Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Great discussion today friends! Does DT regularly put out those kind of videos? That was the best I've seen from him outside of an amwx call in show, very informative. I hope to see more of those this winter. Glad to see you local folks getting fired up, time to stock up on popcorn! The one area the weeklies seemed to have the most consensus was lots of precip over the entire forum area. Above normal for the 46 day time period. I will take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Frigid cold on our side of the globe and precipitation chances are about all you can ask for in a given winter. As for DT videos , I think he puts them out weekly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 GFS OP flipped back to Hawaiian shirts and sun screen weather days 12-16. 70s and 50s heading into the 1st day of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Yeah, last several op Gfs runs just keep wanting to pop a huge SE heat ridge. Record highs galore if it's depiction comes to fruition. Uggh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I think the cold is making a mess of the models. No denying the GFS and its ensembles have warmed. The EPS is cold at 2 m and at 850 for most of the fifteen day run. But...the 500 mg pattern does not look like it supports cold on the mean. Now, go to the control and it is a reloading cold pattern with warm in between cold shots. It is possible that is what the mean is depiciting but is just smoothed due to other member showing warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 The Canadian ensemble at 0z is relatively cold, a seasonable look. The 0z Euro OP does not get as far south with the cold as its predecessors. That may be the trend to watch meaning the cold slides to our north. Not great trends during the last 24 hours, but we have seen this back and forth for weeks. We will see what happens once the cold establishes itself in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Models are inconsistent on details, but one thing looks great on all of ensembles if you like winter precip. We have a somewhat zonal jet stream through the South! Long time readers may wonder why I'm optimistic. Did my account get hacked? LOL Long time readers also might remember I like a somewhat zonal southern jet stream. Northwest flow is too dry. A big Miller A bomb may cut too soon. Subtle to moderate systems on a southern jet, with cold air in place, seem to work out best around here. Note I have been here only six winters, a small sample size, but I love the upcoming pattern. Give me a weak-moderate low from Texas with cold air in place (hi press OH Valley) every time. Now, will it happen? At least the right pattern is developing. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 19 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Models are inconsistent on details, but one thing looks great on all of ensembles if you like winter precip. We have a somewhat zonal jet stream through the South! Long time readers may wonder why I'm optimistic. Did my account get hacked? LOL Long time readers also might remember I like a somewhat zonal southern jet stream. Northwest flow is too dry. A big Miller A bomb may cut too soon. Subtle to moderate systems on a southern jet, with cold air in place, seem to work out best around here. Note I have been here only six winters, a small sample size, but I love the upcoming pattern. Give me a weak-moderate low from Texas with cold air in place (hi press OH Valley) every time. Now, will it happen? At least the right pattern is developing. Cheers! Nice post, man. I think you are still feeling good after Eric Berry returned this picks for scores. Ha! Nice TN/Kansas connection there. My worry is that the cold sets up along the OH River after this first shot. But yeah, that pattern you mention would be quite good. I wonder if the models are missing where to place that boundary since cold is low level stuff. As always, great post and thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Some of the best snows I remember were slider snows in a zonal type pattern. What I liked about them is that they tended to be longer duration snows from my recollection of past events over the years with especially juicy systems that inched across the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 40 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Some of the best snows I remember were slider snows in a zonal type pattern. What I liked about them is that they tended to be longer duration snows from my recollection of past events over the years with especially juicy systems that inched across the deep south. Here is one of the bset sliders in my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 18 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Here is one of the bset sliders in my memory. Wow blast from the past, I miss old weather channel. They should do like a lot of channels have done over the years with a "Classic" channel, and use all the old graphics and Mets, for current weather.... Would love to have that storm though this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12z GEM places a real temp of -61.9 in northwest Canada! D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 12z GFS was close with one of the systems sliding across. 1-2 inches north of 40 in the Eastern Valley but Eastern Kentucky gets 2-8 on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: 12z GFS was close with one of the systems sliding across. 1-2 inches north of 40 in the Eastern Valley but Eastern Kentucky gets 2-8 on the run. What temps are you seeing in southwest VA at d9.5 on the GFS? I just want to make sure I am not seeing things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: What temps are you seeing in southwest VA at d9.5 on the GFS? I just want to make sure I am not seeing things... It's spitting out 0 and below for the area on top of a very heavy snow pack. I should have mentioned that SW Va also picks up 6-9 inches per the GFS that run. For whatever reason whenever the GFS sees snow cover of more than 4 inches or so, it spits out 0 degree cold over the top of it. It had 2 degrees near Myrtle Beach a few runs ago with snow pack and 28 150 miles NW of there with no snow the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's spitting out 0 and below for the area on top of a very heavy snow pack. I should have mentioned that SW Va also picks up 6-9 inches per the GFS that run. For whatever reason whenever the GFS sees snow cover of more than 4 inches or so, it spits out 0 degree cold over the top of it. It had 2 degrees near Myrtle Beach a few runs ago with snow pack and 28 150 miles NW of there with no snow the other day. Thanks. I knew I wasn't seeing things. I have -14 in that area on the GFS. Gaudy numbers. Now, time for some 12z Euro analysis which supports the GFS between days 7-10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 The Canadian also bombs SW Va that run, it pops a weak low off the coast and extreme NE Tn and SW Va jackpot with 4-6 inches. In most of Tennessee the system is weak and only produces snow along the KY/VA border areas, where 1-2 inches are shown. The Canadian puts that area in the low single digits as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Still some potential over running showing up on the models in a week or so. GFES is generally below normal for the Valley from tomorrow until day 16 as far as temps go. The op goes from deep freeze to blow torch around day 15-16 but isn't worth paying attention whether it shows cold or warm beyond day 6 or 7 right now. It's showing a ton of variability right now from run to run. Small positional changes on ridges and troughs upstream produce major differences run to run on OP models vs the multi run averages of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 It's not common to get a scenario where it can snow on the backside of a high pressure system on southerly winds, but it can happen. The video posted above is a good example of that. Very cold air is dense and sometimes stubborn to move out, especially at the surface. Good timing is needed and the risk of ice is higher than it otherwise would be. A weak wave with a good moisture fetch is imperative. Too strong and the upper levels warm quickly, even if the surface remains well below. The chance for freezing rain when your temperature is in the low to mid 20s at the surface is NO fun.... There are similarities at the surface to the above video and what some modeling is projecting beyond day 7, at least in the eastern US. It will be fascinating to see how these cold shots play out. It's always possible (maybe probable) we get repetitive shots of arctic air with just enough warming between to rain before the next shot. The way I look at it.............at least the upper mid-south will be in the game for opportunity. Last year we didn't even have a ticket, unless the one to the beach counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 It's interesting to see a more healthy shortwave on the 12z modeling showing up for next mid-week. It really gets its act together once past us and into the Carolinas/off the coast, but depending on the level of cold this could be the first chance at some light wintry precip before changing over to something other than snow. It's within a range that is certainly worth keeping an eye on if the Euro concurs and we can find some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 10:14 AM, nrgjeff said: Models are inconsistent on details, but one thing looks great on all of ensembles if you like winter precip. We have a somewhat zonal jet stream through the South! Long time readers may wonder why I'm optimistic. Did my account get hacked? LOL Long time readers also might remember I like a somewhat zonal southern jet stream. Northwest flow is too dry. A big Miller A bomb may cut too soon. Subtle to moderate systems on a southern jet, with cold air in place, seem to work out best around here. Note I have been here only six winters, a small sample size, but I love the upcoming pattern. Give me a weak-moderate low from Texas with cold air in place (hi press OH Valley) every time. Now, will it happen? At least the right pattern is developing. Cheers! Thanks for your input, Jeff! It will be interesting to see how the time period starting next week plays out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 NMME's looking moist for the Valley during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Two options showing up on modeling and it likely won't be settled in the near term. Option 1 - Cold blasts of air followed by warming just enough for rain, followed by more cold air. Rinse and repeat for the next two weeks. Option 2 - Relies on timing a high pressure movement with a weak shortwave running underneath it producing possible wintry weather (snow/sleet/zr). Not sure where to put the odds, but I'd guess 50/50 as to how this plays out. There might be 2-3 chances coming in that timeframe. The good news is, we look to remain active in the precip department... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 As normal, it's a borderline situation on most models. Canadian blew up on Kentucky that run and did well in North Central Tennessee too. Weak low in north Texas overruns cold air and it hits West and Middle areas of the Valley early in the morning and dumps snow/ice over them. Changes to rain on afternoon warming due to the low tracking right over East Tennessee. Clarksville to Lexington get 3-8 inches. The GFS pretty much nails the Plateau and SEKY and points east along the border with Va with 3-5 inches. We had a similar storm track earlier this winter, but with much more cold air entrenched that allowed for a good front end thump prior to change over. As has been pointed out, players are on the field but specifics are still too blurry to do more than hope they come together for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 This feature has been showing up for several runs in a row. If we can get this kind of look in 3 days or so, it might be time to start the first thread of the season as that will be inside 5 days or so out. GFS potential Canadian potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleTNwx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Quick question...those Snowfall Totals (in inches) what time period do they represent? Central KY for instance...is the model saying 9 inch possible in previous 24 hours? How does the model work? Still new and learning. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, cleTNwx said: Quick question...those Snowfall Totals (in inches) what time period do they represent? Central KY for instance...is the model saying 9 inch possible in previous 24 hours? How does the model work? Still new and learning. Thanks in advance! That is the total accumulation for the forecast hour. In the case of the above posted models the forecast hour is 192. The snow totals you see would be the complete total snow fall from hour 0 to hour 192, if say hypothetically it stayed below freezing the entire 192 hour period and there were no melting, those totals on hour 192 would theoretically be what is on the ground at hour 192. Welcome to the forum!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, cleTNwx said: Quick question...those Snowfall Totals (in inches) what time period do they represent? Central KY for instance...is the model saying 9 inch possible in previous 24 hours? How does the model work? Still new and learning. Thanks in advance! Welcome aboard. That comes from a great free site where you can toggle all types of info. Some of us have pay site totals. If a system gets close, we will sometimes post those(just no the Euro). This site has a set of good pay maps if you don't have a map account. Reasonably priced. Best weather info for this area. We also have two meteorologists who post, Mr. Bob and nrgjeff. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I know that this may also be like all the other things that are used to be analogous to winters for our area, but for many years I traveled quite a lot as part of my work, and it just occurred to me that in many years if the Ohio Valley region got decent early season snow we tended to have better winters. Anyone else notice a pattern with that? Maybe helps keep cold air from modifying as it approaches us. Probably belongs in banter, but the snowfall models made me remember back to driving in 12" snow in southern IL a few years back in early december, and that same year we got both major ice storm and 8 to 10" of snow in the great valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 18Z still advertising some snow 14th/15th timeframe... Its getting oddly consistent in depicting some frozen precip for this timeframe for how inconsistent the GFS has been of the last month or so. Totals have lessened but also broadened in area to cover almost the entire forum with a dusting or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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