wxmx Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 It's currently organizing quite quickly. Looks like that is also moving a little south due west because of this current organization trend. In any case, it's heading to a less hostile environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 16 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: It is ironic that the 2pm NHC update increases the odds substantially for development and at the same time the bullish Euro comes out and for the first time doesn't develop it at all. I wonder how much weight the models put in how it looks at initiation? Convection is finally over the center and if the LLC can clear Cuba you would think it would develop? Let it develop first and then let's see what solutions the models come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 35 minutes ago, Morris said: The king is dead. DTs probably gonna have a seizure if the Euro is the only model that screws it up this badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGuide Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Great measured discussion in here compared to some other weather enthusiast gathering spots. And what Larry said. Euro's performance with this has been sub-par. GFS not much better, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, wxmx said: It's currently organizing quite quickly. Looks like that is also moving a little south due west because of this current organization trend. In any case, it's heading to a less hostile environment. yup, the structure looks very disorganized and its going into a area of low OHC, but as long as sheer is let up anything is better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Too bad, it looks like the potential CoC is too close to the Cuban coast, so recon can't make a fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGuide Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 You're kidding, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Well that nails the coffin shut if that's true. No major cane out of this troll storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Looks like recon has found a closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 It's close to the coast, but still the necessary miles out at sea so that recon can check it's southern hemisphere. The center doesn't look very well defined (expected), but closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Getting closer to becoming TD9. If this convection and circulation hold together for another few hours, I bet they'll pull the trigger on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine at 5 PM EDT. BYE BYE 99L! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Morris said: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine at 5 PM EDT. BYE BYE 99L! So they are referring to 99L when they say advisories will start on TD9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: So they are referring to 99L when they say advisories will start on TD9? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 A consensus should begin to emerge at 0z now that we have a center of circulation. Whose gonna stay up for the Euro PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Topic name updated - Let's reel this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Question... if they find that TD9 and TD8 get tropical storm force winds at the same time during lets say the next advisory what would be named what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGuide Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said: Question... if they find that TD9 and TD8 get tropical storm force winds at the same time during lets say the next advisory what would be named what. My guess is TD 8 would get the H name. Don't think there's a set protocol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, WeatherGuide said: My guess is TD 8 would get the H name. Don't think there's a set protocol Not me, after today's 12z EURO I am not doing anymore PBPs with this system because they will likely be mostly 4 letter words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 NHC has the forecasted intensity so low because of THE KING The depression will be moving through a marginal environment for intensification during the next day or so, with vertical shear of 15 to 20 kt. As a result only slow strengthening is expected in the short term. Later on, the environment may improve a little as the shear is forecast to decrease somewhat and become southwesterly, which should allow for a little more strengthening. However, there are mixed signals in the model guidance, with the ECMWF now showing the cyclone dissipating in the Gulf, while the GFS delays development until 4-5 days. Much of the tropical cyclone guidance is more aggressive. Given this uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast is quite conservative and shows the system peaking at 45 kt, below all the explicit intensity guidance in consideration of the negative signal from the ECMWF. Needless to say, the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than usual for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 I believe this has great potential to become a Hurricane tracking into the Big Bend area. Environment is becoming more conducive with each passing hour. GOM is (bath-water) rocket-fuel warmth. The 7H circulation has been intact for days. Closed surface circulation now with co-located storms, less shear and lowering pressure. The wanna-be in the end could be a surprise in which many wrote-off. Whatever becomes, it will be fun to watch evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 17 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: I believe this has great potential to become a Hurricane tracking into the Big Bend area. Environment is becoming more conducive with each passing hour. GOM is (bath-water) rocket-fuel warmth. The 7H circulation has been intact for days. Closed surface circulation now with co-located storms, less shear and lowering pressure. The wanna-be in the end could be a surprise in which many wrote-off. Whatever becomes, it will be fun to watch evolve. Not here it won't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 2 hours ago, SN_Lover said: Well that nails the coffin shut if that's true. No major cane out of this troll storm. This storm has been declared done by 80% of the posters here at some point depressive anticipatory melancholy does not a better or even useful discussion make Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 6pm. New convection firing over the top of LLC. I marked it with an X. Outflow is becoming better east and south but don't know how much of that is diurnal convection from the islands. Models now have to play catchup but it looks like its becoming a big system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Wow. It finally developed. I'm sure the models will continue to have no clue on it for a little while longer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 WSI RPM has a strong TS or cat 1 'cane in 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: 6pm. New convection firing over the top of LLC. I marked it with an X. Outflow is becoming better east and south but don't know how much of that is diurnal convection from the islands. Models now have to play catchup but it looks like its becoming a big system. This is looking like a potentially massive system atm. Of course it could be diurnal convection as you stated so it will be interesting to see how TD 9 fairs overnight and into the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 5-10mb stronger than the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Let's see if the models are in more agreement tonight 0z with the recon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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