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All-purpose Thunderstorm Discussion Thread II


CT Rain

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18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

After this round HRRR is kind of all fizzle no sizzle, but it would probably take that stuff in PA until after 00z to get into SNE.

Why you think the models are doing that...parameters appear to further become favorable and we have the height falls and such.  Do you think that these hi res focus too much on forcing alone..like if forcing isn't crazy strong they develop nothing?  Would be a far cry from when they loved cape lol and popped anything in big cape 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Why you think the models are doing that...parameters appear to further become favorable and we have the height falls and such.  Do you think that these hi res focus too much on forcing alone..like if forcing isn't crazy strong they develop nothing?  Would be a far cry from when they loved cape lol and popped anything in big cape 

Models are always better with coherent forcing. Open warm sector convection is just hard to model period.

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Llvl beginning to crank now and that should further enhance and largen hodographs towards evening.  One thing that we lacked was stronger 0-1km shear I think but that is increasing.  

With ample heating going on and increasing moisture/theta-e we will become very unstable.  

While forcing won't be overly strong the presence of weak height falls could be enough.  

Not sure if we see a TOR threat as activity may be more linear but severe threat should still exist 

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this was a 4-hour bad timing frustration ... writing was on the wall if you ask me.  i mentioned this morning that the warm front appeared retarded - maybe ct

we may yet warm sector, but we aren't getting any sun help from it ... to late.  we'll see what other triggers/mechanics can do to offset. 

 

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