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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion


lookingnorth

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There's still possible failures. If the individual storm systems track to the NW of our area due to -PNA. The Euro has been bad about wanting to stuff the trough in the SW and keep it there with no systems kicking out, but that's a Euro bias. Just have to wait and see, but it looks more active than what we've been experiencing. 

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35 minutes ago, JoMo said:

There's still possible failures. If the individual storm systems track to the NW of our area due to -PNA. The Euro has been bad about wanting to stuff the trough in the SW and keep it there with no systems kicking out, but that's a Euro bias. Just have to wait and see, but it looks more active than what we've been experiencing. 

If we get -PNA every time there's a big system this year, I might as well start stocking up for an ice storm right now. Lol

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0z euro ensembles as well as the control are really beginning to increase snow chances in the 10-15 day period over the area. GFS ens are on board with some snowfall as well. It's a long way away but it has grown with each run with this being the first time that the control has shown such an outcome. The Euro trend of slowly moving further south and east each run is a known bias it has so this makes sense.

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Pretty evident that there will be a large storm system over the plains sometime in the 11/29 to 12/5 time frame... Biggest questions are how much cold air wraps around the system, and how deep the cold air is, as well as how far south the system ends up being. Looks like a solid shot at a nice snowstorm somewhere across the plains nonetheless! 

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I'm starting to think 1978-79 is going to be a strong analog at times this winter. It isn't a good match for the Atlantic (it's much warmer now), but it's decent for ENSO. There were borderline La Nina conditions in Aug-Oct, and Sept-Nov that year, but the ocean warmed to neutral in the winter that year - that's something I expect to happen this winter too. 1978 also followed two El Nino winters, which is pretty rare. The PDO in 1978 looks sort of like a mirror image of right now, but it's not super negative either.

It's my strongest match if you compare observed highs in Albuquerque from June-Oct (likely Nov too) against all years back to 1931, it's off by ~8F in error in like six months (worst matches are off by almost ~40F). Precip in November has also been almost dead on so far to 1978. 1963 & 2014 are decent matches too.

Year    June    July    August    Sept    Oct    Nov
2016    93.3    95.6    85.8    83.2    75.9    59.9
1978    91.9    96.8    89.9    83.2    75.3    59.3

The numbers are observed highs in the two years by month. November 2016 is estimated. I'm a little freaked out, given that 1978-1979 is an all time legendary winter for cold after a warm Fall....and February 1964 & 2015 were very cold in the East & MW too. Maybe with the PDO phase working with the -AO in a different way than in 1978, the intense cold we saw stays in Asia, but it's definitely got my attention nonetheless.

 

1978...May God Help Us 2.png

1978...May God Help Us.PNG

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54 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Pretty evident that there will be a large storm system over the plains sometime in the 11/29 to 12/5 time frame... Biggest questions are how much cold air wraps around the system, and how deep the cold air is, as well as how far south the system ends up being. Looks like a solid shot at a nice snowstorm somewhere across the plains nonetheless! 

Yeah, it looks like quite a parade of systems that are possible. The GFS/EURO aren't going to be able to sort all this out until each system gets closer. The track and strength of each system will depend on the next system upstream and the spacing between each system. The airmass won't be overly cold compared to normal until more -EPO ridging develops or the system barrage slows down. Fun to watch tho!

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21 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

It's nice to see this poppin up already for sure! I am for surely not going to get my hopes up though lol, last year we all got burnt bad! But I do like the way this is heading

Oh and if I do not get a chance to get back on here before turkey day, Happy Thanksgiving to all of you ok!!!

I hope we get some snow before Christmas. That's when I like my snow so it sets the holiday mood. Having to wait until Feb for snow was driving me nuts. 

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

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9 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Yea I do not like what I see on his :( . Says warm and dont sound too thrilling, he's usually pretty good with his long range forecasts too. Oh well, time will tell I guess lol.

Well, last year he busted badly. So here's hoping for 2 in a row!

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Pretty good track for SW MO and KS on that storm system next Tues on the 18z GFS, if only it was a bit colder! Major red flag of something changing towards the end of the run as the GFS went pretty extreme with the cold. None of the models have been any good in the long range though. If they keep showing the -EPO though, it can get cold really fast. 

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3 hours ago, JoMo said:

Pretty good track for SW MO and KS on that storm system next Tues on the 18z GFS, if only it was a bit colder! Major red flag of something changing towards the end of the run as the GFS went pretty extreme with the cold. None of the models have been any good in the long range though. If they keep showing the -EPO though, it can get cold really fast. 

Latest run of the Euro put the block over the Aleutians. No good for anyone east of the Rockies unless you're near Canada. Lol. All the models have been really sketchy lately though, as you said.

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3 hours ago, JoMo said:

Pretty good track for SW MO and KS on that storm system next Tues on the 18z GFS, if only it was a bit colder! Major red flag of something changing towards the end of the run as the GFS went pretty extreme with the cold. None of the models have been any good in the long range though. If they keep showing the -EPO though, it can get cold really fast. 

Eh long range, models all seem to be bad with that? Idk man I just hope this season will not be a repeat. Today was cooler but still warm for me, it is what it is I guess haha. On another note my aunt in central jersey said she didnt go over 30 the other day! Its been cold on the east coast, I wonder if they will have another crazy snowy winter. These crazy temp swings gotta go though it's getting old lol.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you!!

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11 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Happy Thanksgiving to everybody.

Anyone read Gary Lezak? He has this:

slide13

He does think there are major cold snaps despite the warmth overall.

When I lived in kc I use to watch him primarily(I still watch his stuff on facebook), he's usually a really good met. Now that's two saying above average temps this winter bleh!!

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