid-Jan, and then below normal the rest of the run through 00z Feb 3rd. 

Could get a monster through here in late January if we can get a -NAO. Been really hard to do so far. The winter is still pretty young though.

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Changes have been showing up on the last 2 Euro ensemble runs at the end of the run as we head into early Jan. It's wanting to pop a -EPO and the trough finally makes it back into the west instead of hanging out over the Pacific ocean. Hopefully these changes stick around and get closer in time so we build more cold air in Canada. 

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8 hours ago, JoMo said:

Changes have been showing up on the last 2 Euro ensemble runs at the end of the run as we head into early Jan. It's wanting to pop a -EPO and the trough finally makes it back into the west instead of hanging out over the Pacific ocean. Hopefully these changes stick around and get closer in time so we build more cold air in Canada. 

I saw a little of that on the run last night. Some take the cold across much more quickly than others when it loads back in as well. So far though good agreement on bringing cold back in for an ensemble from 15 days out.

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12z Euro ensemble continued the trend of the -EPO but kept the troughing a bit farther west this run. So it kept the cold air across the northern Plains, western Canada and parts of the western US through the 5th.

The control run went wild with a big -EPO, hints of a -AO and a huge trough with Arctic air spilling into our area on the 4th-5th. Probably a bit early. 

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I'll be in southeastern Iowa for Christmas. It's truly absurd that even there it'll likely be in the 50s! May see a bit of snow on our way up on Saturday from the modest Friday-early Saturday system. I suppose we can still get into the spirit by imagining Christmas in Bethlehem... Plus, we did have a little pre-Christmas snow and cold, which is more than we can say for many years. 

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12z Euro ensemble continues to have a better look going into Jan as it builds cold across west Canada into the west and upper Plains. 

Weeklies this week changed a bit from the previous run. Keeping more of the trough in the west this run so the cold is probably around us or just to the NW. Lose the -EPO around mid-Jan for a bit before it comes back in late Jan and early Feb. Control looks pretty darn stormy with systems passing to our south a lot of the time. Hmm.

Temps in a bit.

Edit: 7 day average temps look above normal until probably after Jan 10th. From there we are riding the line through the end of the run 00z Feb 6th. Kansas looks to remains below normal much of the time, much of OK does as well. AR and MO may go above normal for a bit somewhere in there. Overall, not too bad. 

The Euro control has at least 3 snowstorms impacting our area during the run.

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