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John1122

2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion

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its looking like next Thursday we are in for a deluge in the valley wish it was snow but a lot of rain setting up . will this pattern ever end or are we gonna flood away into spring like California? didn't know wich forum to post this hope its ok.

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49 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

my appoligies didn't know if same people was in both forums ill refrain from in the future

I do not really frequent the Southeast Forum like I do this one, so I appreciate the post, not sure why it would matter if it were posted in both forums. I scan past material in all forums that I have already ready, pretty easy to do!

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2 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

my appoligies didn't know if same people was in both forums ill refrain from in the future

Makes sense.  No need to apologize.  And thanks for the response.  

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2 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

its looking like next Thursday we are in for a deluge in the valley wish it was snow but a lot of rain setting up . will this pattern ever end or are we gonna flood away into spring like California? didn't know wich forum to post this hope its ok.

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Here is the place to post IMO.  Good info.  We may need the rain...maybe not as much as CA.  Seems like the North Fork of the Holston in Kingsport is a bit low for spring.  I know Little River in Townsend is lower than normal, nothing extreme but low.  Little River Outfitters has a nice write-up each day about the fishing there.  They include a water flow report.  Hatches are rolling 4-6 weeks early.  But I think the water table is still low.  So, we need above normal rainfall when we can get it.  But again as you point out, we have to be careful what we wish for.  

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The 3.5 inches of snow here represent the lowest total I've ever seen here or that my grandfather ever recorded here. Granted, I have seen accumulating show all the way into late April here, so I won't discount that a spring surprise could happen. But barring that, it will be the worst snow total of any cold season in at least the last 90 years here.  I normally get around 20 inches. Had 3 consecutive above normal seasons. So this one being well below isn't a surprise, but the amount below is a surprise to me. The other thing is there were so few days where snow fell from the sky. Snow showery days without much accumulation are common here even in bad winters for totals. That wasn't a common thing this winter for sure. Amazing differences can happen here. 2 years ago yesterday it was around -10 degrees, yesterday's high here was 70. 

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I actually got more snow this winter than I did last year. Last year I barely had half an inch. This year I got a solid inch from one storm. I'd give this one a D. Last year was a D-. I definitely want to see a very wet March this year. We are still running way behind.  There was another small forest fire on the side of Lookout Mountain Friday afternoon. 

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Out of curiosity blunder, where are you getting your snowfall averages for there ? The average for the Honaker/Lebanon area is at least 25-30 inches. Wise's average was 48" as of 2010. Y'all should be withi 10-15" of there @ least.

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Second time typing this I lost it going to another page... anyway worldclimate and usclimatedata say Richlands...  (Although in Tazewell county it is a much better marker due to Richlands being closer and more in line with Honaker's temperature.) gets just 17 inches annually. I am skeptical of this but I cannot disprove it with hard evidence. My source comes from my local high school with an annual average of 22 inches according to my science teacher. 10.5 inches is what I have measured so far this winter from all combined events this winter season. Half of this took place in the early January event the rest was spread out in the few other minor events. The last system ended with about 2.5 inches of heavy wet snow. This disappeared quickly but I got a good measurement on it in the early morning using a ruler.

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Interestingly there is a big difference in snow total averages for swva for areas of similar elevation and temperature. Take Wise for example as you mentioned, it according to us climate data has an average high of 42 and low of 24 in January with a snowfall average of 52 inches (supposedly)! Richlands on the other hand has an average high of 43F and low of 21F with an average of just 17 inches (supposedly). Both towns experience almost all the same weather events. Wise sits at 2500ft while Richlands sits at 2000ft. The only possible way I can see Wise getting more snow is through collected NW flow snow. http://www.weather.gov/gsp/nwflow. I do not think it accounts for such a large difference though.

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Thanks for the info Blunder. Interesting stuff and not surprising the disparities. I ran across several outlets that did the same for this area. Sad! I recall one having an amount the same as for Knoxville ! Lol. 

    I have only measured 4.3" this season. Right with '73-74 and 90-91top 3 least snowy winters here in my lifetime.

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3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Thanks for the info Blunder. Interesting stuff and not surprising the disparities. I ran across several outlets that did the same for this area. Sad! I recall one having an amount the same as for Knoxville ! Lol. 

    I have only measured 4.3" this season. Right with '73-74 and 90-91top 3 least snowy winters here in my lifetime.

1973/1974 was the same way in the Nashville area, though, I think 2016/2017 has both beat for warmth. Remember, back then we didnt realize we just had another couple of bad seasons to go through before the heavy hitting back-to-back seasons of the mid to late 1970's! Here is to hoping it is the same now!

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Lol ! I guess they've lowered those "averages" considerably the last few years then, as they've raised the temp. avg. values based on recent data/warming climate.

 The Virginia state climatology office and sercc have different amounts. wonder why ? I guess it's where each gets it's data or comes up with it just estimating based on official stations. In any individuals case, I guess it's which/what they "want" to believe. In my case as far as my local, it's based on my personal non biased observations of about 40 years worth. Btw, I'm contacting Noaa to discuss why the change in the Wise averages and where that data came from. I'm a stickler for accuracy and honesty, always have been and always will be.

  John, we , as you know, are in an area that sees drastic increases in snow amounts at relatively short distances the further north you go, even without elevation increases. Also, Wise sits in an excellent downwind upslope location as opposed to further sw areas of the plateau, such as crossville. I think Carver can help me out here.

  Anyway, here's a couple good links if you want, imo, more detail and reasoning:  highknoblandform.com and climate.virginia.edu/online_data.htm

  Check out thats records as well. Wise holds state offocial seasonal snowfall record. 124.2 inches.

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54 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Lol ! I guess they've lowered those "averages" considerably the last few years then, as they've raised the temp. avg. values based on recent data/warming climate.

 The Virginia state climatology office and sercc have different amounts. wonder why ? I guess it's where each gets it's data or comes up with it just estimating based on official stations. In any individuals case, I guess it's which/what they "want" to believe. In my case as far as my local, it's based on my personal non biased observations of about 40 years worth. Btw, I'm contacting Noaa to discuss why the change in the Wise averages and where that data came from. I'm a stickler for accuracy and honesty, always have been and always will be.

  John, we , as you know, are in an area that sees drastic increases in snow amounts at relatively short distances the further north you go, even without elevation increases. Also, Wise sits in an excellent downwind upslope location as opposed to further sw areas of the plateau, such as crossville. I think Carver can help me out here.

  Anyway, here's a couple good links if you want, imo, more detail and reasoning:  highknoblandform.com and climate.virginia.edu/online_data.htm

  Check out thats records as well. Wise holds state offocial seasonal snowfall record. 124.2 inches.

23.4" seems really low.  Upslope totals up there are crazy at times if I remember correctly.  The border between KY and VA in that area seems to get hammered...I see their radar when I am watching events here in Kingsport.  When we are scraping for 1-2" of snow here w upslope events, they are getting 4-8" or more.  In a normal winter they can get a half dozen of just those events alone.  They have a well-known flooding problem during winter which is a good indicator of how much snow they get.  Seems like that average is suppressed quite a bit.   The flooding problem has been pretty well documented.  I bet if one could get their hands on those, they could get a pretty reliable snow avg.

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2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

The CMC is on an island by itself. I wouldn't put stock into it. GFS/Euro blend looks more realistic. Outside of higher terrain, best case scenario will feature token flurries on the tale end.

Gfs and Euro have been  tending south each new run 

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MRX is taking notice. Even mentioned the possibility of dynamic cooling.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

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