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WxWatcher007

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion Thread II

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Seriously, if this thing were to be a couple of miles per hour slower over the next 12 hrs or so, you'd think that would be a big deal.  Of course, faster would be as well.  Just my opinion but it seems logical.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yep, identical spot at 96hrs.

Looks a good bit sw of the gfs @ 96? Stalls in its tracks. GFS progresses further north. Not that it means much to us but the beaches won't like the euro. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Seriously, if this thing were to be a couple of miles per hour slower over the next 12 hrs or so, you'd think that would be a big deal.  Of course, faster would be as well.  Just my opinion but it seems logical.

 

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We just can't know.

 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Looks a good bit sw of the gfs @ 96? Stalls in its tracks. GFS progresses further north. Not that it means much to us but the beaches won't like the euro. 

agree.  GFS parked it closer to NJ, now its near DE

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

All the beach replenishment from Sandy is gone per the Euro.

A Forecaster's nightmare with a stalling system just offshore!

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Just now, BTRWx said:

A Forecaster's nightmare with a stalling system just offshore!

Worked for NASA Wallops as a GIS Specialist in grad school.  We studied the risk to the space port there from sea level rise and I even got my work published.........2 weeks before Sandy hit and destroyed a year's worth of research.

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Euro and GFS are pretty much lock step until it exits the coast. Euro is just a TAD slower off the NC/VA border than GFS was thus allowing it to hug the coast more. It also gets "captured" along DE coast vs NJ coast like GFS. 

Weird though when comparing winds/rain. 

Euro has more gusts for us

GFS has more rain for us

(eastern shore gets smacked by both)

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Euro and GFS are pretty much lock step until it exits the coast. Euro is just a TAD slower off the NC/VA border than GFS was thus allowing it to hug the coast more. It also gets "captured" along DE coast vs NJ coast like GFS. 

Weird though when comparing winds/rain. 

Euro has more gusts for us

GFS has more rain for us

(eastern shore gets smacked by both)

Meaningful gusts? TS force or bust :P 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Meaningful gusts? TS force or bust :P 

during its retrograde back towards the coast Sunday night is when we get the best gusts. DC in the 34kts green color - 40kts+ along the coast of AA county, increasing as you go east. OC would be nearing 60-70kts gusts

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Still hanging around through hr 144... actually jogs a bit south between 120-144, still off Delaware, albeit around the longitude of Rhode Island.

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3 minutes ago, Mikethemanatee said:

I had plans to go to the DE beaches for the later part of the weekend.... looks like I'm going to go anyway for some hurricane chasing. Anybody know how much rain the Euro says for the DE and maryland coast?

Euro says 12.0" for the OC Inlet up to the Del Line. Need a good boat rental place?

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This is a bad setup for the coastline.  That's a long easterly fetch capable of cutting barrier islands apart.

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3 minutes ago, Mikethemanatee said:

I had plans to go to the DE beaches for the later part of the weekend.... looks like I'm going to go anyway for some hurricane chasing. Anybody know how much rain the Euro says for the DE and maryland coast?

Depending on where along DE/MD you are going. Pretty much from Cape May (6") south...  12" in OC, 10" Chincoteague. 

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Really going to be a timing thing. Euro slows down for whatever reason (none stick out to me, 500 lvls are pretty much the same between Euro/GFS). But it seems the slower it is to exit the coast, the better it seems we are in terms of getting some weather. All relative of course, if you don't want weather... then this is a horrible track for you. 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Depending on where along DE/MD you are going. Pretty much from Cape May (6") south...  12" in OC, 10" Chincoteague. 

When does it stop raining around Duck, NC?

Meh, I have a house starting tomorrow for a week...at least there's a house there now.

 

Thanks

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

When does it stop raining around Duck, NC?

Meh, I have a house starting tomorrow for a week...at least there's a house there now.

 

Thanks

all of OBX is clear of rain by saturday night

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Depending on where along DE/MD you are going. Pretty much from Cape May (6") south...  12" in OC, 10" Chincoteague. 

Sorry for the IMBY question, but I'm super curious about down my way in SE VA.

 

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These banana highs with tropical interaction are strange birds. not a lot of history so much up in the air

strong and long term easterly to ne fetch for sure. The clockwise flow of the high may even be more dominant in aiding wind increase as opposed to the tropical effects solely 

north to south running surf for several high tide cycles will be huge erosion problem

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Depending on where along DE/MD you are going. Pretty much from Cape May (6") south...  12" in OC, 10" Chincoteague. 

I'm in the Lewes area. They got horrible flooding during our big blizzard in January. I hope its not as bad as that. 

http://www.delawareonline.com/story/weather/2016/01/23/high-tide-brings-beach-flooding-and-may-get-worse/79225716/

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Looks like the new center fix is going to have more northerly component than the prior ones. 

was just about to say the same thing. Recon still out there and center might be more north of its last pass.  If center was still going NE from last fixed position it would have found it by now

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5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

 

Sorry for the IMBY question, but I'm super curious about down my way in SE VA.

 

8.6" of rain by Monday night (this is total precip so now until then). You'll def have gusts in the 60s near 70s as the low passes just to your south, Saturday during the day. center exists off the coast near the VA/NC border. So... expect a windy/rainy saturday/sunday. 

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

sweet, thanks!

np

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