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Hermine


LakeEffectKing

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FWIW - just what I'm picking up from elsewhere:

18Z GFS has TD#9 as a Tropical Storm hitting the big Bend on early Friday morning

18Z HWRF has a category 2 hurricane (968 mb) with a landfall just north of Cedar Key.. Thursday morning.

18Z GFDL: Category 1 hurricane with a landfall also just north of Cedar Key midday Thursday.

Source: Forums at http://flhurricane.com/

 

Not suggesting any agreement - just saying that some models don't like us down here and that is in and of itself, disconcerting

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's really helpful, I appreciate it.

Do you know why the times at the top are so different? Is it just the delay in relaying data?

At every pass all images are regenerated in that site. Which is around every hour. That's the image generation time. 

BTW, ASCAT just did the ascending pass near TD 9, but missed it. We'll have to wait around 12 hours for another try.

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it already has a lower pressure than most models at about 1004- lower than the GFS and Euro. Very deep convection south of the center. Euro has a decent TS at landfall, HWRF a hurricane. GFDL a weaker TS. So I think the consensus says the GFS is probably too weak. NHC's forecast looks as good as anything IMO.

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3 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

it already has a lower pressure than most models at about 1004- lower than the GFS and Euro. Very deep convection south of the center. Euro has a decent TS at landfall, HWRF a hurricane. GFDL a weaker TS. So I think the consensus says the GFS is probably too weak. NHC's forecast looks as good as anything IMO.

Why wouldn't the HWRF be too strong and the others (including the GFS) be the consensus?

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