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WxWatcher007

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion Thread II

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

LOL- euro re-strengthens Hermine and almost landfalls OBX d8-9. 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_9.png

 

 

Goat storm if we can get two landfalls which both affect us lol

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31 minutes ago, SabreAce33 said:

What's the general rule on correlation of 10m to surface winds?

Pretty close to 1:1

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12 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Can someone post the total QPF map for the end of the Euro run thanks.

 

nope. its all behind paywall sites. sorry. 

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Let's not forget about the time frames we're still looking at. There is almost no chance that these exact scenarios currently being modeled will be the outcome. Remember that as we're about 4 days away from anything big up this way.

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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12z model guidance has exhibited a significant westward shift
with the future track of what is now Tropical Storm Hermine. This
shift suggests an increasing threat for heavy rain over the CWA.
This would most likely occur Saturday-Sunday. After that point the
system may meander off the coast for several days...continuing to
influence the weather in our area. The exact track and details of
impacts are still very uncertain. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for official information and guidance.

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Substantial shift west with the 18z hurricane models compared to 12z  

18ztracks.JPG

Its really intersting that these models keep shifting westward... weekend looks very intriguing... nevertheless perhaps refreshing :lol:

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Let's not forget about the time frames we're still looking at. There is almost no chance that these exact scenarios currently being modeled will be the outcome. Remember that as we're about 4 days away from anything big up this way.

Yeah.  This thing might still go west.

Congrats Detroit?

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8 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

Then can you at least tell us the QPF totals.

I did. Read the thread. 

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6 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

Then can you at least tell us the QPF totals.

She posted QPF for quite a few locations an hour ago.  Are you not located near any of them?

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Just now, WhiteoutMD said:

Is the 11 inches in OC for all of next week?

No. was only through monday. 

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

I figure throw out models until Hermine starts making significant northward progress.

No met would throw out a model. They may disregard certain scenarios, but all guidance should be considered at least partially. 

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If Hermine were to strengthen more/quicker than forecast prior to florida landfall, what effect would this have for us/track wise down the line?

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1 minute ago, BTRWx said:

No met would throw out a model. They may disregard certain scenarios, but all guidance should be considered at least partially. 

Well sure, they have to make forecasts. I'm just saying the track/ intensity will remain highly uncertain until it does so.

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44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

LOL- euro re-strengthens Hermine and almost landfalls OBX d8-9. 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_9.png

 

 

When I go to the Outer Banks in a couple weeks, there might be no beach left. **If** something like this were to occur erosion would be pretty bad. 

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

I dont understand.... what are you getting at?

"how much for philly?"

~2"

and I wouldn't mention Philly, as they are not part of this subforum. 

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31 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

No met would throw out a model. They may disregard certain scenarios, but all guidance should be considered at least partially. 

Yeah, for the last week I've heard a lot of "throw out the models until x happens". But when x finally happens the advice is repeated just with x replaced with y. There will always be a reason to discount one or more models, but at the end of the day you still have to make forecast.

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