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WxWatcher007

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion Thread II

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27 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I  have a wedding on the beach at Chesapeake Beach Md.  driving down from Southern PA what can I expect?

 

Much better off than Ocean City that's for sure. The point and click shows Tropical Storm conditions possible Sunday into Monday, but shouldn't be anything threatening enough to danger your festive as long as and assuming everything stays indoors.

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I wimped out and am spending the night in Williamsburg (more accurately,  outside Wythe candy store), and will venture down to the obx tomorrow noonish. Should be over by the time I get there. Personally,  my fear about going down there tonight was a rogue tornado considering that the center will be headed over, or slightly to the west of, the beaches. 

I rode out the leftovers from TS Alberto in a house between Duck and Corolla in 2006, but that tracked just a hair further west/north, IIRC. 

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I heard that models aren't ocean coupled a while back. That means the intensity shown on models should be way to high, because this storm will upwell a lot of cold water sitting off the Del Marva for 60 hours.

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

I heard that models aren't ocean coupled a while back. That means the intensity shown on models should be way to high, because this storm will upwell a lot of cold water sitting off the Del Marva for 60 hours.

:huh:

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44 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I  have a wedding on the beach at Chesapeake Beach Md.  driving down from Southern PA what can I expect?

 

They have a nice outdoor pavilion and concert shell but it will likely be too stormy

Rod  and Reel is wonderful restaurant with Great crab cakes and rockfish

across the street is a good crabhouse and the resort does have slots and bingo 

 

 

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1 hour ago, BTRWx said:

Who wants a reason to get more wound up? Fwiw, I don't support what he's saying

Screenshot_2016-09-02-16-18-57.png

Just like his dad... :facepalm:

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18 NAM definitely a step towards EURO, just not all the way to the coast...South Jersey gets raked ...it main gain enough latitude before stalling to save OC, Md. from the strongest onshore effects.

 

 

XXX.png

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This storm is definitely west of NHC forecast points right now. That much is fairly clear. The question is what affect does it have down the line?

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18 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

This storm is definitely west of NHC forecast points right now. That much is fairly clear. The question is what affect does it have down the line?

Really? It looks to be pretty close to being on track to me, looking at the mesoscale analysis page.

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I know nothing but to me, it looks like it is basically right in the middle of the cone right now, if not just slightly to the east of the middle of the cone. Kinda hard to tell since the circulation is so much bigger now. I definitely don't think it's west of the middle of the cone though.

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27 minutes ago, yoda said:

Well 18z GFS was intriguing... lends credence toward the 12z EURO run

18z GFS north of NC is west.

 

Yoda what did Control run do compared to OP euro?

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2 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

18z GFS north of NC is west.

 

Yoda what did Control run do compared to OP euro?

I think the control was a bit further SW with it's 2nd landfall than the OP... EPS members were posted a page ago for hrs 48 to 60

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30 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Really? It looks to be pretty close to being on track to me, looking at the mesoscale analysis page.

Hard to find the circulation. Maybe I'm wrong, but it sure looks to me it's riding land.

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think the control was a bit further SW with it's 2nd landfall than the OP... EPS members were posted a page ago for hrs 48 to 60

Don't worry.. this is where the French model makes a name for itself ;)

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For parts of our subforum, tomorrow morning into mid-afternoon is likely to be pretty wild. The 18Z GFS has backed the strongest winds   (50-60+ mph) slightly west in that window to right over the entire Hampton Roads/VB area. And it's showing the bay all the way up to St. Mary's County having TS conditions. 

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2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

For parts of our subforum, tomorrow morning into mid-afternoon is likely to be pretty wild. The 18Z GFS has backed the strongest winds   (50-60+ mph) slightly west in that window to right over the entire Hampton Roads/VB area. And it's showing the bay all the way up to St. Mary's County having TS conditions. 

Yeah, I'm pretty excited. It could be my first experience of legit tropical storm conditions, seeing as tropical systems rarely put out much wind in W Fairfax County when I lived there. (I was to young to remember Isabel.) It's the perfect storm in that it won't have any serious impacts too. Likely to not even lose power.

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4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, I'm pretty excited. It could be my first experience of legit tropical storm conditions, seeing as tropical systems rarely put out much wind in W Fairfax County when I lived there. (I was to young to remember Isabel.) It's the perfect storm in that it won't have any serious impacts too. Likely to not even lose power.

That "sudden" strengthening of winds on the west side of Hermine as it exits the NC coast shown on most of the models is reminiscent of Bonnie (98).... just with a lesser peak wind value. People in Virginia Beach were caught off guard by the rapid ramp up of winds to hurricane force in Bonnie and the damage was unexpectedly severe. 

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Well 18z GFS was intriguing... lends credence toward the 12z EURO run

Agreed. Two more little changes like the 18z probably gives the Metro area  some much needed rain.

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18z GFDL maintains its run... landfalls a 2nd time around hr 60 located just south of the MD/DE line on the Eastern Shore at 984mb... then sits around 6-12 hrs... moves back east by 72 and basically stalls off Ocean City by 100 miles or so for the rest of the run

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

...CENTER OF HERMINE APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...90 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

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Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning. Red sky at night, sailor's delight. We're doomed!

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Isn't Sunday night into Monday supposed to be the worst for our area?

If we get anything, that will be the window.

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In my mind I keep saying to myself, if I wake up and there's any nearby precipitation tomorrow morning then we're golden. Very wishful thinking. lol

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Saw in the NYC forum newest GFDL makes landfall at Salisbury.  Perhaps the west trend continues. 

I think someone killed the fsu server.

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