Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Thanks Carver. To me it speaks volumes that the weeklies and EPS have been so consistent. Some pretty strong negative anomalies along the eastern seaboard d10-15. No major changes at first glance. PNA is a bit stronger...downstream cold is subsequently stronger. Looks very similar to 0z..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Some pretty strong negative anomalies along the eastern seaboard d10-15. No major changes at first glance. PNA is a bit stronger...downstream cold is subsequently stronger. Looks very similar to 0z..... Very good. Thanks Carver. Do the weeklies come out tonight or tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 21 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Anybody have the eps? Hey Met, I agree with Carvers. The EPS and control look pretty good. Trough axis might be a bit too far east, but all it would take is the PNA to deliver something into the gulf or better yet, a piece of energy that could capture something in the southern jet. Either would likely back the flow and create opportunity. The control wasn't too far off of this at the end of it's run with a beautiful looking PNA that starts building at 264 and only strengthens throughout the end of its run and a piece in the southern jet just lagging a northern stream piece. It's not hard to envision something that could back the flow and create a healthy system somewhere in the southeast. Long way out there, but all in all, still on track for a much better pattern, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Very good. Thanks Carver. Do the weeklies come out tonight or tomorrow? Tonight. They roll sometime after 5:00 I think, maybe closer to 6:00. Tnweathernut may know the exact time. Would interested to see what he thought about the EPS. Edit...his post is above. Ninja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Tonight. They roll sometime after 5:00 I think, maybe closer to 6:00. Tnweathernut may know the exact time. Would interested to see what he thought about the EPS. Edit...his post is above. Ninja. lol, never been accused of being a Ninja. Kind of hard to do at around 6'4'', haha. I will say the flow could turn out to be cold and dry (exception of clippers), but at this lead all I am really concerned with is getting a pattern that could be supportive of something to watch. It doesn't usually snow a lot in the south, so even in perfect patterns we will find ways to "WHIFF". Not sure on the Weeklies. Never around a computer to see when they are coming out, but I believe it's normally around 5, finish around 6ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Good stuff guys. I appreciate the info and context. Yes just get a good pattern and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Looking at the Euro weeklies. 500mb pattern looks very good for most of the run after Jan 25th. 850s look average. BIG step backwards w 2 meter temps. The weeklies have had issues with this all winter. I would consider this run a very average run. Not great. Not terrible. Pattern is there. Temps are not. We will have our chances. Precip above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Looking at the Euro weeklies. 500mb pattern looks very good for most of the run after Jan 25th. 850s look average. BIG step backwards w 2 meter temps. The weeklies have had issues with this all winter. I would consider this run a very average run. Not great. Not terrible. Pattern is there. Temps are not. We will have our chances. Precip above normal. Yeah iv been noticing and I think for the most part we are looking at marginal cold air. I think the gfs has done well at showing this along with the op euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 23 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah iv been noticing and I think for the most part we are looking at marginal cold air. I think the gfs has done well at showing this along with the op euro. The pattern really looks no different than the last few runs. There is even cross polar flow, but no cold air to draw from in Siberia? This is off the top of my head...but the NH(edit: speaking of continents) looked almost totally AN at times, and that has not verified all winter when it has shown that. I will take the 500mb pattern all day long and roll the dice. The weeklies have been consistent in showing a flip. The western trough is gone for good(according to the last few weekly runs). That PNA ridge is there until March if that model is correct. The biggest concern I would have is that the ridge at time expands to the point we are almost under it. Also a few zonal looks... But February is hugely unpredictable as spring begins to exert some influence on the wavelengths and source regions. The CFS...I don't even take seriously at as it is pretty much like a magic eight ball to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The pattern really looks no different than the last few runs. There is even cross polar flow, but no cold air to draw from in Siberia? This is off the top of my head...but the NH(edit: speaking of continents) looked almost totally AN at times, and that has not verified all winter when it has shown that. I will take the 500mb pattern all day long and roll the dice. The weeklies have been consistent in showing a flip. The western trough is gone for good(according to the last few weekly runs). That PNA ridge is there until March if that model is correct. The biggest concern I would have is that the ridge at one point expands to the point we are almost under it. Also a few zonal looks... But February is hugely unpredictable as spring begins to exert some influence on the wavelengths and source regions. The CFS...I don't even look at as it is pretty much like a magic eight ball to me. Yeah I agree. It's can he a toss up. I like the consistency of the eps/weeklies. There are going to be changes from run to run. If we can score once or twice I think a lot of people will be happy especially without good blocking. We have already done it once so I think we stand a good chance at another system or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 hours ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I agree. It's can he a toss up. I like the consistency of the eps/weeklies. There are going to be changes from run to run. If we can score once or twice I think a lot of people will be happy especially without good blocking. We have already done it once so I think we stand a good chance at another system or two. Some places in TN Valley have done well but not every where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Hard not to like where modeling says the pattern is headed. Persistent PAC ridging along with persistent eastern NA troughing. Not tremendously cold showing (yet) and not much help in the Atlantic showing yet, but the blocking over the top around HB is helpful enough to see the potential. Not much of a southern stream, but it is there in the later hours and it's not hard to envision something more robust that would come north. All in all, everything seems to be on track late Jan and into early February (at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 I have to remind myself when I want to see more cold and snow during winter....my latitude is at the northern edge of the sub-tropics. "Tropics" word brings me back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 On 1/15/2017 at 3:26 AM, John1122 said: This snapshot from several years ago is an example of what you don't want to see if you want winter here. This is 384 on OOz GFS with all these features progressing eastward. Kinda heading towards the exact opposite of what we'd want to see, similar to the picture above. The fortunate thing is that it's 384 on the GFS and isn't likely to be correct, even at 500. Sorry was unplugged for the long weekend end after 10 pretty intense days at work.... This post, folks, is a great example of how to use the extended range to talk about patterns and such. This is also great learning tool for those with less knowledge. As a side note, this pattern analog (Jan 2013) also resulted in the beginnings of the TN Valley forum here....when the Southeast forum grief over a terrible winter became overwhelming... I am totally fine with posting a "Look at this snow storm!" on the 300 hr GFS or whatever...just put it in Banter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The 12z operational GFS is beginning to show some pretty cold temp anomalies entering eastern NA after 240h. Been trending that way for 3-4 runs. It is the GFS at LR, so use at your own risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The GEFS has finally in recent runs adjusted to the idea of a PNA ridge. Goes gangbusters after this slide. The ridge is showing up around or just after Jan 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The GEFS has finally adjusted to the PNA ridge. Goes gangbusters after this slide. Looks like headed the right direction right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Looks like headed the right direction right? I think so. Tnweathernut had a good post this morning about it. I would like to some blocking in the Atlantic, but can probably get by without it as we have done just that during some recent winters. Watching this pattern unfold feels like that recent snow in that we have been looking at this time frame for a week...and still have a week to go. Nothing is ever certain w cold at this latitude. Obviously, there are more things that can go wrong than say if we lived in North Dakota. Known pitfalls w a PNA is they can be dry without split flow and the axis of the ridge can be too far east. We will rely on northern branch energy for much of our precip and hope for phasing w undercutting energy IMO. But getting cold in February makes me less concerned about a boring pattern. Kind of like getting the ball last in a ball game and needing to score to win. Good thing is you have a chance to win. Bad thing is it's last chance city. ...DT has a post on FB about possible severe wx next week. ...and yeah, Mr Bob. Agree. Bad pattern brought about a good thing.....our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 The GFS suite is looking much better, the MJO is looking at being in the favorable locations. Pack posted an analog map of Nina years with very warm Januarys and the entire Valley region was below normal temp wise for the Februarys that followed. All that said, still doesn't mean snow here, but of course we have to get cold before that's a possibility any way. It should do that if nothing else. We could see some clippers come by. Last year was a super clipper year and brought pretty heavy snow to the area. Maybe we can repeat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 I will say that during future winters, I am going to be paying attention to the QBO more. Those positive values signal a problem for having a sustained -NAO. With the QBO due to flip and a possible weak Nino next winter(ENSO predicting at this range is iffy at best)...could be a decent set-up next winter. Strongly recommend for everyone to go to the MA forum and reading Ender's work in their pattern discussion thread. Basically, we don't want it to flip yet, even though positive values are not the best set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: The GFS suite is looking much better, the MJO is looking at being in the favorable locations. Pack posted an analog map of Nina years with very warm Januarys and the entire Valley region was below normal temp wise for the Februarys that followed. All that said, still doesn't mean snow here, but of course we have to get cold before that's a possibility any way. It should do that if nothing else. We could see some clippers come by. Last year was a super clipper year and brought pretty heavy snow to the area. Maybe we can repeat that. Agree. The GEFS, even though it seemed wrong, was making me skiddish. Yeah, you folks on the Plateau have to be pretty excited seeing that pattern. Hopefully, we have some winter events to track by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Snow or not, I am thankful to see the good rains that we have received during December and January. Snow is just secondary for me at this point. Though, I do like it to be cold during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I will say that during future winters, I am going to be paying attention to the QBO more. Those positive values signal a problem for having a sustained -NAO. With the QBO due to flip and a possible weak Nino next winter(ENSO predicting at this range is iffy at best)...could be a decent set-up next winter. Strongly recommend for everyone to go to the MA forum and reading Ender's work in their pattern discussion thread. Basically, we don't want it to flip yet, even though positive values are not the best set-up. The -QBO and -NAO fueled 2009-2010. I think though, we're into the long term +NAO cycle. It can still be negative at times during the cycle but is more likely to be positive. Overall it seems to run in 15-20 year phases. The Early/Mid 60s to the late 1970s were mainly -NAO. 1980-1995 were mainly positive. I've read several articles that 1996 was the entry point for the more favorable negative phase and that ended in the 2010-2011 winter. We've not had any sustained or really deeply negative NAO phases in winter since then that I recall. But the last 3 winters the Pac drove the pattern into a favorable state and allowed us to cash in, especially north of I-40. This winter, when we had some cold and snow, it was Pac driven and it looks like the upcoming potential is also Pac driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, John1122 said: The -QBO and -NAO fueled 2009-2010. I think though, we're into the long term +NAO cycle. It can still be negative at times during the cycle but is more likely to be positive. Overall it seems to run in 15-20 year phases. The Early/Mid 60s to the late 1970s were mainly -NAO. 1980-1995 were mainly positive. I've read several articles that 1996 was the entry point for the more favorable negative phase and that ended in the 2010-2011 winter. We've not had any sustained or really deeply negative NAO phases in winter since then that I recall. But the last 3 winters the Pac drove the pattern into a favorable state and allowed us to cash in, especially north of I-40. This winter, when we had some cold and snow, it was Pac driven and it looks like the upcoming potential is also Pac driven. Interesting. 1980-1995 saw some decent winters in NE TN...so right, it is not the only driver for us to see winter weather. When is the AMO due to flip? That may help us as well in a few years. The current phase of the AMO has been an influence as well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Going to drop this NAO index history below that AMO historical graph just for comparison purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Going to drop this NAO index history below that AMO historical graph just for comparison purposes. According to this we have seen almost en equal in plus and negative noa years. To me the nod goes to more positive years as a whole than negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: According to this we have seen almost en equal in plus and negative noa years. To me the nod goes to more positive years as a whole than negative. Here is one that is not just winter months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Here is one that is not just winter months... Yeah seems like we don't have a problem with the nao in the summer lol. Recently it has flipped from summer into winter the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah seems like we don't have a problem with the nao in the summer lol. Recently it has flipped from summer into winter the wrong way. Here is the link for the first NAO graph... https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-station-based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Here is the link for the first NAO graph... https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-station-based Thanks I have read several different opinions on the nao around the board. I'm it sure if we can really accurately forecast the ao or the nao. Since 2011 we have not had any help with the nao at all. We are in 2017 and that looks to continue. I have read where we are entering a very favorable solar period and the amo, qbo, ect, ect. Not to get into climate change but I think we are entering a time of unknowns with patterns, the pv, and different things that are affecting blocking and different weather systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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