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2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion


John1122

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6 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Pacific ocean analysis is solid from the mid-latitudes to the tropics. I like the front loaded Dec-Jan with a milder Feb. March I would just copy Feb. SER and Rockies trough going into spring tees up severe wx. Oh wait, everyone is interested in snow...

Caution is advised on the AO which is a shorter-term signal than the above two. I have already declared the snowpack signal worthless without pressure; and, it will not become apparent until November. Solar cycle is weak, but it may take another year to get buried in the min. 

Northwest flow implied by some of the charts looks good for mountain snow, but dry in the valleys. I figure SER is a secondary pattern, perhaps more often in late winter. Key for snow would be to pick up an open Gulf while still cold, in transition between the two. Just plz do not be ice.

Bottom line: It will be colder than last winter, a pretty easy call LOL. As usual in the South, big snow will require some luck with the storm track.

Thanks for your thoughts.  Always interesting seeing what you think of the upcoming pattern. I like a NW flow myself. 

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Thank you Met. Yeah that RaleighWx discussion seems solid. I like the month by month trends, Dec cold Feb milder. My overall is slightly warmer South but their overall concept looks great.

Caution on the Siberian snow without pressure. However it is starting to trend high there, which is bullish. Only issue is first Siberian HP seems to have dumped into China. One of the few LP areas is far eastern Siberia. See if that translates into an Aleutian low / +PNA pattern downstream.

I still think it will be a few weeks. CFS is on fire. We'll see if the Euro weeklies keep the cold mid-month flip, or punts to mild a while longer.

November 2 edit: Griteater posts a solid forecast in the Southeast States forum. One can debate Jan/Feb (I am reverse) but his overall charts match mine very closely. Note we are plenty colder than last year even if slightly mild. Hoping for snow anyway.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

The Euro has been spitting out some nasty cold for the area. The EPS pretty much has us below normal for the next 2 weeks. The CPC has no red on it's map for the 8-14 day period for the first time in over 3 years. The weeklies were below normal for the next month when they ran Monday.

 

http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/11/30/climatologist-dr-roger-pielke-sr-i-cannot-recall-last-time-i-have-seen-such-a-cold-anomaly-forecast-across-almost-entire-usa/

 

The image is the euro map from a couple days ago from the story above.

 

 

European-Model-28Nov16.png

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48 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

12Z GFS is looking good only out to 180H.  Next thursday/friday 2M temps highs around freezing.

Edit: Scratch that out to 198 now and highs in the 20s for some.  Really...  

It is amazing to watch the swings on the LR GFS.  No surprise but still wild.  Repetitive, reloading Arctic fronts on the 12z GFS Op while yesterday it had an eastern ridge and torch.  Big time battle w -EPO/-WPO vs -PNA.  Though the 12z operational had a +PNA by the end.

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12z EPS is out late...but it is cold.  I can't post maps since I am on a pay site....but it is impressive through d15 on the mean.  Bout as good as one could ask for early winter.  What a run for cold.  I will give the middle and west TN folks the honor of discussing the control.  Hey, it is one run...but after this hellish summer, finally nice to see winter.  Like I said, seasonal is good for me.  BN is a bonus!

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33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z EPS is out late...but it is cold.  I can't post maps since I am on a pay site....but it is impressive through d15 on the mean.  Bout as good as one could ask for in early winter.  What a run for cold.  I will give the middle and west TN folks the honor of discussing the control.  Hey, it is one run...but after this hellish summer, finally nice to see winter.  Like I said, seasonal is good for me.  BN is a bonus!

Yeah a great look. Should also be great for upslope snow for the mountains.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z EPS is out late...but it is cold.  I can't post maps since I am on a pay site....but it is impressive through d15 on the mean.  Bout as good as one could ask for in early winter.  What a run for cold.  I will give the middle and west TN folks the honor of discussing the control.  Hey, it is one run...but after this hellish summer, finally nice to see winter.  Like I said, seasonal is good for me.  BN is a bonus!

Control is a nice over running event  6+" I-40 north,2-3 middle,and much lesser the further S you go.That's for west and central Valley.Probably be gone next run though

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17 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

19 BNA ON THIS FRAME

Edit:Believe that would be the coldest temps we've seen all year including last winter if that were to verify

Nashville got down to 12 twice last January. Many of the outlying areas had single digits a couple of mornings. 

I'm not sure what to think of pre-Christmas cold. I've kind of gotten used to warm and dry Decembers. :)

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19 minutes ago, Coach B said:

Nashville got down to 12 twice last January. Many of the outlying areas had single digits a couple of mornings. 

I'm not sure what to think of pre-Christmas cold. I've kind of gotten used to warm and dry Decembers. :)

Yeah you're right,it did get that cold didn't it

Nashville January Weather 2016   AccuWeather Forecast for TN 37243.png

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There some signals for some severe weather mid month.The Control which did rather well in the long range with the last outbreak has been showing it now for several runs as well as the CFS and even the teleconnections.Not saying it will happen or even the same magnitude as the last,just something to watch

www.organicforecasting.com tbsr maps bsr is.html.png

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