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2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion


John1122

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3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I hope that is the neighborhood we find ourselves in around day 8.  You have to be close to the rain to get the best snows.....

Absolutely!  With the storm last year 2 countries south of me had rain for 85 percent of the storm and very little accumulation.  We had 3 days of snow with totals from 14 to 18 inches. That close to rain but big totals.

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37 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

 

37 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I see several people cliff diving in other forums, but the EPS (I refuse to look much beyond day 10) keeps the -EPO and the -NAO in the long range (through day 10) with a bowl shaped trough in much of the US.  Sure, there is a SE ridge, but without that feature everyone would likely go cold and dry (which is possible).  Basically all options are on the table between something that goes just north and gives the mid-south rain, a winter event, and cold and dry.  We always have to walk a tight rope in the south so it's not really worth getting worked up over.  

In a nutshell, I don't see much of a reason to be discouraged this morning.  We are entering our "prime" part of winter and there is cold coming per the forecast maps.  Better than a mega death heat ridge with no end in sight, right?

Excellent summary!  This is as much as we could possibly hope for at this point. All options are indeed on the table as we move towards prime winter weather climo time for our part of the country.

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That moment you realize today is Wednesday and NOT Tuesday.  SMH.   The 12z GFS actually keys on the second piece of energy and not the first (what the Euro keyed on).  If you loop it, you can see the GFS trying with that first piece, but doesn't create any overrunning. It won't surprise me if the first one (day 8ish) isn't something to keep an eye on.  Just a hunch.  Either way, it's nice to see pretty snow maps again.  

GFS loses the cold, enhances the western trough and SE ridge in the long range with absolutely no help from the Atlantic after this big snow, but if it happened that way not sure anyone would care if a big snowstorm happens just before.

GFS 12282016 snowfall output 240-300hr.gif

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Saw a different map posted with a different algorithm I guess in the SE thread with much heavier totals for Memphis/N. Miss/Chattanooga. Generally 10+ in SW Tn, 7+ over most of the rest of the state except extreme NW.

edit: Map above is what I'm referring too. Instant weather's map shows the totals I put out in my first post.

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We know this event is probably going to be coming and going, same with the Euro event that had almost as impressive a snow map but a couple days sooner. Yet when models show a snow streak like this from say, Nebraska to Minnesota you can take it to the bank from a week out most of the time. Not sure why southern systems are so much tougher for models to handle than cutters/midwest systems.

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In qpf's

MEM 1.02

BNA .82

TYS 1.14

Warm nose in CHA,2'm far left,850's follow

SUN 00Z 08-JAN  -2.8    -2.1    1032      45      82    0.00     567     542    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN   0.2     1.5    1029      99      98    0.56     568     546    
MON 00Z 09-JAN  -0.2    -1.1    1023      99      97    0.74     563     545    
MON 12Z 09-JAN  -3.7    -5.1    1027      97      44    0.16     554     533

 

TRI  .80

 

I don't believe it but nice to look at.:snowwindow:

 

 

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The GFES gives our region some pretty good shots at snow too. The OP was literally the perfect set up but there are obviously a number of good ones on here too with another decent 2-4 inch mean for most of us with all of our forum having at least 1-2 inches of snow on the mean.

 

JAN.png



That's not bad at all for this far out.


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The 12z GFS does lose the pattern late.  However, the 12z GEFS has a form of a double block to some extent.  AN heights over Greenland and heights over AK displaced slightly within a global context.  Seems to place BN heights in the West no matter what.  Maybe a feedback error? Really looked like a -NAO persists.  Now, the GFS operational has some business going on with the PV late in its run.  The PV looks elongated.  Is it split at d12?  I am not an expert but it appears there are two lobes? (Edit) To my untrained eye, the anomalies at 10, 30, and 50 don't look like a tightly wound PV.  Jeff predicted that if so.

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Taking a look at the ensembles, the 500mb height anomalies look like the following on the US and Canadian modeling at hour 216.  I will edit to include the EPS once available.  The ridging in the NAO domain holds on the GEFS and EPS (although EPS looks to be moving out) through 240, but not so much holding on the GEPS.

GEFS 500mb Height Anomaly 12282016 valid 01062017.png

GEPS 12z 500 Height Anomaly 12282016 valid 01062017.png

EPS 500mb Height Anomaly 12282016 valid hr 216.png

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3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Taking a look at the ensembles, the 500mb height anomalies look like the following on the US and Canadian modeling at hour 192.  I will edit to include the EPS once available.  The ridging in the NAO domain holds on the GEFS through 240, but not so much on the GEPs.

Hey, man.  What is your take on the evolution of the configuration of the stratosphere late in the GFS run?  You know more about that than I do.  Looks like some changes there.

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47 minutes ago, BillT said:

IF the cold comes in as powerful as it appears it could the snow would be the light fluffy stuff that piles up much deeper than the heavy wet snow...it would also blow around far more and create drifts.

The temps in   troposphere  warm up above freezing,this would be wet snow

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