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WxWatcher007

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion Thread II

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The storm is punching into a big dry hp to the north. Gradient will be tight regardless. 

Yep... while the appearance of a N motion, it is actually for the first time, really wrapping storms around the center... shear has relaxed and it is noticeable. But the overall motion continues to the NNE for the most part. 

Hermine could really intensify later today... definitely a scary situation for those in Florida atm and along the coast. Being from Tallahassee, and having family in Tallahassee, it is both exciting but also worrying.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

GFS is almost a carbon copy of 06z through 36.

slightly faster but thats nitpicking

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

HP to the north not as well situated and storm is a little faster. Prob will be east of 6z.

Think so?  I was thinking opposite comparing to 0z and 6z

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Think so?  I was thinking opposite comparing to 0z and 6z

 

Yea, it's east. The slight uptick in speed means a lot. It's a major timing thing for us. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

 

Yea, it's east. The slight uptick in speed means a lot. It's a major timing thing for us. 

it wants to split the difference between the two runs right now.  

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

crickets after the 12z run.  lol

 

Still could get a little over 1" rain in Dc from this

It's a backyard sport. CAPE approves of the run. 

 

12z CMC is a snoozer. 

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

crickets after the 12z run.  lol

 

Still could get a little over 1" rain in Dc from this

Crickets since the shift last night really. Once away from the water these things rarely end up being anything more than glorified rainstorms. Even Sandy was Meh for DC.

 

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gfs has gusts in the 30s on sunday for those on west side of the bay. 40-50s for OC

 

5-6" of rain for OC

.6 for DC

.1 for Winchester

more further north of Baltimore, about ~1" for my backyard

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a backyard sport. CAPE approves of the run. 

 

12z CMC is a snoozer. 

I am the NPZ of the eastern shore lately. Rain shields are up and effective over mby the past month.

In all seriousness, this could be bad news for the MA coastline given the possible stall/loop look on some guidance. I would love to get few inches of rain, but it wont matter much at this point. Grass is done. Gut feeling is any significant rain and wind ends up along the immediate coast.

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I would tend to lean towards a scrape east for us locally. Let's see what the short term movement is when recon makes their next fix on the center. Maybe we can get a north or even NW wobble ;)

or a slowdown :P 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

or a slowdown :P 

Yes I forgot - or that. Though a slowdown and a jog east would probably be a wash ;)

As you and I have discussed before it's probably always a safe bet to assume tropical systems won't get us at all. The beaches could be a fun sight...

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