Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Winter 2016-17 Discussion


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 312
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said:

Seeing some blues show up in the Midwest on the simulated radar field in the long range GFS. :wub:  Just another reminder that winter is coming.

It's pretty normal for someone in Michigan to see snow in the next 3 weeks, typically in the high terrain near Gaylord and the western UP.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

Seeing some blues show up in the Midwest on the simulated radar field in the long range GFS. :wub:  Just another reminder that winter is coming.

Yes :thumbsup:

 

Welcome to the board!  You may appreciate this - a paper about the 1981-82 Winter...which I believe was one of the harshest on record for your area.  The paper was co-written by the father of one of my meteorology professors at NIU in the 1990s.

http://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/RI/ISWSRI-104.pdf

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On September 29, 2016 at 9:32 PM, Jonger said:

It's pretty normal for someone in Michigan to see snow in the next 3 weeks, typically in the high terrain near Gaylord and the western UP.

Actually liking the signals for a warm October.  One of the few times of the year here where the bugs are tolerable and there isn't snow.

 The snow will come... a few more weeks of warm weather will be nice.

Leaves are nearing peak here now. Maybe just a few days off... A week to 10 days behind average. 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Actually liking the signals for a warm October.  One of the few times of the year here where the bugs are tolerable and there isn't snow.

 The snow will come... a few more weeks of warm weather will be nice.

Leaves are nearing peak here now. Maybe just a few days off... A week to 10 days behind average. 

 

 

 

Hmm... looping global models show a pretty average October from what I saw recently. Looks above average through the 7th though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Hmm... looping global models show a pretty average October from what I saw recently. Looks above average through the 7th though.

From Mqt this morning:

rival of the trof late week will send temps
down, back to normal or even blo normal. It does not look like any
period of blo normal temps will last long as NAEFS and CPC outlooks
indicate that above normal temps should overall be favored into mid
Oct. CFSv2 ensembles still indicate a strong/consistent signal for
above normal temps overall into late Oct.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Actually liking the signals for a warm October.  One of the few times of the year here where the bugs are tolerable and there isn't snow.

 The snow will come... a few more weeks of warm weather will be nice.

Leaves are nearing peak here now. Maybe just a few days off... A week to 10 days behind average. 

 

 

 

Foliage almost 3 weeks behind down here...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My analog package for this winter (also posted on twitter) included:

2008-09

1961-62

2005-06

1983-84

1959-60

My top two years were 2008-09 and 1961-62, so they were weighted double. I looked for a Weak Modoki La nina, +QBO, Low solar and -PDO. It was impossible to find any given year which met all the criteria but a WB nina was a characteristic of all the above years as I felt that this was most important. 3/5 years had a +QBO and 3/5 had a weak +PDO while the overall mean had a -PDO due to the weighting. Overall, I believe that the weak -NAO depiction is incorrect in the DJF composite. Im thinking that the NAO averages +ve in the DJF mean given the +QBO/low solar. The +QBO is unfavourable and the QBO/Solar combination are also unfavourable for a SSW/-NAM given the Holtan-Tan effect and its implications.

DJF Surface temperature anomaly mean

CuQ8p_iWcAEGHSs.jpg

 

Northern Hemispheric z500 heights

CuQ8rObWcAQkKmm.jpg

Precip

YK6dzpqJA1-1.png

The mean ridge positioning shifts east from December to January which seems to be supported by typical jet changes and the fact that the la nina will be weakening throughout the DJF period. 

DEC

p6C_8uymrQ.png

JAN

dpsAaOdoVD.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

My analog package for this winter (also posted on twitter) included:

2008-09

1961-62

2005-06

1983-84

1959-60

My top two years were 2008-09 and 1961-62, so they were weighted double. I looked for a Weak Modoki La nina, +QBO, Low solar and -PDO. It was impossible to find any given year which met all the criteria but a WB nina was a characteristic of all the above years as I felt that this was most important. 3/5 years had a +QBO and 3/5 had a weak +PDO while the overall mean had a -PDO due to the weighting. Overall, I believe that the weak -NAO depiction is incorrect in the DJF composite. Im thinking that the NAO averages +ve in the DJF mean given the +QBO/low solar. The +QBO is unfavourable and the QBO/Solar combination are also unfavourable for a SSW/-NAM given the Holtan-Tan effect and its implications.

DJF Surface temperature anomaly mean

CuQ8p_iWcAEGHSs.jpg

 

Northern Hemispheric z500 heights

CuQ8rObWcAQkKmm.jpg

Precip

YK6dzpqJA1-1.png

The mean ridge positioning shifts east from December to January which seems to be supported by typical jet changes and the fact that the la nina will be weakening throughout the DJF period. 

DEC

p6C_8uymrQ.png

JAN

dpsAaOdoVD.png

How much weight are you putting into the PDO? I noticed you didn't include 2013-14 in your analog package.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's been my thinking for some time as well. The warmer waters in the north Pacific have set up a bit further west than in 2013, which leads not only me, but others as well to believe that the resulting trough may set up more over the upper Midwest, compared to the farther east trough of 2013. However, the CFS (not sure if it's the only climate model doing this currently) has been showing a moderate la nina for nino 3.4 now. That would definitely throw a wrench into things...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

That's been my thinking for some time as well. The warmer waters in the north Pacific have set up a bit further west than in 2013, which leads not only me, but others as well to believe that the resulting trough may set up more over the upper Midwest, compared to the farther east trough of 2013. However, the CFS (not sure if it's the only climate model doing this currently) has been showing a moderate la nina for nino 3.4 now. That would definitely throw a wrench into things...

I'm pretty sure right now CFS is a loner in the moderate Niña call, most other models are saying a weak Niña right now. 

Most people need to realize we are coming off a record strong El Niño stronger than 72, 82, 97 (right?) 2013-2014 was a second year neutral enso. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mostly correct on the comparison to '97.

In terms of the 3.4 tri-monthly index it was a tie with '97 at 2.3C.

'15-'16 had a higher weekly/monthly peak (and was the first event to go over the 3.0C mark).

However, this event was less east-based than the '97 event, so it's not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. Nino 4, for instance, was extremely warm. In '97, the index never made it above 1.1, whereas this time around it peaked at an incredible 1.8C. The Nino 1+2 values were considerably lower than '97. All in all, the most exceptional part of the event was the extremely warm WPAC warm pool extension. 31C+ SSTs in the central eq. Pacific were pretty much unprecedented in the modern era.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Chambana said:

I'm pretty sure right now CFS is a loner in the moderate Niña call, most other models are saying a weak Niña right now. 

Most people need to realize we are coming off a record strong El Niño stronger than 72, 82, 97 (right?) 2013-2014 was a second year neutral enso. 

Yes, the CFS is an outlier at this point. No other NMME or IMME member has a moderate Nina. Most have neutral-negative.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Strong NPAC warm pool and ENSO neutral is good news of course. However, we're going to have to watch the PV again this year. It's spinning up early and 70-10Hpa temps are already running quite a bit below normal.

Neutral-negative and a GoA ridge won't help as much as you think if the AO doesn't play ball.

We're gonna have to wait and see how SCE and SLP anomalies go in the Arctic this month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

How much weight are you putting into the PDO? I noticed you didn't include 2013-14 in your analog package.

IMO, 13/14 is a good analog PDO wise and in general. I could have included it.

Because of the uniqueness of the PV(sitting N of Hudson Bay) and its persistence I decided to leave it out. Even if the EPO plays ball, it is tough to get that type of configuration to last through almost the entire DJF period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...